[Bill Bonner’s Diary](
No Way Out of the CalchaquÃ
By Bill Bonner
Monday, August 24, 2020 –Week 24 of the Quarantine
[Bill Bonner]
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – “The whole province is locked down again,” said the friendly policewoman on Saturday. “No internal travel without permission.”
To bring new readers up to speed, we came down to Argentina in early March to visit our ranch. The day after we arrived, the country sealed its borders and stopped all international flights. We’ve been here ever since.
But it’s been an idyllic confinement for us. It was as if we had washed up on a lush, uninhabited island – with plenty of good food, the best wine in the world, warm sun, cool nights – and a Wi-Fi connection.
And suddenly, we discovered the most precious thing of all – time. With nowhere to go and no one to see, we could do things we always meant to do… always wanted to do… but never had the time.
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Dumb Luck
This weekend, for example, we took a long ride on horseback and had a picnic on the riverbank, overlooking an 18th-century church on the other side of the river.
We’ve also had time to read, write… and learn to play the piano. It just happened – again, by dumb luck – that a friend was trying to get rid of a huge, antique piano, which ended up in our living room.
Every day we practice, as Elizabeth, discreetly, takes a long walk… or cringes.
We can almost hear her saying: “No… no… E flat… not F sharp… Oh no… he’s lost the rhythm again… Ouch!”
We’ve labored our way through two tango pieces – one by Carlos Gardel and the other by Cacho Castaña.
“Oh… tango… Is that what they were?” asked Elizabeth cruelly.
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Locked Down Again
A week ago, it looked like our pleasant confinement was coming to an end.
Argentina was opening up. Since July, travel had been allowed internally. International airlines were supposed to resume “normal” operations next month.
But then, on Saturday came word that more cases of the coronavirus had been discovered “in the city” (Salta)… so they locked down the whole province again.
“I don’t know how long we can keep doing this,” the pretty policewoman offered a comment. “Every time we try to open up, the virus hits us. It doesn’t seem to go away.”
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Costs of the Lockdown
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the costs of the Lockdown mount up. The Washington Post:
If the unemployment rate stays around 10 percent and no new stimulus is delivered, said Zach Parolin, a researcher at Columbia University, “we can expect poverty rates to rise and climb higher than those observed in the Great Recession.” The poverty threshold for a family of four is $26,200, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Data collected by the Census Bureau capture the financial pain. For the week that ended July 21, the most recent numbers available, roughly 29 million U.S. adults – about 12.1 percent – said their household sometimes or often didn’t have enough to eat the preceding seven days, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Nearly 15 million renters said they were behind on rent during the same period.
If the unemployment rate stays around 10 percent and no new stimulus is delivered, said Zach Parolin, a researcher at Columbia University, “we can expect poverty rates to rise and climb higher than those observed in the Great Recession.” The poverty threshold for a family of four is $26,200, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
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But there are other costs, too. Bloomberg:
An Epidemic of Depression and Anxiety Among Young Adults
Young adults, in particular, are getting more depressed and anxious as SARS-CoV-2 uproots whatever budding life plans they’d been nursing.
It’s long been clear that Covid-19, like any major disaster, is causing an increase in mental-health disorders and their accompanying evils. Those range from alcoholism and drug addiction to wife beating and child abuse.
In the U.S., the national rate of anxiety tripled in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2019 (from 8.1% to 25.5%), and depression almost quadrupled (from 6.5% to 24.3%). In Britain, which has also had a severe outbreak and a long lockdown, depression has roughly doubled, from 9.7% of adults before the pandemic to 19.2% in June.
…older adults had already built their lives before the pandemic – with routines, structures, careers and relationships to fall back on. The young had not, and were just embarking on that adventure when Covid-19 struck.
In many cases, the result is a spike in suicides. Roll Call:
Los Alamos [New Mexico] has seen an increase in suicides during the pandemic, rising from just two last year to triple that many so far this year… Cook County, Illinois, and Fresno, California, are among those reporting similar spikes, with suicides up 13 percent in Cook County so far compared with the same period last year. In Fresno, suicides were 70 percent higher in June than in the same month last year.
CDC Director Robert Redfield also commented in July on a spike in suicides.
“There has been another cost that we’ve seen, particularly in high schools. We’re seeing, sadly, far greater suicides now than we are deaths from COVID. We’re seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose,” said Redfield.
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It will happen at one specific moment in 2020.
At 9:29 AM, your life will be normal. By 9:30 AM, nothing will ever be the same.
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Fortunately, the number of COVID deaths in the U.S. is declining. The virus was, as far as we know, an act of God. It will pass in God’s good time.
But the Lockdowns are acts of government. Like the War on Terror, the War on Drugs, the Federal Reserve, and Amtrak… they will plague us for decades to come.
Stay tuned.
Regards,
[signature]
Bill
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Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=No Way Out of the CalchaquÃ).
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MAILBAG
Bill’s Diary makes one dear reader reconsider his political beliefs…
Thanks for your continued writing – your style conveys important information while jabbing people’s closely held beliefs across the spectrum – conservative, liberal, marxist… You name it, you tag them all. Which makes reading your stuff so delightful. I myself have felt the occasional jab. That, sir, is what is needed to bring about reconsidering what one is thinking. So thank you for the bumps in the thought-road you provide. Also very entertaining; it’s like a left jab, right jab, right cross, then powerful uppercut to deliver the knockout. Love it.
– Robert W.
In Thursday’s missive, “[On the Trail of Stolen Property]( Bill investigated where the rich got their money: Federal Reserve intervention. But a dear reader disagrees with his conclusion…
There are two things, either said or implied, in your essay that I must disagree with. First, the rich are perfectly willing to share their “fat cat” bonuses and other ill-gotten gains. They have their living made and enough protected assets that any “tax” on their gains is seen as a paltry amount. If the “tax” gets insufferable, they can hire a battery of lawyers to ask the taxing authority, “By what authority do you levy a tax on my private property?” And presto, the tax is lifted.
The rich have lived outside of regulation for so long, they consider it their right. All they want is the fair advantage they are entitled to because they are rich. They don’t mind playing in a rigged game as long as it is rigged in their favor. If someone is so poor they can’t afford bread, then let them eat cake.
Second, the poor are poor, not because of the unequal distribution of wealth. They are poor because they have no remedy with which to get relief. They have no forum in which they can get their contracts enforced. They are poor because they have no access to the law. The fruits of their labor are taxed away with the use (and threatened use) of physical or legal coercion, and they have neither remedy nor relief. The courts are closed to them. They are never allowed to garner assets of any real value.
As I see it, it is the unequal distribution of remedy that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. The laborer is taxed for his work and has no forum in which to get his labor contract adjudicated. The laborer has no peaceful means to get relief. Maybe we should reverse the communist’s motto and say, “To each all they have earned. From each all they contractually owe.”
– Ernest A.
Meanwhile others defend their views on the COVID-19 situation…
I still believe you are understating the damage the virus is doing, and not just to old people. Normal flus don’t result in overwhelmed hospital ICUs and ventilator shortages. They don’t result in organ and tissue damage in young, healthy people. Or stroke syndromes and skin ailments. Londoners in the blitz had little choice but to buckle up and tough it out. The U.S. had choices to listen more diligently to medical professionals and achieve sickness, hospitalization, and death rates more in line with other modern nations.
With 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. has 25% of COVID cases and over 15% of deaths. That’s not really a result of poor policy; it's a result of stupidity.
– Gary M.
COVID-19 is the biggest scam and error ever to be perpetrated on the American people. Prevention is easy: Don’t hang out with fools, wash your hands frequently, and keep them off your face. Notice I didn’t mention masks, isolating, or hand sanitizer or gloves. I’m 67, have COPD, and am more afraid of getting run down by a Florida driver than I am of catching the China virus. I haven't had the flu or a cold in 20 years because I’ve always lived that way.
– Thomas D.
And finally, one dear reader unpacks the two problems he sees in America…
The first, as you preach about every day, is the financial mess our “leaders” have gotten us into. Second, we face unprecedented dishonesty and stupidity, being led by the ridiculous ideas proposed by the left. If you look at the key principles of totalitarian governments, you find central leadership (dictator or small group) and government control of the production and distribution of goods. This country is not immune from a Fascist government. Simply let the Democrats control the Executive and Legislative branches.
For government control, the federal government already sucks almost 20% of GDP. Add health care, energy control, and the massive sub-industries that relate (transportation, factory production, etc.) and guess where we are? They also condone violence in the streets (anyone remember civics and the primary responsibility of government?), taking our guns (how about a Constitutional convention for this?), removing the police, and any number of race solutions that have already failed over the last 60 years. Do us a favor and address this stuff. Not criticize. Analyze and suggest better ways. In another five years, you won’t be allowed to write your daily commentaries.
– Richard B.
Are the poor, poor because they are unable to gain relief, as Ernest believes? Has America’s stupidity contributed to a higher number of COVID-19 cases? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.
IN CASE YOU MISSED ITâ¦
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In the Emergency Investment Summit (it took place on Wednesday, May 20th), Bill Bonner revealed where he had put more than 70% of his liquid net worth⦠and why time is running out for you to make similar moves.
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