2024 is right around the bend.
[READER]( The Daily Reader Just settling in on Saturday night to watch a movie on TV, when word broke that Senator Catherine Cortez Masto had won reelection in Nevada after beating Adam Laxalt, MAGA’s man in that race. And just like that Democrats had, against the odds, maintained their control of the Senate for another two years. The Georgia senate runoff between Senator Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker suddenly seemed a little less relevant. Unless you’re a Georgia resident looking to be spared the shame of having, in Walker, the country’s most embarrassingly unqualified senator. Though a case could also be made for Alabama—even if Walker wins, God help us all—with Senator Tommy Tuberville.
With Senator Masto’s victory, an imminent threat to democracy passed. Immediately, I texted the news to folks I knew who cared, and they texted back. And there was much joy and jubilation in my little corner of the world. It’s important to repeat that all of this took place Saturday night, four full days after Election Day, another indication of the elasticity of these campaigns. They can stretch on for weeks. This time around I wasn’t sweating as much as in the midterms of 2018, when like so many, I went to bed on Election Day certain the Democrats had been rebuffed in their attempt to send a midterm message to Trump. Woke up to realize that while I was sleeping, votes were being counted, and the Democrats had done better than we thought. I like to think we’re all a little wiser, more experienced than we were back then. We’ve learned there is no instantaneous message that gets delivered on Election Day. We have to be patient as the full story unfolds. This concept of patience in vote counting serves as a metaphor for the larger political challenge of our time: MAGA’s not going to be defeated overnight. It’s not a movie with a happy ending. More like a movie that never ends. A ceaseless campaign that starts even before the last one is over. And so while we wait to see who won the House—votes are still being counted in California—many among us are looking ahead. Speaking of which… David Faris, political scientist extraordinaire, came on the podcast the other day and pointed out that 2024 will be even more nerve-racking than this year’s midterms.
I looked it up, and David’s right. Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2024, 23 are held by Democrats. Meaning there are more opportunities for Republicans to flip seats. And two of those Democratic seats are in the MAGA states of Ohio and Montana. Gulp. Moreover, it’s hard to see an easily flippable seat in the ten states where Republicans are running for reelection. Unless Texan voters finally decide they’ve had enough of Ted Cruz. Of course, it’s always iffy to depend on Texans to break from MAGA. Also, Senator Joe Manchin is up for reelection. Can you imagine if Democratic control of the Senate comes down to him winning in West Virginia? Having nightmares about that already. Leaves me looking ahead to the midterms in 2026. That’s how it goes. It’s never over even when it is. Anyway, enjoy this moment of joy and jubilation while you can. Because 2024 is right around the bend.
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