Who sanctions America?

[Bill Bonner's Diary]( Who Sanctions America? By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners [Bill Bonner] YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The Dow jumped over 25,000 yesterday. But unless (and until) it can beat the January top of 26,616, we will presume that the primary trend, which we detailed [last Friday]( is down. And since primary trends tend to last a long time, we further presume that stocks may be set to slide for the rest of our lives. Recommended Link [“I’m DONE With Stocks”… Are You?]( [image]( One of America’s top stock trading experts just made a BOMBSHELL declaration: He’s officially “done with stocks.” And for good reason – since the start of the year, the market made virtually ZERO gains. But he’s uncovered a new way to collect thousands of dollars each week – without having to deal with a single, disappointing stock ever again. The only way you’re going to get the chance to learn how to make enormous profits outside the world of stock investing is by… [Clicking here]( -- Long Trend Down Big moves take time. Stocks peaked out in August 1929. Inflation adjusted, it was not until 30 years later that they fully recovered. They peaked out again in 1966. And again, it took 30 years for an investor to get his money back in real terms (not including dividends). If this pattern holds, the peak in January won’t be seen again until 2048. Good luck with that! Meanwhile, the bond market, too, seems to be sliding. The peak in bond prices came and went nearly two years ago, in July 2016, when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond hit a low of 1.4%. [The price and yield of bonds move inversely.] There, too, the primary trend is now down. Expect it to last a long time. As we rehearsed a few days ago, the last top in bond prices occurred in the late ‘40s. If this pattern repeats itself, we’d have to live to be 136 years old to see the next one. So we presume that we have already seen the one and only top in bond prices that we will ever see… and that the only gain we will get from stocks will be from dividends. Alas, the dividend yield for the S&P 500 last year was only 1.8%. That was about the same as the Consumer Price Index, the fed’s measure of inflation. Real inflation is probably twice that. So an investor holding stocks for the dividend yield is losing money. But there are big trends in the political world, too. Recommended Link [The Future of Money Is Here and It Will Give You the Creeps…]( [image]( This is urgent… New research shows President Trump could be on the verge of issuing [the most controversial executive order since Roosevelt’s ban on gold](. I think you’ll agree that – if it passes – this could be the single most dangerous currency law ever. And there’s little time left to lose. [Watch the must-see video here]( -- Get to Be a “Bad Guy” [Yesterday]( we wondered how you get to be a “bad guy” in global politics. Iran, for example, hasn’t invaded another country since the Achaemenid dynasty went on a spree in the 4th century BC. But it’s been invaded by almost everyone able to do so – Mongols, Russians, English, Muslims, and in 1980, U.S.-backed Iraq. In the 1950s, the country also endured a coup d’état organized by the U.S. Its democratically elected president was replaced by a CIA puppet. So who’s the bad guy? Today, Iran is considered such a bad hombre that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo read it the riot act on Monday. The Associated Press followed the story: The Trump administration on Monday demanded that Iran make wholesale changes in its military and regional policies or face “the strongest sanctions in history,” as it sought to turn up heat on Tehran after President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from a landmark nuclear deal. Unless such a treaty can be reached, Pompeo warned that Iran would face tough sanctions that would leave it “battling to keep its economy alive.” “These will end up being the strongest sanctions in history by the time we are complete,” Pompeo said… Moses, bringing the law down from Mt. Sinai, announced 10 things Jews needed to do to keep themselves in God’s good graces. But Pompeo came with 12 demands. And while the U.S. made a dozen demands, Iran made not a single one. Why the imbalance? Is it because the U.S. has already reached perfection… or because the Pentagon spends an amount equal to the entire Iranian defense budget every seven days? Among the U.S. demands is a requirement to allow inspectors “unqualified access” to all nuclear sites. But does the U.S. give Iranian inspectors unqualified access to its sites? So, too, must Iran release all U.S. citizens held in Iran on “spurious” charges. But will the U.S. release all Iranian citizens held on spurious charges in Guantanamo Bay? No? We didn’t think so. Recommended Link [How Doug Casey Turned $1,875 Into $1.2 Million, With One Bold Move]( [image]( Back in ’93, Doug Casey took a $1,875 stake of money, then made one bold move. Exactly two and a half years later, his stake was worth $1.2 million – a rare and extraordinary 64,000% return. To see how he did it… [Click here]( -- Crime, No Punishment Power, as discussed yesterday, has rules of its own. Reciprocity isn’t one of them. When you can throw your weight around with nothing to stop you, why not? Crime, but no punishment. Up, but no down. Israeli soldiers, for example, can shoot Palestinians. But the Palestinians can’t shoot back. What’s not to like? But power is still subject to the rule of “too much.” When a nation has too much power, like a child who has had too many desserts, it becomes insufferable. Nature needs balance and harmony. Civilization thrives on limits, restraints, and corrections. “Too much” upsets it. When there is “too much,” something has to give. Otherwise, it tips over into chaos and calamity. After the Cold War ended, the U.S. was master of the field… unopposed… on the top of the heap. It could have brought its troops home and cut its military spending in half… or more… restoring some measure of balance with the rest of the world. It could have taken up the America First slogan, minding its own business and being a good neighbor to other countries. It could have balanced its budget, paid off its debt, and devoted its time, money, and energy to building a great country. Instead (and we don’t recall any debate in Congress)… it took another path. The “enemy” was defeated. But military spending still went up, and now sits at $580 billion, up from $355 billion in 1991. The cost of the War on Terror alone is reaching up to about $50,000 per household. And now, all over the world, the U.S. bombs, drones, and assassinates… bullying, bossing, and bamboozling small countries that can’t defend themselves. But who bombs targets in New Orleans? Who drones America’s “extremists” in Kentucky? Who assassinates “insurgent” leaders in California? Who imposes sanctions on America? Americans are perfectly happy with this situation. Neither Democrats nor Republicans resist. But what about the custodians of the natural order? What about the guardians of civilized justice? What about those who make sure people get what is coming to them? What about the gods? How do they feel about it? Our bet is, they don’t like it. More to come… including how America got to be a “bad guy.” Regards, [signature] Bill MARKET INSIGHT: ENERGY HEADED HIGHER By Joe Withrow, Head of Research, Bonner & Partners [Joe Withrow] Energy stocks are outperforming the broader market in 2018… That’s the story today as we chart the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) – which tracks a basket of 31 energy stocks – against the S&P 500 from January through today. [Chart] As you can see, energy stocks fell hard – along with the rest of the market – in February. They have since recovered, and have gained more than 7% this year… while the S&P 500 is barely in positive territory. Much of these gains seem to be driven by supply/demand dynamics in the oil sector. It is reported that 110 billion barrels of oil have been discovered since 2008… but 360 billion barrels of oil, mostly from reserves, have been consumed in that time. What’s more, oil companies discovered fewer than 7 billion barrels of oil in 2017 – the lowest discovery on record. Basic supply and demand economics tells us that energy prices should go up under these conditions… – Joe Withrow FEATURED READS [No Fixing Fannie and Freddie]( Mae and Freddie Mac were taken under federal control a decade ago, after the mortgage giants played a key role in the financial crisis of 2008. But 10 years on, Fannie and Freddie are no closer to being fixed. [Banks Embrace Bitcoin]( been a development in the crypto market. Big banks are diving head-first into bitcoin trading. Jeff Brown, Bonner & Partners’ chief technology analyst, shows what this means for bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. [The Starbucks of Legal Weed]( Investing editor, Nick Giambruno [recently showed]( that mass adoption of legal marijuana is imminent. Now, a sign that adoption is picking up: Legal marijuana is moving away from a “mom and pop” model and closer to a corporate structure. MAILBAG In the mailbag, discussions on higher rates, and [praise for a fellow dear reader]( Fredrick C. wrote that the current form of capitalism in the United States is “greed-based, legalized, economic fraud.” That is exactly what our system has become! Bill Bonner and company should hire this guy! He understands the current situation perfectly! You could interview thousands and not get a person as capable. This guy has that rare capability of sizing up a situation, just like Bill Bonner! – William C. Bravo to Fredrick C. in today’s comments! – Dean H. I am confused. A few months ago, you said we would get below 0% interest rates. Now, you say we will not see low interest rates again. – Kevin L. I remember 1980. I had to quit real estate sales because, at 22% per year for mortgage interest, unless you were an Iranian refugee paying cash, no one could afford to buy. I also remember just a few years earlier, paying about 25 cents per gallon of gas using a silver quarter. (I think you can still do that without too much trouble. Today’s silver melt value: $2.97.) I keep hoping that longer lifespans will increase our wisdom and use of historical memory, and that the internet will promote its spread. I guess that’s what you do with your essays. Thanks! – Sandra K. Meanwhile, after Bill’s use of a certain word sparked debate, a rebuttal from a reader… [One of your readers, Brian B]( thinks I was overly sensitive in criticizing Bill’s use of the word “cripples.” Brian, apparently speaking on behalf of all handicapped persons, says these people call each other much worse. They have that right; but those more fortunate should treat them with respect. And in most contexts, calling someone a cripple is not appreciated and not respectful of individual circumstances or capabilities. I understand the frustration with political correctness, but words matter, and many young people not as secure as Brian B.’s son feel deeply hurt when called a cripple. – Gary M. Editor’s Note: The use and suppression of “offensive” language is a topic Bill has investigated in the past. When is a word truly offensive? And when is it politically correct claptrap? Bill addresses these questions [right here]( and [here](. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… Jeff Brown, Bill’s top technology guy, was at our South Florida offices recently… Just a few weeks earlier, he was at an invitation-only meeting in the Bahamas. Billionaire hedge fund managers, high profile CEOs, and Silicon Valley venture capitalists were in attendance. Jeff told us about [one specific meeting]( he had. The details could make you a fortune with a piece of emerging tech. [Get the full story here.]( [image]( [Bonner and Partners]( © Bonner & Partners 455 NE 5th Ave, Suite D384, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.bonnerandpartners.com]( This e-mail was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. 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