This Key Recession Indicator Is on the Brink Today

One of the world's most important recession indicators has a near-flawless track record... [Chaikin PowerFeed]( This Key Recession Indicator Is on the Brink Today By Karina Kovalcik, senior quantitative analyst, Chaikin Analytics One of the world's most important recession indicators has a near-flawless track record... In fact, it has preceded a recession every time since the 1970s. That's why we need to deliver a warning today... It's on the brink of happening again. An event like this would normally be headline-grabbing news. But it isn't this time. The world is grappling with other problems right now – [like the ongoing situation in Ukraine](. Russia's invasion of its neighbor is threatening global economic stability. It's wreaking havoc across many industries, leading to much higher prices for food, oil, batteries, and more. As I'll explain below, that's just the start of our problems. The developments in Ukraine don't bode well for this key indicator, either. And if it's triggered, watch out... Recommended Links: [Why 2022 Could Change the Future of Retirement in America Forever]( In Dr. David Eifrig's most important warning in 10 years, he explains why "Retirement Lockdown" could now cost tens of millions of older Americans the retirement they deserve. "Today's market crash is different than any in my 40-year career. For the first time, the very idea of retirement in America could disappear for good," he says. [Click here for the full details](. [No. 1 Opportunity Amid Today's Crisis]( He called the 2009 rally in stocks, the rise of bitcoin in 2014, and 2020's COVID rebound. But now, Matt McCall says his newest investment prediction is the biggest of his 20-year financial career. And it could change the course of your financial future. If you're worried about inflation or a full-blown crash, [you need to see this today](. The indicator I'm talking about is the "inverted yield curve." A yield curve shows the expected returns of bonds across different holding periods. Longer-term bonds typically offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds. That makes sense... Investors want more interest in exchange for tying their money up over a longer period. That's because the longer the duration of the loan, the riskier it is. After all, it's harder to predict what the world will look like in 10 years than what it will look like tomorrow. The problem is... in extreme circumstances, like right now, things can get wonky. When investors are scared of a near-term event, it can send short-term interest rates soaring. That's because lending money in uncertain times is extra risky... Lenders want more compensation for the additional risk, so rates rise. And right now, there's a heck of a lot of uncertainty in the world. So not surprisingly, we're close to seeing an inverted yield curve once again. Take a look... This chart measures the 10-year U.S. Treasury (long-term) rate minus the two-year U.S. Treasury (short-term) rate. You might've heard this referred to as the "10-2 yield curve." As you can see, the 10-2 yield curve has crashed after climbing to a peak of about 160 basis points ("bps") a year ago. It's dangerously close to inverting today – at around 30 bps. In other words, short-term bonds could soon fetch higher interest rates than long-term bonds. It's more alarming that almost no one is talking about this potential inversion today. Perhaps folks are too distracted from what's happening in Ukraine. Or maybe they're just in denial. Whatever the reason, we can't escape the facts... This key financial indicator is teetering on the brink of inversion. And if that happens, the clock will start ticking on the next recession. Now, to be clear, I'm not expecting an immediate downturn... A yield-curve inversion doesn't instantly lead to a recession. The markets could kick higher again in the interim. Or they could be in for more of the humdrum we've seen recently. The takeaway is obvious, though... Now, more than ever, you must invest wisely. Good investing, Karina Kovalcik Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors # Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish Dow 30 -0.37% 6 21 3 S&P 500 -0.48% 78 347 71 Nasdaq -1.11% 6 73 20 Small Caps -0.19% 244 1108 518 Bonds -1.44% Energy +3.06% 16 3 0 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks are more Bearish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed. * * * * Top Movers Gainers [rating] HAL +8.93% [rating] BKR +8.67% [rating] MOS +7.74% [rating] AMZN +5.41% [rating] EOG +5.37% Losers [rating] ETSY -5.35% [rating] EPAM -4.86% [rating] MU -4.68% [rating] MSCI -4.68% [rating] NOW -4.64% * * * * Earnings Report Reporting Today Rating Before Open After Close AAP No earnings reporting today. Earnings Surprises [rating] ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. Q4 $5.41 Beat by $0.85 [rating] ORCL Oracle Corporation Q3 $1.13 Missed by $-0.05 [rating] DOCU DocuSign, Inc. Q4 $0.48 Met estimate * * * * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Energy +5.95% Utilities +1.90% Real Estate +0.11% Materials -1.07% Health Care -1.47% Industrials -1.87% Discretionary -2.51% Communication -2.83% Financial -3.40% Information Technology -3.79% Staples -4.72% * * * * Industry Focus Retail Services 11 61 32 Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -15.40%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #12 of 21 subsectors. Indicative Stocks [rating] REAL The RealReal, Inc. [rating] CHWY Chewy, Inc. [rating] DASH DoorDash, Inc. * * * * Chaikin Analytics LLC is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or advisor either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or with any state securities regulatory authority. Chaikin Analytics does not recommend the purchase of any stock or advise on the suitability of any trade. The information presented is generic in nature and is not to be construed as an endorsement, recommendation, advice or any offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or any kind, but solely as information requiring further research as to suitability, accuracy and appropriateness. Users bear sole responsibility for their own stock research and decisions. Read the full disclaimer at [(. You have received this e-mail because you subscribed to PowerFeed, published by Chaikin Analytics. To stop receiving PowerFeed daily, click to [unsubscribe](. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Chaikin Analytics 201 King of Prussia Rd. Suite 650 Radnor, Pennsylvania 19087 United States +1 (877) 697-6783