[Bill Bonner’s Diary](
Catastrophe Strikes the Calchaqui
By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners
[Bill Bonner-95]
SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Last night at midnight, a ban went into effect here in the Calchaqui Valley. (As it did in California.)
We were already under house arrest. Now, everyone is.
Caesar’s Decree
Yes, a decree went out from Caesar over all the land. People are to return to their homes and shelter there for a fortnight.
A panicky pow-wow was held on our porch. “What are we going to do?” asked our capataz (foreman).
“You can’t stop working,” pointed out a neighbor who had ridden over on horseback to see if we needed anything. “The cattle must be fed. We’re farmers, we have to work no matter what the government says.”
“I know,” continued the capataz. “The grapes are ready to harvest. If they don’t get picked next week, the whole year’s production may be lost.
“But the road up to the ranch is so bad that the truck can’t get up there to pick up the grapes. I called the local government. They said they couldn’t do anything because everyone is supposed to stay home.
“And our grape pickers come from a different town, so they’re not supposed to come up to the ranch.
“And if you get caught out on the road, they’ll put you in jail. At least, that’s what they’re saying.”
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Economic Crisis
Grapes not picked. Wine not made. Bottles not shipped… nor stocked on shelves… nor bought by consumers. Even in our dinky operation it still represents a whole year’s worth of work – lost.
Calchaqui wine may become even rarer than we thought. Fortunately, [Will still has some in a California warehouse](.
Sales revenue is used to pay wages… buy fuel… and keep the enterprise going. Now, it may disappear. Multiply that by millions or billions, and you have today’s economic crisis.
All over the world, restaurant ovens are cold. Factories are as quiet as churchyards. (The big automakers announced yesterday that they were halting their assembly lines.)
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Unearned wages are unspent. And the Bank of America says a recession has already begun.
All of a sudden, the economy that depended on “more” finds itself with a lot “less.”
Taxes are not paid on profits not made on sales of products never produced by workers not working, truckers not trucking, and buyers not buying. And we are just at the beginning.
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What Lies Ahead
So here is the executive summary… our best guess about what lies ahead:
The world of getting and spending is shutting down. Without revenue, neither businesses, households, nor the government will be able to pay their bills.
Stocks will rise (“a dead cat bounce”, the old timers call it) on all the “bailout” news, and then give up another 50% of their value.
Business will default on its $16-trillion-debt pile. Millions of people will lose their jobs. The Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, says that upwards of 20% of the workforce could be unemployed.
The feds will print money by the trillions to rescue the situation. Spending will rise. But lower output… and more currency in circulation… will raise prices.
In the summer, the virus will slow down. Then, the economy will begin to recover. But people all over the world will begin to mistrust the dollar (and other “paper” currencies). Prices will rise as real growth is suppressed by inflation fears.
Most likely, the virus will return in the autumn, though there’s no way to know how bad it will be. But at some point, there won’t be enough “cash” to keep up with the rising contempt for it.
ATMs will run out. The economy – still fragile, with interest rates below inflation – will need more bailouts and more helicopter money to keep going.
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Then, the feds will face a terrible choice. Printing more money may bring a hyperinflation, like Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, or Venezuela.
But not printing will risk a deep depression… a “throw out all the bums” shock in the next election… or even a revolution.
What Paul Volcker will stand up and bring a halt to the money-printing? What Ronald Reagan will back him up? What Horatio will stand at the bridge and say “enough?”
The feds will make their choice… the same choice made by [von Havenstein in Germany]( and [Gono in Zimbabwe](. They will print. Stocks will soar as people “rotate” out of bonds.
The bond market will collapse. Debts will be wiped out by inflation. So will debt-based credits.
Scenes of financial depravity, economic debauchery, and orgies of social degradation, violence and chaos – now unimaginable – will flash across every big screen in America.
That is, of course, a future. The future is something we wait to see.
Meanwhile, back in the valley…
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Confined in the Calchaqui
People must return to their place of domicile. And there they must remain for 10 days.
The [carpenters who came to work on our screen doors]( packed up and left. They came from the province of Jujuy, at least seven hours from here.
Now confined to their houses, the Argentines are getting a little stir crazy. Comes this message from a friend:
How difficult it is to work from home! Lots of distractions. I can no longer stand my wife, children, dogs, cats…
In Wuhan, China, in which people have been confined to their houses for as much as two months, the divorce rate is said to be soaring.
But all the news is not bad. Bloomberg reports that at least three U.S. senators were able to avoid stock market losses:
U.S. Senators Sold Stock After Coronavirus Briefings in January
Critics say they put protecting their wealth before their duty to protect public health.
How nice for them!
Enjoy your weekend in confinement.
[image]A ray of sunshine over the valley
Regards,
[signature]
Bill
Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.
[Chart](
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MAILBAG
On Dear Readers’ minds today: President Trump…
Trump has many faults and I understand criticizing a specific issue, action, or some specific political stand one disagrees with. That is politics as I have always known it. But the Trump Haters (and the media) make up their own set of “truths” and then lay down their talking points, regardless of the actual facts.
I can’t have a civil political discussion or debate with any of my liberal/“progressive” acquaintances because they are so emotional (and truly ill-informed). Dialog is impossible.
– Doug L.
The fact of the matter is that Trump IS a criminal, despite his acquittal by the Republican Senate, which was a crime in and of itself. And the only “Deep State” is the one created in the lunatic minds of those who gave us the worst POTUS in many decades, if not since the founding of our nation.
– Gerard Z.
While another Dear Reader talks about the economic burden of the coronavirus pandemic…
How awesome is that to be stuck in such a beautiful place. I envy Bill in his lifestyle. I have traveled extensively, mostly due to my 21 years in the military (U.S. Navy). Take care and remain in your isolation… you guys don’t need to be where this stuff is. Wish everyone well, Bill, Elizabeth, and all the staff. Keep up the good work.
However, some of us are stuck here and trying to figure out how to pay bills and maintain a roof over our heads with the current economic outlook. I currently do apartment maintenance and in the last three weeks, I have had 20, 19 and 6 hours for the week. The Federal Reserve lowered the rate, but for those of us on a paycheck-to-paycheck lifestyle do not get to take advantage of it.
I cannot touch my IRA or Social Security for another two years and due to the current political situation, I don’t know if it will be there when I reach the appropriate age, same goes for my military retirement.
– James S.
Is political dialogue “impossible” for you, as it is for Doug? How is the coronavirus impacting your economic situation? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…
[“Why I flew to D.C. – in a pandemic.”](
Just a few days ago, I, Jeff Brown, went to Washington, D.C., to film an emergency broadcast.
You’ll have to excuse the quality of the video…
You see, there wasn’t much time.
I wanted to get this critical information in your hands as soon as possible.
In [this video]( I will smash four dangerous myths about the coronavirus, called COVID-19.
I’ll also share details of 10 stocks you should avoid right now. These will be the biggest losers of the coronavirus crash.
And I’ll share more information on one company I think is leading the race to treat COVID-19.
[It’s all in this short, emergency broadcast.](
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