It’s going to be a long, cold winter

[Bill Bonner’s Diary]( It’s Going to Be a Long, Cold Winter By Bill Bonner Friday, December 3, 2021 [Bill Bonner] BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We continue our history of [America’s Nightmare Winter](. By way of prelude, here’s CBS News: After California became the first U.S. state to ban gas-powered lawn mowers and leaf blowers earlier this year, more states, including New York and Illinois, are mulling over similar measures. And this from The Washington Post: Roughly 45 percent of households are being hurt by price increases, according to a survey of nearly 1,600 people conducted Nov. 3 to Nov. 16. About 1 in 10 said that hardship was severe enough to affect their standard of living, while 35 percent described the hardship as “moderate.” The effects were most acute in lower-income households, with 71 percent of those making less than $40,000 a year saying they experienced hardship, compared with 47 percent for middle-income households and 29 percent of those considered upper-income. “Most low-income households are already hurting,” said Mohamed Younis, editor in chief of Gallup. “You can only imagine what that’s going to look like in the next few months if this continues to get worse.” This winter will bring hardships for the poorest among us. But today, we look at another winter – harder… longer… and further in the future. What are the odds of a staggering economic collapse… political and social chaos… hyperinflation… and revolution? One in two? One in ten? We don’t know. But let us continue the tale of “history” [we started yesterday](. You decide how likely it is. Recommended Link ["Red Alert" Issued by Little-known Financial Agency]( [image]( Most Americans have never heard of a small federal agency called the OFR. It was quietly created in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis as a sort of "early detection system" for financial disasters. Since then, it has mostly been ignored by the media and politicians alike. But all that is about to change. Because this system just flashed a "red alert"… And one top-level analyst, with a history of exposing political and financial secrets… believes he knows the real reason why… [Click here for more info]( -- Flying Blind In the 2020s, major governments throughout the world were committed to two remarkably implausible policies, highlighted by the news items above. First, they were “transitioning” to a post-fossil-fuel economy, setting a specific temperature target for the planet. Second, they were funding their programs with “printing press” money. None of the major powers – Europe, America, Japan, or China – had any real money. [Featured: The Truth Behind the Global Chip Shortage]( The real money – backed by gold – was eliminated in 1971, when Richard Nixon closed the gold window. Thenceforth, the U.S. government would no longer honor its promise to redeem dollars for gold presented by foreign central banks. Since then, they were all flying blind. And that worked, more or less, for the first three decades. Old habits, principles, and customs prevented politicians and central bankers from running wild. Deficits were mostly contained. “Printing press money” was still a rarity. In the late 1990s, America’s Debt-to-GDP ratio was actually going down. But gradually, time-tested reflexes gave way to empire building, “stimulus” fantasies… and free-money temptations. By 2021, all the world’s major economies were running large deficits and headed for bankruptcy. Recommended Link [The Global Supply Crisis in One Picture.]( [image]( Our world is staring down what may be the worst supply chain crisis in human history. And it’s not something that will just “go away” in a matter of weeks. The previous shortages we saw in 2020 will be nothing compared to what is to come. Bloomberg calls it “Supply Chain Hell.” NPR calls it “Industrial Hell.” The New York Times calls it a “Disaster.” And the true culprit behind this new crisis may surprise you. [Click here to learn what’s causing all this – and how to prepare for what’s coming next](. -- Over-Reliance on Renewables And yet, rather than reverse course and let them recover, policymakers doubled down – especially in the energy sector. Internal combustion engines were penalized. Electric vehicles were subsidized. Power plants were decommissioned. Oil pipelines were shut down. New oil wells weren’t drilled. Storage tanks were abandoned. To make matters worse, inflation hindered investment in all new energy projects. With the political and financial sands shifting beneath their feet, nobody wanted to build new power plants or refineries. Energy from solar and wind struggled to keep up. Unlike oil-fired generators, they were idle much of the time. At night, for example, the solar panels were worthless. And there was no guarantee that they wouldn’t be idle just when you needed them. In theory, you could make up for it by increasing capacity, giving yourself a comfortable “margin of error.” But that would mean an even greater “investment” in new power sources. In practice, it was impossible to develop enough generating and storage capacity from renewables to replace the more efficient output of market-driven, tried-and-true, old-fashioned gas, oil, and coal. [Featured: (Why America Is Failing) — 1,000+ Pages of Evidence Collected]( Supply Strangled By Bureaucracy And it was a matter of life and death. After all, the world only used roughly 50 exajoules of energy in 1900 – to support 1.6 billion humans. By 2021, it was using 11 times as much – to support five times as many people. What would happen when the power suddenly went out? The energy system, 1900 to 2020, was developed in a mostly free economy with – until 1971 – reliable money. It had been built out without subsidies or tax credits… and readily adapted to supply/demand pressures. The post-2020 “transition” system was different. It was directed by bureaucrats, regulators, politicians, and meddlers. It was shaped by government, not private enterprise. But government is very different from the private sector. Businesses earn money by providing goods and services – such as gasoline – at a profit. Government never produces a single gallon of gas. Instead, it regulates… restricts… curbs… and controls. It subtracts, in other words; it doesn’t add. Recommended Link [Musk, Bezos And Billionaires Go “All-In” On $867 Trillion Financial Technology]( [image]( Elon Musk calls it “brilliant.” Mark Cuban says it’s “the next great growth-engine.” Facebook investor Peter Thiel says it will “change the world.” Inventor of the first web browser Marc Andreessen calls it “the most important technology since the internet.” And billionaire Mike Novogratz says it’s so powerful it could even “replace” the New York Stock Exchange! Name practically any billionaire, and they are likely investing in [this $867 trillion financial technology.]( And you can get the ticker at the center of it all for FREE. On average, it’s minting an estimated 22 new millionaires a day. It’s doubled in value this year. And experts predict it could MORE than double again in the coming months. [Click here to get the ticker symbol now for free.]( -- Systemic Breakdown On paper, the supply of energy – much of it coming from highly subsidized, inefficient, and centrally controlled new “renewable” sources – was adequate. In practice, the system – like the Soviet economy – was rigid and brittle. Then, one especially cold night… with no sun… and no wind – and temperatures falling below zero in half the country – it failed completely. The power system collapsed. Valves froze up. Fuses blew. Ice-covered wires fell. The dark passage had begun. Stay tuned. Regards, [signature] Bill --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=It’s going to be a long, cold winter). --------------------------------------------------------------- FEATURED READ [U.S. Government Shutdown Could Cost $1.8 Billion Per Week]( needs to reach a deal by Friday to avoid a government shutdown. And if it doesn’t, Americans could be looking at a price tag of over $1 billion per week. CNN Business has more on this story… [Play the Holiday Season With This One Sector]( you’re looking for one sector to invest in through the holidays, Casey Research analyst Konstantin Ogurchenkov has a suggestion you may not be aware of: An exchange-traded note… MAILBAG Dear Readers respond to yesterday’s mailbag question about the best book they’ve read… and say older generations have experienced a “real history”... I read The Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin. Excellent. I think everyone should read Beelzebub's Tales to His Grandson by Gurdjieff. Also Sapiens by Harari and finally A People's History of the United States by Mr. Zinn. If we had a good curriculum around these books we'd be a lot better off as a society. – Achilles Y. Yes, folks in their 70s, 80s and 90s put the icing on “Bill's lovely cakes.” They have not only witnessed and experienced real history, but their school house education wasn't as indoctrinating as it is today. They are far less prone to addiction to, and brainwashing by, social media than are those… say… 40 and younger. Social media and technologies like cell phones have a place, and in some ways have been a boon to society. But one can't be objective and observe the world around him/her with faces glued to cell phones and the extremely limited and toxic views espoused by those who bring us the social media platforms. Yes, read The Creature from Jekyll Island! But also include other bellwether classics like Brave New World, Brave New World Revisited, Atlas Shrugged and 1984, for example, which, decades ago, gave us pretty accurate views of what we are currently experiencing in our “technocratic society.” They are the “Ghosts of Christmas Future” regarding the direction of society and how freedom gets stolen. Oh! And don't forget Bill's books. – G.H. Meanwhile, other readers respond to the question as to whether Bill should advocate for the abolishment of the Federal Reserve… I think you have brought to us much needed facts about much. Do I think you need to advocate the dismantling of the Federal Reserve? No, I think the tax-paying people who believe that would be done for our best interest should advocate it… Ron Paul has advocated it for years and President Trump advocated it in his campaign, but we never heard about it after he was elected. It seems to appear our present-day government (over the last 30 years) is about power, profit and control. It's definitely not concerning the highest and best good of its people and then of the rest of the world. – Richard S. Of course the Fed should be abolished, but how will that happen? A lot more backbone will be needed than we see now from the current population and their leaders. – Ian C. Which of the book titles that Dear Readers are recommending have you read? Do you predict a “systemic breakdown” in the U.S. as Bill writes about? Write us at [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=It’s going to be a long, cold winter). IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Home Depot billionaire issues strong warning for Americans]( Ken Langone almost flunked out of college, but went from making $82 a week to a co-founding billionaire of Home Depot. He went on CNBC recently to explain a looming problem for Americans and their money. And Langone is not alone… at least 8 other billionaires have issued similar concerns. Why are these wealthy Americans so worried? A former Goldman Sachs banker explains the full story [here]( [Click here to learn more.]( [image]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Get Instant Access Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for daily research. [image]( [The Ultimate Guide to Taking Back Your Privacy]( [image]( [How to Earn Free Bitcoin]( [image]( [An Insider’s Guide to Making a Fortune from Small Tech Stocks]( [Rogue Economincs]( Rogue Economics 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.rogueeconomics.com]( [Share]( [FACEBOOK]( [Tweet]( [TWITTER]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. 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