Surprise attack

[Bill Bonner’s Diary]( Surprise Attack By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners I wouldn’t panic. Investors should stay in the long term. Goldilocks is alive and well. – Current Presidential Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow on December 11, 2007 Coronavirus is well contained. – Kudlow on February 25, 2020 [Bill Bonner] SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – We considered writing a special April Fools’ issue of the Diary. But nothing we could think of was as sensational as actual events. After its surprise attack on Wuhan in December, the virus has now spread its deadly invaders throughout most of the world. Everywhere, governments call out the troops, lock down their cities, and fortify their borders. Still, the enemy is showing rapid gains. The number of casualties in the U.S. is already greater than those in China, and the number of cases in the greater New York City area are more than those in China’s Hubei province. Recommended Link [Wednesday, April 8th: State of 5G Summit With Silicon Valley Insider Jeff Brown (Details below)]( [image]( In this one-of-a-kind event, Jeff will reveal: - Why the virus has shined a spotlight on 5G in Washington and is helping push the 5G rollout into a whole new growth phase. - Why a series of small stocks could soar 10x or more during this next phase [Register here for FREE]( -- The Financial Toll Current estimates suggest that around 240,000 Americans will die from the disease. Every year, about 3 million Americans die. So that’s only an 8% increase. But while the death toll rises modestly, the financial toll soars. [Why a series of small stocks could soar 10x or more during this next phase of the 5G boom.]( Here’s the latest from CNN: The economy is cratering deeper than we have seen in our lifetimes. Layoffs are coming so quickly, the state unemployment offices can't keep up. Banks are flooded with calls about upcoming mortgage and loan payments. Downtowns are deserted, malls are closed, bars are empty, and airplanes are grounded. A sudden stop in the economy so severe, Goldman Sachs economists now forecast real GDP growth of negative 9% in the first quarter and down an astonishing 34% in the second. The biggest economy in the world has stopped. And it might not start up anytime soon. Here’s more from Bloomberg: Beyond that, there is an array of questions for economists to grapple with -- and those doubts increasingly undermine projections for what’s known as a “V-shaped recovery,” in which lost output is quickly restored. Rather than sounding a decisive “all clear,” health authorities seem likely to advocate a gradual return to normal working life, so the behavior known as “social distancing” may stick around. Along with financial blows sustained during the downturn, that is likely to damp spending on travel or spending at shops or restaurants -- assuming those businesses can stay afloat in the first place. 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[5G’s Secret Engine Revealed in 2020.]( Meanwhile, the noose around all of their necks grows tighter. They fall behind in payments – for loans, cars, houses. And money grows scarce. Credit card interest rates are rising. So are mortgage rates. Forbes: According to data released this morning from the Mortgage Bankers Association, interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loans averaged 3.82% over the last week—up from 3.74% the week prior and 3.29% at the start of the month. It is not the virus that will do the most long-lasting damage. It is the feds’ war against the win-win economy. And here, the fog of war grows dense… Lost in the Smoke Why – in light of this calamity – is the federal government undermining its own finances by printing up more than $2 trillion in emergency “relief”? How does that help? What’s this fight really about? How do we hope to win? Lost in the smoke is any clear strategy or fragment of common sense. Supposedly, to counter the molecule’s advance, the feds have attacked the economy itself. They’re blasting away at honest savers, balanced budgets, trust, real price signals, true money… and all of the other things that make a real economy work. And not just with temporary closures and social distancing. They’ve opened fire with monetary and fiscal bazookas, larger than any ever before seen in human history. The Fed is “printing” $125 billion a day. And the government is handing out money all over town. In addition to the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, Donald Trump is proposing another $2 trillion for infrastructure. Money for businesses. Money for bridges. Money for Democrats. Money for Republicans. Money for geniuses. Money for retards. Money for people who work. Money for people who don’t. Money for the Kennedy Center for Performing Arts. Money for cronies. Money for chiselers and scoundrels. Even help for sunscreen makers. 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Instead of getting back to work, people angle and connive to get the dead presidents. But almost everybody thinks that this time… in spite of the entire historical record to the contrary… it will be different. And here at the Diary, we’re still stuck on the theory behind it. Imagine an island, half of whose citizens have been killed by a tsunami. The survivors pick through the rubble. They salvage what they can. They bury the dead. They prepare to get back to work. The island had a total money supply of only $2,000… but half of it has been swept away. Their government, gracious and good, comes to the rescue. It prints up another $1,000 and hands it out all over town. How does that do anyone any good? Do the losses disappear? Do the dead come back to life? Does the weather improve? The extra currency merely confuses the picture… like a smoke grenade… giving some people a windfall, while others (savers… creditors) step on the feds’ landmines. The whole spectacle is breathtakingly absurd. And alarming. We only hope to live long enough so that one day we’ll be able to laugh at it. Regards, [signature] Bill Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. [Chart]( MAILBAG Today, one Dear Reader responds, after Peter M. said: Let people work… Yes, there will be deaths no matter what. It’s inevitable. As Bill has said, throwing money at the problem after destroying the economic livelihood of those who provide taxes will, in the end, cause a massive economic train wreck! It will make the virus look like a walk in the park. – Peter M. So when does a pandemic end? When it no longer has a host to infect or there is a vaccine developed. If the virus could have been controlled at the source, then of course we wouldn't have a pandemic. So we are out 12 to 18 months for a return to normal, no matter what the leaders think they can do to buy off the virus. The precautions are to slow the spread so the health care system does not collapse, and try to manage the anarchy that will arise if the system gets overwhelmed. So just letting the pandemic go wild is not a good choice. If you did, then you would see an immediate loss of freedom and likely Martial Law, and from that standpoint all your freedoms would be lost. – Steven F. While other Dear Readers offer their thoughts on the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic… Maybe globalization wasn’t such a great idea. Reverse globalization policies. Wake up and produce everything locally that can be. The environment will also be a beneficiary. Vastly reduced shipping costs, etc. We’ll all be better off. – Edward B. We are in assisted living facilities and are observing “lockdowns.” The staff comes and goes in the real world while we are locked in – and they don't wear masks. We, on the other hand, must wear masks if we go into another adjoining building! Meanwhile, we seniors in lockdown with no visitors, sit in our “Bored Room” and mutter as we shake our heads, on what is taking place. To kill a virus, we oldsters know: washing hands, social distancing, and waving at one another do not spread germs. We didn't need the CDC to tell us that! AND WE ARE HELPLESS. – Ann G. Would letting the coronavirus pandemic “go wild” result in a loss of American freedom, as Steven believes? Is the pandemic hyped up because of media madness, as Ann says? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Does anyone have a treatment for COVID-19?]( There’s some good news… [One of the U.S. government’s favorites in the race to treat COVID-19 has been found.]( In years past, this company’s drug was authorized to treat the Ebola virus. And this year, they’ve announced a government partnership to develop therapeutics designed to treat COVID-19. [Watch this short video with more details about COVID-19 and the stock market](. 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