Trick Or Trend

Hi, today we explore: Halloween. Why the US loves it so much, which businesses sell the most candy, and the buzziest costumes. TOGETHER WITH Today's Topics Hello! We’re getting into the Halloween spirit, a holiday that hundreds of millions of Americans, and more people around the world, will celebrate on Tuesday. We’re sorry to say there’s no candy from us, just a few charts exploring spending, the bulky business of Halloween candy and the buzziest costumes. This week’s Sunday Deep Dive is sponsored by [Percent]( the modern investment platform for private credit. Percent specializes in getting individual accredited investors deals in this sought-after asset class — get the low-down on private credit and [Percent]( [Read this on the web instead]( All Hallows’ Eve Every year, neighborhoods the world over are swarmed with little witches, tiny ghosts, and pocket-sized pumpkins, knocking on cobweb-adorned doors in the hopes of receiving candy, before heading home to gorge it all in one go. The holiday behind that tradition actually traces its origins back more than 2,000 years, to the ancient Celtic festival of [Samhain]( in what is now Ireland, as Celts marked the night of October 31 as the boundary between the end of harvest and the beginning of the dark winter. But, these days no country loves Halloween quite like the USA. Indeed, this year a whopping 73% of Americans will be [celebrating]( the hair-raising holiday in some capacity, up 4% from 2022 and some 15% from 2020, when going door-to-door for freebies was the last thing on our minds. Compared with the 56% of [Britons]( and 45% of [Canadians]( who reportedly celebrate, the US reigns supreme in spookiness. An important distinction, however, is between Halloween and Día de los Muertos, a traditional Mexican holiday on Nov. 1 and 2, which is observed by more than three quarters of [Mexicans](. If you’ve got it, haunt it Although [many countries]( observe Hallow’s Eve, no one spends to spook quite like Americans. The National Retail Federation, which has been running surveys of Halloween spending and participation for decades, estimates that total Halloween spending in the US will reach a record $12.2 billion in 2023 — only slightly less than the entire GDP of Namibia — surpassing last year’s $10.6 billion. The bulk of the spending spree is expected to go on costumes ($4.1 billion), decorations ($3.9 billion) and, of course, candy ($3.6 billion). While ‘tricks’ preceded ‘treats’, with Halloween pranks dating back to the [19th century]( giving out Halloween candy became widely popular in the States after WWII, when sugar rationing ended. Bulking season But, modern day Halloween is about as far from rationing as our predecessors could possibly imagine — particularly for confectionery kings like Walmart, Costco, and Target, which dominate the October candy market every year. Although Walmart takes the top spot overall, it's Costco, the bulk-buy, big-box retailer, that sees the most significant bump in its candy share in October, as everyone stocks up on sweet treats on an almost-industrial scale. Indeed, Costco’s October 2022 share of candy sales rose to 8.3% — nearly double its usual share (per [Numerator](. But, while Costco’s famous 150-piece bag of candy might be a favorite for appeasing trick-or-treaters, it may leave peanut-butter lovers disappointed. Last year, one [Reddit user]( mapped out the distribution of the confectionery, finding — to their dismay — only 5 packets of Reese’s, or ~3% of the 10-variety bag. That’s a potential problem because PB cups are America’s favorite Halloween candy by some way, according to analysis by [FiveThirtyEight](. [Sponsored by Percent]( Credit’s best kept secret From the store down the block to world-famous brands like IKEA and LEGO, the private sector spans businesses of every industry and scale. Since 2008, non-bank lenders have emerged as a primary source of financing for thousands of businesses. Private credit is now a trillion-dollar market, growing by >800% since 2006. But, who actually gets into private credit? Institutional investors…until [Percent]( created a marketplace that offers private credit deals to individual accredited investors. Deals can mature in months, and have generated high-yield returns: [Percent]( deals had a weighted average [APY of 18.76%]( as of September 30, 2023. And Chartr readers can receive a bonus — up to $500 on their first [Percent investment](. [Discover Percent, your go-to source for private credit investing]( Disguise upsize For fans of Halloween, working out what to wear can often be the highest stakes decision. The ideal is a low-effort, high-reward costume, which could veer into the grotesque, the witty, and the culturally relevant… or preferably, [all three](. And, in 2023, it seems people are doubling down on dressing up: a record 69% of people are planning to buy costumes this Halloween. But, if Costco cleans up on candy, it’s Amazon that thrives in the costume department, as 44% reportedly head to the online giant for their [costume needs]( first, with just 10% going to specialty retailers. The ghost model One of the most interesting business models is the enigmatic [seasonal pop-up]( Spirit Halloween — which typically only operates for 2-3 months of the year — temporarily inhabiting large unused retail spaces wherever they can find them, in order to shift as much Halloween merch as possible in just a few weeks. And, someone’s job, somewhere, is to crunch social data, and the latest consumer trends, to figure out how many ghost, ghoul, Barbie or Batman costumes they need to stock up on ahead of time — with supply chains reacting quickly to whatever pop culture costumes could be cashed in on. Culture shocks Despite [SAG-AFTRA]( telling members to refrain from dressing up as characters from struck studios amid the Hollywood strikes. The general public, of course, has no such restrictions, and typically can’t get enough of cultural cosplay. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Google data reveals that October has seen a surge in searches for costumes related to the [Barbenheimer]( and Super Mario Bros., the summer box office phenomena — in fact, the NRF predicts that Barbie will be the 3rd most popular adult and 7th most popular child’s costume this year. Of course, Barbie- and Mario-themed attire have been staples of Halloween's past. Oppenheimer… not so much. Costume hype tends to peak alongside blockbuster movie or series releases. But, if you want to know if your characters made a big impact culturally, wait 10 years — if people are still dressing up as them every year, you did something special. [Sponsored by Percent]( What’s the deal with private credit? Top investors (think Blackstone, Goldman Sachs and KKR) have been getting great yields from private credit — privately negotiated loans from non-bank lenders — for years. Now a trillion-dollar market, [Percent]( is the way-in for individual accredited investors, too. [Percent]( deals can mature in months, offering low minimums and [higher-yielding rates]( than traditional stocks and bonds. Add the power of private credit to your portfolio, with [Percent](. Thanks for stopping by and thank you to our sponsors who keep this newsletter free to read! Today's charts were brought to you by [Percent]( which platforms some scary-good [private credit opportunities]( for accredited investors. [Read or share this story on the web]( *Sponsored content from Percent. See you tomorrow! Have some [feedback](mailto:daily@chartr.co?subject=Feedback&body=Hi%2C%0A%0AI%20like%20the%20newsletters%2C%20but%20I%20had%20a%20thought%20for%20you...) or want to [sponsor]( this newsletter? Not a subscriber? 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