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Uncle Sam Pretends This Didn't Happen

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chaikinanalytics.com

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Fri, Jul 7, 2023 12:48 PM

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You're bound to stumble upon recession-related articles in the financial media these days... Most of

You're bound to stumble upon recession-related articles in the financial media these days... Most of these articles are warning investors of an "impending" recession. [Chaikin PowerFeed]( Uncle Sam Pretends This Didn't Happen By Briton Hill, analyst, Chaikin Analytics You're bound to stumble upon recession-related articles in the financial media these days... Most of these articles are warning investors of an "impending" recession. The problem is... we already had a recession. Technically, at least. You see, historically, a recession has been defined as two straight quarters of declining gross domestic product ("GDP"). Here in the U.S., who happened early last year. But today, I want to take a closer look at that "recession." And more importantly, we'll investigate what it means for us as investors going forward... Recommended Links: [The Signs Are Clear: THIS Type of Crash Has Begun]( Top experts are calling it: A major crisis is now underway. It's something far bigger and more important than what happens to the Nasdaq or S&P 500. The world's best investors are ready to pounce. And so are a handful of folks who know the secret to cashing in. This crash will create a slew of 100%-plus opportunities... backed by legal protections that stocks can only dream of. It's finally happening. So it's critical that you [get full story here right away](. [FedCoin Just Got BANNED — Will You Be Affected?]( Beginning this month, Executive Order 14067 will roll out the first phase of FedCoin across the U.S. banking system – whether you like it or not. It's the first-ever U.S. government-backed crypto. It's banned in Florida, but if you have a bank account, you WILL be affected. [Prepare now](. In short, as I said, U.S. GDP was negative for two quarters in a row last year... It dropped 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022. Then, it fell another 0.9% in the second quarter. That's the standard definition of a recession. And when it happened, many economic analysts called for an official announcement... But instead, Uncle Sam pivoted. The government basically said, "Well, it's much more complicated than that." Now, I know a number of factors contribute to a recession. But that doesn't change the fact that all financial pros have long considered two quarters of falling GDP to be a recession. We're even quizzed on it. Take a look at the following screenshot... [Chaikin PowerFeed] I took this screenshot from my cellphone on August 4, 2022. It was a practice test for an exam from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"). If you don't believe me, just check out the URL at the bottom of the screenshot. FINRA definitely knows a thing or two about the financial industry. And they're responsible for the exams every investment adviser takes before managing money for clients. For anyone wondering, the correct answer was "2 quarters" as recently as last August. I took the screenshot at the time because of all the chaos surrounding the definition. But even then, the FINRA exam had a clear definition... Two quarters of falling GDP defines a recession. So that means we had a recession last year. And yet, analysts have argued ever since Uncle Sam made the pivot... It got so bad that editing the Wikipedia page for "recession" was temporarily suspended. The experts just can't come to terms anymore. Unfortunately, it's leaving a confusing mess for consumers to sort through. And it's distracting investors from the newly born bull market. But here's the thing... Rather than ask "when" it's going to happen, I'm asking "what if it already happened?" By the standard definition, we've already had a recession. And stocks are up significantly since then. The mainstream media will continue to drum up confusion. And everything you read will point to a million reasons why the recession is in the near future. But history tells us it's in the rearview mirror. And the market is validating that stance. Stay optimistic. Good times are ahead. Good investing, Briton Hill Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 -1.04% 12 15 3 S&P 500 -0.78% 180 239 80 Nasdaq -0.76% 58 33 9 Small Caps -1.62% 516 901 448 Bonds -1.41% — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are Bullish.. Major indexes are mixed. * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Utilities +1.78% Communication +1.32% Real Estate +1.25% Staples +1.17% Discretionary +0.88% Information Technology +0.48% Financial +0.36% Industrials -0.42% Health Care -0.65% Materials -1.92% Energy -1.93% * * * * Industry Focus Oil & Gas Equipment Services 2 19 12 Over the past 6 months, the Oil & Gas Equipment Services subsector (XES) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -14.00%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #19 of 21 subsectors. Indicative Stocks [rating] HLX Helix Energy Solutio [rating] SLB Schlumberger Limited [rating] HAL Halliburton Company * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] BWA +3.96% [rating] SEE +2.47% [rating] GRMN +2.05% [rating] PARA +1.98% [rating] PAYC +1.88% Losers [rating] MRNA -4.25% [rating] PYPL -3.94% [rating] CZR -3.87% [rating] SEDG -3.81% [rating] GNRC -3.78% * * * * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises No significant Earnings Surprises in the Russell 3000. * * * * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, [click here](. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call [+1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.)](tel:18776976783), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2023 Chaikin Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Chaikin Analytics, LLC. 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. [www.chaikinanalytics.com.]( Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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