Another Bullish Sign for the Economy

We've had a brutal few years since 2020... Broken supply chains – and opportunities for higher profits for corporations – sent the price of goods soaring. It's shocking how quickly it all changed. [Chaikin PowerFeed]( Another Bullish Sign for the Economy By Vic Lederman, editorial director, Chaikin Analytics We've had a brutal few years since 2020... Broken supply chains – and opportunities for higher profits for corporations – sent the price of goods soaring. It's shocking how quickly it all changed. We can see it easily in home prices. In the second quarter of 2020, the median sale price of a new home was about $322,600. By the peak during the fourth quarter of 2022, the price soared to around $479,500. That's a nearly 49% change... in less than two years. But it wasn't just home prices. Darn near everything got more expensive. Consumers have felt that pain directly. Just a month ago, I wrote that consumers were "[especially miserable]( But now, we're seeing an important indicator change. In fact, consumers are more optimistic about inflation than they've been since January 2021. So in today's essay, let's take a closer look... Recommended Links: ["I called the 2008 crisis on 60 Minutes – here's my newest prediction"]( He's been called "The Prophet" by CNBC. He predicted the 2017 bitcoin collapse to the day... Called the top of marijuana stocks to the hour on Yahoo Finance in 2018... The bottom of Netflix before it rose 90-fold... And the bottom of the Covid crash to the day. Today, he's stepping forward with a must-see warning for the stock market, [and where to move your cash immediately](. [Former Soldier's Chilling War Prediction]( A DC-based military strategist with 25 years of service warns the biggest threat to you and your money right now is NOT a military war. It's something altogether different – and yet, it could change everything about the way you live, travel, retire. and more. [He's telling everyone to take this critical step to protect yourself today](. On January 8, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its December 2023 "Survey of Consumer Expectations." Like the name implies, this report measures what folks expect about the economy. The below chart from the survey shows what consumers think the rate of inflation will be one year in the future. In other words, it's not measuring today's inflation rate. It's measuring expectations. Take a look across the past decade... [Chaikin PowerFeed] As you can see, as inflation soared in the wake of the pandemic, so did consumer expectations for it. This is important because high inflation expectations tend to make folks pessimistic. After all, paying higher prices for everything is miserable. But since the peak in 2022, consumer inflation expectations have been falling. And now, they're even closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. This is important because it means that the pain consumers are feeling is easing. And they expect it to continue easing going forward. We're also seeing that in some important data... Home prices have come off their highs. As of the most recent data, the median sale price for new homes is about 10% off its peak. And used-car prices, another important measure for consumers, are falling. On the lot, used cars cost about 36% less than at their peak. And it looks like these prices will fall even further. Prices at wholesale auctions for used cars are down more than 50%. Inflation is cooling. And consumers are baking that into their future expectations. So what does this mean for us as investors? Put simply, it's more evidence that we're on the other side of the interest-rate cycle. In fact, the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut interest rates this year. And that means the central bank is switching posture from discouraging economic activity to encouraging it. Folks, this is an incredibly bullish sign. Consumers are feeling less of "the squeeze." That means they'll keep spending. And that means big potential for more economic growth ahead. Good investing, Vic Lederman Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 +0.98% 13 15 2 S&P 500 +1.23% 152 260 86 Nasdaq +1.98% 47 37 15 Small Caps +0.99% 667 926 323 Bonds +0.32% Information Technology +2.31% 41 22 1 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are mixed. * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Information Technology +4.13% Communication +1.4% Financial +0.9% Discretionary +0.53% Industrials +0.3% Health Care -0.75% Staples -1.03% Materials -1.46% Real Estate -2.12% Energy -3.04% Utilities -3.7% * * * * Industry Focus NYSE Technology Services 27 7 1 Over the past 6 months, the NYSE Technology subsector (XNTK) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +10.00%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. Top Stocks [rating] AMAT Applied Materials, I [rating] TSM Taiwan Semiconductor [rating] QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporate * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] AMD +7.11% [rating] TRV +6.72% [rating] PYPL +6.01% [rating] AVGO +5.88% [rating] KEY +5.61% Losers [rating] MOH -4.08% [rating] CNC -3.2% [rating] ENPH -2.88% [rating] AES -2.82% [rating] DG -2.77% * * * * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close SYF BRO, ZION UAL No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises [rating] TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. Q4 $7.01 Beat by $1.92 [rating] STT State Street Corporation Q4 $2.04 Beat by $0.21 [rating] FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 $0.99 Beat by $0.09 [rating] RF Regions Financial Corporation Q4 $0.52 Beat by $0.04 [rating] SLB Schlumberger Limited Q4 $0.86 Beat by $0.03 * * * * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, [click here](. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call [+1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.)](tel:18776976783), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2024 Chaikin Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Chaikin Analytics, LLC. 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. [www.chaikinanalytics.com.]( Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.