A bad bet

[Bill Bonner’s Diary]( A Bad Bet By Bill Bonner Monday, March 15, 2021 Caesar: The Ides of March are come Soothsayer: Ay, Caesar, but not gone – Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene I [Bill Bonner] YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We’re having a jolly time here in Ireland. We just finished our quarantine (two weeks after arrival). But the whole country is buttoned down. We’re not permitted to go more than 3 miles (5 kilometers) from home… unless we have a good reason. Whether the lockdowns have done any good or not, we don’t know. But Ireland has only 93 deaths per 100,000 population. The U.S. is up to 163. In any case, lockdowns are okay with us. We work from home, anyway. And there’s nowhere we especially want to go. We do need provisions, however. “Can we go into town?” we asked our handyman, Matt. “It’s a little further than 5 kilometers.” “Oh… don’t worry about it. This is the countryside. Everybody goes more than 3 miles. The roads twist around and soon, you’ve gone 3 miles and gotten nowhere. “Besides,” he added with a sly smile, “it’s three miles as the crow flies.” Recommended Link [Elon Musk’s Latest Move]( [image]( He led a young tech startup into the spotlight. He inspired an entire generation of innovators and optimists. He changed the world. But what Elon Musk has done now… and where he’s “gone”… It’s startling. Where he went – and why – is something every single American needs to hear about. Because he isn’t the only one who left. Something strange is happening in this country… and it doesn’t look good. [Click here to learn more.]( -- As the Crow Flies Stopped by the Gardai (the local constabulary)… in a roadblock: “You’re a bit far from home, aren’t you?” “Not as the crow flies,” we replied. “Now what kind of crows are these? You must be at least 10 miles from Youghal. Must be some American crows. Go along with you… and remember the 3-mile limit.” “Yes, sir. I’m on my way.” [Featured: Urgent briefing about China’s next move]( Marvelous Stone Lodge This past weekend, we took up our regular pastime – building things. Wherever we go, we usually have projects underway. And when we return, we find our tools and pick up where we left off. About a quarter mile from the house was an overgrown, abandoned gatehouse. So covered in vines was it, that we didn’t even know it was there when we bought the place. Then, when winter came, among the vines and briars, we found a marvelous little lodge, built of cut stone, with an octagonal center and two wings. “This would make a great office,” said Elizabeth. And so, we set to work. It is a small project. And we intended to do it ourselves and had already done some clearing the year before. We intended to return to it last May. But along came the COVID-19. Trapped in Argentina, we could make no progress, so we gave the job to our friend, Mick, a local Irish builder. He tore off the old roof and put back a new one… took down the wobbly walls and rebuilt them, pointing up the joints of the others. [image]Mick “pints” up the joints This Is Ireland And now, we are insulating, sheathing… and electrifying. While we can do these things ourselves, we are not good at them. So, we let the professionals continue and turn our attention to simpler, rougher work outside. Specifically, we are putting up a shed, where we’ll be able to stack our firewood and keep a few tools. Normally, you build walls before you put on the roof. But this is Ireland, and it rains a lot. We need to get the space covered as soon as possible. Stonemasonry is fun to do. But it takes time. Instead, we propped the roof ridge on top of the old stone wall… and ran the rafters down to a 2x10, attached to two posts. Builders will notice that the rafters are neither on 18” centers, nor 24” centers. They’re on 1-meter (about 3-foot) centers. Ireland has gone metric. And with no snow load to worry about, and lightweight tin, roofing frames tend to be on the light side, too. [image]A shed in a hurry Thus, in a couple of days, we were able to get the roof on. Now, with some protected space available, it will be easier to go back and fill in the missing stone walls. Recommended Link [Man Who Recommended Tesla in 2018 Says “Now Is the Time”]( [image]( As stocks keep shooting higher, the investment analyst who picked some of the biggest tech winners in recent years – including Bitcoin in 2015 and Tesla in 2018 – and who also foresaw the 2020 crash 45 days early… has now made [another major prediction](. If you have any money in the market, this is a can’t miss interview. Already, over 9.8 million people have seen this stunning video. [See What He Says Here]( -- World of Money Meanwhile… In the world of money, everything is possible. Everything is at play. Nothing is true. Nothing is straight or on-the-level. Everything is subject to interpretation and manipulation, lies and humbuggery. It’s [La Bubble Epoch](. The best of times… and the worst of times. Grand and squalid. An information age, where nobody knows anything, and even the surest lessons of history are forgotten. Over the weekend, the sober financial press began taking stock of Joe Biden’s remarkable $1.9 trillion boondoggle. The Wall Street Journal, for example, notes that the giveaways are likely to become permanent. It is already fretting about the taxes that will be needed to pay for them: A group of progressive lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) recently proposed a so-called ultra-millionaire tax. The legislation would create a 2% annual tax on the net worth of households and trusts between $50 million and $1 billion and an additional 1% surtax on those above $1 billion. [Featured: ATTN. Gold Owners — Major Announcement]( The Financial Times, meanwhile, takes a more historical view. Biden is “country-building,” it says. And the whole nation is edging away from Ronald Reagan’s small government and back towards the big, fat budgets of Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. And why not? With so much free money available, says Maya MacGuineas, of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, lawmakers are “almost numb” to fiscal restraints. Adds Chattanooga mayor, Andy Berke: “People have been knocking on our doors asking for affordable housing, job training and enhanced transit… The public is excited to see the federal government taking action after way too many years of dysfunction.” Recommended Link [Millionaire’s Big Prediction From Living Room Couch]( [image]( Teeka Tiwari – America’s No. 1 Investor – just made an outrageous prediction. Recorded live from his living room couch… He blasts Congress, reveals nasty truths about America… And reveals one technology set to radically change our nation. Already, 400,000+ viewers have checked it out. WARNING: This video may make you furious. [Watch His Urgent Video Now]( -- No Turning Around At least The Economist notices the cliff ahead. Yet, though today’s policymakers have a guaranteed place in economic history, they may not come to be seen as heroes. That is because America is running an unpredictable three-pronged economic experiment that features historic levels of fiscal stimulus, a more tolerant attitude at the Fed[eral Reserve] towards temporary overshoots in inflation, and huge pent-up savings which no one knows if consumers will hoard or spend. This experiment has no parallel since the second world war. The danger for America and the world is that the economy overheats… Mr. Biden’s stimulus is a big gamble. If it pays off, America will avoid the miserable low-inflation, low-rate trap in which Japan and Europe look stuck. Other central banks may copy the Fed’s new target. Massive fiscal stimulus may become the normal response to recessions. The risk, however, is that America is left with rising debts, an inflation problem and a central bank facing a test of its credibility. Big gamble? What are the odds? No, there’s no theoretical reason to think that real output can be replaced with fake money. No, there’s no example in history where money-printing has proven successful at creating sustained, real economic growth and prosperity. No, there’s no way to stop the money-printing. Households, businesses, and the government now rely on it. No, there’s no painless way to return to normal interest rates and normal fiscal/monetary policies. No, there’s no plausible reason to think that this won’t end in disaster, just like every other episode of runaway money-printing in history. But heck… this is La Bubble Epoch… everything is possible… even things that are impossible. Hand out $1.9 trillion in money you don’t have… to people who don’t need it, haven’t earned it, and don’t deserve it? No one will lend you that much, so just print it up yourself. A gamble? Perhaps. But we’ll take the other side of that bet. Regards, [signature] Bill --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=A bad bet). --------------------------------------------------------------- FEATURED READS [A Breakdown of States’ Benefits in the “American Rescue Plan”]( week, President Biden approved the next round of U.S. COVID-19 stimulus. The money is already being distributed to states, with Texas, New York, and California receiving a large portion of the aid. Learn more [here](... [Silver Is Gearing Up for a Long-Term Rally]( you’re anything like Bill, you appreciate hard investments – ones that you can “stub a toe on,” as he says. Silver is one of those investments. And our colleagues at Casey Research say now’s a good time to get in... MAILBAG Dear readers share their thoughts on Thursday’s Diary, “[Biden Delivers a Sucker Punch](... It’s an ill wind that blows no one any good, Bilbo Baggins said. Our business was an “essential” business in the transportation field. We sell parts for antique vehicles, but I suppose someone would use them for transport still. Your question about wages increasing, however, was what interested me. We were able to share the 35% increase in sales for 2020 with our staff in the form of performance bonuses and a pay raise. That along with tax “reform” gave my staff added purchasing power. Alas, that is being eroded rapidly with increased costs for everything. Our business imports most products and now, we find that shipping costs and times have increased alarmingly. We were fortunate enough to have banked a large part of the increase for 2020. We find now that we are using that to pay the much higher cost of doing business. Frightening times, indeed. – Bill G. Trump made it possible for my company to prosper. Tax savings were everywhere, including in the fact that we could keep 20% of our profits untaxed, to use as we wish. Gas was low, which helped me with my business expenses. My clients who have been in business, like us, for 15-20 years, said the past four years were the best. I am saddened that Biden has three and a half years to continue to crush all gains we made. The COVID-19 epidemic won’t be the only thing setting us all back. Praying for God to intervene in this mess! – Laura W. I believe it’s time for Biden to not just be impeached, but sent to prison with all of his conspirators. Treason; his anti-American, anti-Christian and anti-Jew rhetoric; discrimination against age and race; impoverished Americans; and criminal, inhumane treatment of children cannot be tolerated if this country intends to continue the spirit of our Constitution and Bill of Rights. He shames America, our founding fathers, God, and the flag, and betrays our service men and women. – James D. And another shares his own inflation experience after Wednesday’s essay, “[Up in Smoke](... When I was young, I collected stamps. My parents and grandparents would buy me foreign stamps from time to time. I received some German stamps from the 1920’s, and I wondered why a stamp could cost millions of marks to mail a letter. I never forgot that and studied why that came to be. As I got older, and had a car, gas was 25 to 30 cents a gallon. A silver dollar would get me about four gallons of gas. Today, that same silver dollar will get six to seven gallons, but you will need about 3 of the paper dollars to get one gallon. Hmmm, no mystery here! Most of my cash assets are where they should be: in gold and silver. I sleep very well at night. Stocks, bonds, and cryptos are either paper or ones and zeros. There is only one room in my home where paper is useful, and ones and zeros are simply smoke and mirrors. – Brian S. Where are you keeping your cash assets so they’re safe from monetary policy? How are you protecting yourself in these “frightening times,” as Bill G. says? Write us at [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=A bad bet). IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [The Rules Have Changed Against You]( Global Elites like George Soros, the IMF, the World Economic Forum, and leftist think tanks in Washington call to end capitalism… And replace it with a socialist economy and their one-world currency. It’s not Bitcoin, the yuan, or any fiat currency you’ve heard of… But if approved, it could cut your savings, your retirement accounts, and even devalue your property by a third. It’s the “Great Reset” of the American way of life. That’s why you must see [this briefing]( while you still can. It’s your best chance to fight back and protect your livelihood. [Click Here Now To Learn How To “Escape the Reset”]( [image]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Get Instant Access Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for daily research. [image]( [How to Earn Free Bitcoin]( [image]( [The Trader’s Guide to Technical Analysis]( [image]( [An Insider’s Guide to Making a Fortune from Small Tech Stocks]( [Rogue Economincs]( Rogue Economics 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.rogueeconomics.com]( [Share]( [FACEBOOK]( [Tweet]( [TWITTER]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Rogue Economics welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. 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