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China Should Know This Strategy Won't Work

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Tue, Jan 30, 2024 01:47 PM

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Folks, China is about to play one of the most dangerous games in finance... Its government is planni

Folks, China is about to play one of the most dangerous games in finance... Its government is planning to restrict capital markets in an unusual way. The idea is that this will slow the terrible stock market declines taking place there. [Chaikin PowerFeed]( China Should Know This Strategy Won't Work By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics Folks, China is about to play one of the most dangerous games in finance... Its government is planning to restrict capital markets in an unusual way. The idea is that this will slow the terrible stock market declines taking place there. But it's a fool's errand. And history makes that clear. In fact, countries like Spain, France, Italy, and South Korea have tried this before. Crazier still, even the U.S. has tried it... and it didn't work. The reason is simple. What China is trying to do here is really about restricting speech... or the freedom to communicate how investors feel about particular stocks. If that sounds a little strange, don't worry. I'll explain the details today... Recommended Links: [New Quant Portfolio Goes Live at 5 p.m. ET Today]( "This is how I'd invest $1 million right now," says legendary investor Whitney Tilson. At 5 p.m. ET today, he's posting a new portfolio of stock picks. He isn't buying the Magnificent 7... Or putting an equal amount of cash into each. Instead, he's using the Monte Carlo Method to see which of 4,817 stocks could double your money. [Click here BEFORE 5 p.m. ET for the full details](. [What the Rich Buy Instead of T-bills]( Some of the wealthiest, most well-connected Americans know a money secret... [here's how they're using it for 2024](. Right now, China's stock market is in the midst of a massive $6 trillion rout that began back in 2021. And this past weekend, to try to prop up the market, the Chinese government announced restrictive measures on short selling. As you probably know, short selling is betting against a stock in the market. To do it, investors borrow shares of a stock and plan to sell those shares later with the hope that the price will fall. Then investors will repurchase the shares at the new lower price. The difference between the initial sale price and the repurchase price creates the gain or loss, depending on how the trade works out. Now, some folks argue that the borrowing and subsequent selling of shares creates artificial downward pressure. To a small extent, that's true. After all, share prices tend to move lower when investors sell. But fundamentally, we're talking about an expression of opinion here. Short sellers believe so strongly that a stock is heading down that they're willing to take out a loan by borrowing shares... just to bet against it. If anything, that's some of the most valuable information a freely trading market can get. And that's why short interest is one of the 20 factors we use in the Power Gauge. But most important, China should know this won't work. That's because other countries have tried it before... and it didn't work for them. In September 2008 amid the financial crisis, the U.S. banned short selling. The government hoped that this would stop the market's collapse. As we all know, the ban didn't stop the market slide. Stocks didn't bottom until the next year. After all, short sellers didn't cause the financial crisis. It was the housing and debt crisis and the bad assets it created. Short sellers were simply expressing their opinion about certain stocks and the broad market. The U.S. plan worked so poorly that the government lifted the ban early... Now, you would think China would know better. After all, do you think Chinese stocks are in freefall because of short sellers... or because something is wrong in the markets over there? Well, as I said earlier, the Chinese stock market is in trouble. And with the short-selling restrictions, the government is trying to stop the bleeding. It's a big mistake. The government doesn't have a real solution. But, instead, it can punish those folks betting that Chinese stocks aren't done falling. I'm sure economists have told the Chinese government that this won't work. But the idea of "betting against your country's stocks" just infuriates some people. That's where China's market is at now. It's doing so poorly that the government says it's illegal to bet against it. This isn't a good sign. I would steer clear of Chinese stocks while this plays out. Good investing, Vic Lederman Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 +0.58% 19 9 2 S&P 500 +0.79% 171 246 81 Nasdaq +1.02% 51 42 7 Small Caps +1.72% 714 936 270 Bonds +1.2% Consumer Discretionary +1.46% 11 38 4 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are mixed. * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Energy +4.55% Communication +4.47% Staples +1.88% Financial +1.68% Utilities +1.53% Information Technology +1.27% Industrials +0.75% Materials +0.53% Health Care +0.13% Discretionary +0.03% Real Estate -0.28% * * * * Industry Focus Transportation Services 11 21 11 Over the past 6 months, the Transportation subsector (XTN) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -15.03%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Neutral, with an equal number of Bullish and Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #15 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week. Indicative Stocks [rating] HTZ Hertz Global Holding [rating] SAVE Spirit Airlines, Inc [rating] SNCY Sun Country Airlines * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] ADM +5.55% [rating] CCL +4.55% [rating] ILMN +4.33% [rating] TSLA +4.19% [rating] BLDR +4.12% Losers [rating] HPQ -2.53% [rating] IP -2.26% [rating] STX -2.0% [rating] BBY -1.98% [rating] AJG -1.82% * * * * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close AOS, PHM, HUBB, MPC, NVR TER, CB, EA, GOOGL, JNPR, AMD, META, MSFT, SWKS, RHI WAT, SYY, SWK, PNR, MSCI, GM, GLW, GEHC, EMR, DHR, AVY MDLZ, SBUX, PFE, MTCH, BXP UPS CHRW, EQR No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises [rating] NUE Nucor Corporation Q4 $3.16 Beat by $0.33 [rating] SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Q2 $5.59 Beat by $0.43 [rating] ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Q4 $0.82 Beat by $0.02 * * * * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, [click here](. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call [+1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.)](tel:18776976783), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2024 Chaikin Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Chaikin Analytics, LLC. 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. [www.chaikinanalytics.com.]( Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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