Even a winning jobs report is a loser for Biden

A strong jobs report is good news, right? Not if you're the president. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a possibly bogus trend of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter [here](. [A Reasonable Economy]( Here is something that sounds like bad news, but is actually good news — that might still be bad news for Joe Biden. I know: It’s a lot. Let’s unpack it. “The US jobless rate climbed to a two-year high in February,” [writes]( Bloomberg News’s Augusta Saraiva, “the report illustrates a labor market that is gradually downshifting, with more moderate job and pay gains.” Here is why it is good news: - Hiring remained healthy, pointing to a cooler yet resilient labor market. - The economy will keep expanding without much risk of a reacceleration in inflation. - Such a combination gives room for Federal Reserve policymakers to lower interest rates this year. - Digging beneath the surface, data showed some of the increase in the unemployment rate was due to people entering the labor force and not immediately finding work. By this and most other indicators, the economy is doing quite well, and not just for the [Van Cleef Clover]( set: Wages are up, unemployment remains below historical averages, and inflation is cooling in most sectors. Take a look at family net worth over the last four commanders in chief: But for Election 2024, what matters is perception, not facts, and Donald Trump is very good at [creating perceptions]( at odds with the facts. “American households are [wealthier]( and in [better financial shape]( than ever before by almost any measure,” writes Robert Burgess in [Bloomberg Opinion’s updated Biden Metrics Meter]( (free). “Yet the consensus is that the economy is a negative for Biden because consumer sentiment measures remain below their pre-pandemic levels.” Still, we are long way from November. “Are Americans really that sour on the economy?” asks Bob. “Perhaps not. Surveys show that when people are asked about their personal financial situation — and not just their views on the economy — an [overwhelming majority]( say it is either good or excellent.” Karl W. Smith is the skunk at the Rose Garden party. “White House officials may want to hold off on celebrating just yet.” Karl [writes]( (free). “It’s hard to deny that the labor market looks increasingly vulnerable to economic shocks such as the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates at their highest levels since 2000 for too long in its battle to tame inflation at a time when there are signs that many [payrolls are bloated](. In other words, any setback in the economy could see companies shedding workers at a rapid clip, further imperiling President Joe Biden’s already low ratings in an election year.” As usual, Jonathan Levin finds a different way to slice it. “The Great Resignation has given way to the Big Stay,” he [writes](. “A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed the so-called quits rate — the rate at which workers voluntarily leave their jobs, excluding retirements — fell to 2.1% in January, the lowest since August 2020 on a seasonally adjusted basis.” As my loyal readers will anticipate, I absolutely love this because it shows that the so-called [Great Resignation]( — in which hordes of millennials and Gen Zers were supposedly turning off, tuning out and [lying flat]( — was as bogus a trend story as [circle lenses](, [cat bros]( and the [Ralph Kramden look](. [1](#footnote-1) But the truth about jobs is another good/bad story. “An optimistic take (from the standpoint of employees) is that US workers are seeing the wage growth they want at their current jobs, so they have no reason to shop around,” writes Jonathan. “The bearish interpretation suggests that there’s something more insidious happening. Despite superficially strong payroll growth in the US, average weekly hours have been declining sharply, and some analysts have begun warning that the labor market may be much weaker than meets the eye … recession risks haven’t disappeared.” Please no. Another recession is likely to bring twin horrors: Trump in the White House and increased whingeing from Gen Z. Bonus [Pink Slip]( Reading: - No [Drama for Powell](, Not Enough for China — John Authers - Financial Crises Are a Feature, [Not a Bug](, of the US System — Paul J. Davies - Problem With [UK’s New Retirement Plan]( Is UK Stocks — John Authers [What’s the World Got in Store](? March 12: US CPI - Inflation Worrywarts [Are Crashing]( the Party — Jonathan Levin - One Good Footnote [Is Worth]( a Million CPI Guesses — Jonathan Levin March 14: US Retail Sales - Go Ahead Target. [Be Exclusive](.— Leticia Miranda - Giant Pants [Haven’t Swallowed]( Skinny Jeans (Yet) — Andrea Felsted March 15: China central bank rate decision - China [Needs a Reset](. Xi’s Got Bigger Problems. — Karishma Vaswani - China’s Growth Ambitions [Will Erase]( the World’s Climate Gains — David Fickling [Going Away to College]( So how do you get a good job? Hard work helps, skills are good, grace under pressure is valued. But most of all, you need to enter the realm of [credentialism](. And in [my world](, as probably in yours, there is no better credential than an Ivy League diploma. (OK, I’ll begrudgingly admit Stanford, MIT, Duke and a few other “near-ivies” to the club.) It’s NONSENSE of course; my mentors early in my career went to the University of California-Santa Cruz and University of Alabama-Birmingham. At least with the elite schools gradually [increasing race and wealth diversity](, they’re not so much driving inequality. What they are doing is turning back the clock on the SAT. And Stephen L. Carter, who teaches law at some rinky-dink college in New Haven, Connecticut, thinks it’s a great idea. “As swiftly as they followed the leader in dropping the standardized test as an admission requirement, the elite schools are reversing course,” Stephen [writes](. “Like many fads, this one had people joining in without taking the time to think things through. The determination to do something about racial injustice was in the air and activists had been campaigning against standardized tests for years. They made an easy target — and once one or two schools dropped them, following along was the path of least resistance.” But it was the garden path, as the provost of Brown admitted last week: “Our analysis made clear that SAT and ACT scores are among the key indicators that help predict a student’s ability to succeed and thrive in Brown’s demanding academic environment.” Stephen points out that studies had shown “the tests had been a help — not a hindrance — in diversifying the campus,” and calls the mindless push to drop them the “bandwagon effect— the tendency to do what other people are doing without pausing to figure out whether those others are right.” And that seems to be Biden’s problem as well: Lots of people thinking the economy is in bad shape leads lots of others to believe the same thing. If the smug Ivy Leagues can finally come to their senses and look at the facts, perhaps voters will do the same in November. Notes: Please send giant pants and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. [1] H/T to the wonderful [Jack Shafer]( for these and lots of other vivisections of the NYT styles section. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](