Lose the Plot in India, China and Japan

Plus: A climate change anthem and more [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a handy-dandy cheat sheet of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - Hypocrites who cry “[hypocrisy](!” - Manila is the [aggressor]( in the South China Sea. Really? - [Foxconn]( can get out of the driver’s seat. - Bitcoin for your [wrists](. - Soft power’s hard on [Kyoto](. Think You Know Where These Stories Are Going? Think Again. In a year of big, perhaps history-shaking votes, one set of elections seems to be a lock: Narendra Modi’s bid to stay in the prime minister’s office in India. The world’s largest democracy is expected to go to the polls this spring and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party appears headed for another parliamentary majority. But hold on, says Andy Mukherjee, Modi’s campaign [may have peaked too early](. With no date yet set for the general election (which will take place over several days because of the size of the voting population), the prime minister’s set piece of campaign theater — the consecration in January of a controversial temple in Ayodhya beloved by Hindu nationalists — is fading into history. Instead, the political center stage is beset by a succession of minor but distracting political dramas. For example, during a mayoral election in the north, a local BJP official was caught tampering with the votes in front of CCTV cameras — leading to fulminations by the Supreme Court that may put the fear of the law into over-enthusiastic Modistas.  Andy also points out that an election funding scandal could be [brewing](.  None of this is likely to keep Modi and his BJP from dominating the legislature, but it may dent the size of its majority. Says Andy: “The autocratic leader will likely still be India’s next prime minister, but his party’s goal of winning 370 parliamentary seats out of 543 is looking like a tall order. Even maintaining the 2019 tally of 303 may not be all that easy.” Meanwhile, as Mihir Sharma [writes](, the narrative of India’s inevitable rise to economic superpower status still needs a serious spark. Indian equity markets are on an upward trend, but Mihir says, “it is always unwise to deduce the real health of an economy from the level of its headline stock index.” He writes, “It’s only when more and more investors want to create real factories rather than juice up financial assets that India’s economy will really take off.” He adds, “It is still government actions that are pushing growth up or down, rather than the choices made by India’s private sector.” Always be suspicious of the prevailing plot of economic narratives, [says]( Daniel Moss. Japan is now considered the resurrected star of East Asia while China has lost its shine. But, as Gearoid Reidy [writes](, Tokyo should worry about its automotive sector fighting among themselves as the EV challenge from Beijing ramps up.  Says Dan: “Ideas can come and go, and come again. The mania for Japan may abate if the current bright spot is really another false dawn. China may just be experiencing the emergence of economic cycles that affect every large economy. … So, let's hear it for skepticism. India is now widely proclaimed as the [hot new thing](, a replacement for China as the comer economy. What could possibly go wrong with that narrative?” Music Just Might Keep the World Going Around The great social movements of the 20th and 21st centuries have had stirring anthems — songs that echo from the heart and capture the spirit of the times. Be it We Shall Overcome for the US civil rights movement or I Will Survive for the LGBTQ+ community. Lara Williams [says]( the campaign to save the planet from catastrophic climate change needs one, too. “There’s a temptation to dismiss art and culture’s role in climate communication,” she writes. “But who’s more influential to the masses: an atmospheric physicist or a pop star?” However, she says, “Artists don’t feel like they can speak up about climate change like they can on other issues, for fear of being accused of hypocrisy.” After all, the superstars need to jet around the world to make it to their stadium spectacles. As critics and fans alike have noted, that’s a gigantic carbon footprint. Still some artists are taking up the challenge of greener logistics, including the band Coldplay. Now if only someone could come up with the song to inspire more of this and tie the movement together. Lara’s put together a playlist to consider: [Spotify: Climate Anthems]( Telltale Charts “If that Rolex you’ve got your eye on is getting more expensive, Bitcoin may be to blame. The last time the cryptocurrency rallied, in 2021, it [presaged a bubble]( in second-hand watch prices. There’s a fair chance that the recent resurgence that’s seen Bitcoin climb to a record will boost the values of timepieces, but for now, a repeat of the unprecedented escalation we saw back then looks some way off.” — Andrea Felsted in “[Blame Crypto Bros for the Rising Cost of Your Rolex](.”  “If rich democracies wanted to build a clean-energy industry free of Beijing’s influence, they should have had their checkbooks out when miners and processors were starved of cash during the 2010s. The global lithium industry is so interwoven with Chinese capital now that it’s going to be impossible to unpick.” — David Fickling in “[It’s Too Late to China-Proof the Lithium Supply Chain](.” Further Reading [Princess Kate’s]( an object lesson for brands. — Beth Kowitt [March Madness]( for boats. — Tim Culpan Activists love [breakups](. — Chris Hughes China wants to [school]( Britain. Don’t let it. — Matthew Brooker Central banks can be [too independent](. — Daniel Moss All that [glitters]( is gold, again! — Marcus Ashworth Has [private credit’s]( moment passed? — Shuli Ren Walk of the Town: Fox in the City In Wednesday’s Opinion Wrap, Jessica Karl cited a cute story about wildlife center staff in Virginia [dressing up as foxes]( to care for a vulpine orphan. I’d just scanned it on my phone the other night as I walked toward a quiet park — Lincolns Inn Fields, around which many London law firms have their offices. I saw some movement on the opposite sidewalk. It was a fox — rust orange, bushy tail and all — lifting a leg to spray its scent on a pillar along the way. I followed it as it strolled up Serle Street and slipped behind the elegant fence of a building, just across from the park. I thought that was it. I love catching sight of foxes in London — they are more elegant than the raccoons that occasionally plop down beside you from a tree branch in Central Park in New York, where I used to live. Foxes aren’t uncommon in the British capital: There are an estimated 10,000 in the city. The animals take up residence in London’s many backyards and bits of green. A favorite moment was watching one wait out a squirrel at Bunhill Fields cemetery, where the poet William Blake is buried. It was apt. “God provides for the lion,” Blake wrote, but “the fox provides for himself.” A fox in waiting at Bunhill Cemetery. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg But back to Wednesday in London. Walking east on busy Holborn, I saw another fox. It couldn’t be the same one I’d seen 10 minutes before. Or might it? It ducked into the terracotta Gothic portals of the 120-year-old Prudential Assurance building. I’d never seen two in a day. Recently, there have been several news stories here complaining about the “noisy” lovemaking of foxes in the city. I’ve yet to hear the sound of kit-making myself. But I’m sure I will one day soon. Drawdown Thanks for hearing me out. It’s great to have an audience. ”I’m not concerned. I love talking back to the voices in your head.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send autonomous echoes and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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