Could AI have predicted the death of Flaco the owl?

How New York's most famous bird became a symbol. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a lifespan calculation of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Asking AI [when you will die](. - The CBO tells [a little white lie](. - The politics of [a chicken thigh](. - [NATO]( finally gets [a new ally](. Owl King Over the weekend, New York City [mourned]( the loss of a local celebrity. He was an [inspiration]( to many, with some even [calling]( him “the hero of the city.” “I’m heartbroken that he’s no longer around,” [wrote]( one fan. “There are no words to express my grief,” another [wrote](. Others [said]( his parents would “be amazed and so proud.” If you had told 2022 me that these heartbreaking quotes were about a bird who allegedly flew into a window on the Upper West Side, I’d probably have laughed in your face. But Flaco wasn’t your average bird. When the beloved eagle owl escaped from the Central Park Zoo in January of last year, he became a symbol of all that is good and wholesome in this world. The city [tracked]( his every movement through social media, from his [rat feasts]( to his [squirrel face-offs](. The [outpouring of tears]( over his untimely demise makes me wonder: Could we have [prevented]( Flaco’s death? Or, at the very least, could we have predicted it? The idea’s not that far-fetched, considering recent [proclamations]( about artificial intelligence “death calculators” that can predict the day you’ll die. “Using economic and health data on thousands of people in Denmark, an AI-based system was able to predict with about 78% accuracy which people would die within the next four years,” F.D. Flam [writes](. As exciting as that sounds — and as much as I’d love to save future Flacos — AI’s magical fortune-telling abilities remain elusive. Although AI might be better than the Magic 8 Ball you took to sleepovers in middle school, the results of the [Danish study]( were wildly misrepresented in the media, with some claiming the death calculator could “predict the second you will die with incredible accuracy.” That’s far from the case. Instead, F.D. says AI can act as a health barometer of sorts, “by highlighting factors that affect lifespan and helping people live longer. Or they might improve [lifespan calculations](, which some people use to plan their retirements.” What would Flaco have wanted from his golden years? Maybe to retire to the Appalachians, a woodsy reprieve from his caged adolescence. Or perhaps he’d want to ride out his days in the concrete jungle, [perching]( outside our apartments in curiosity. We’ll never know for sure. But if Flaco taught us anything, it’s that there’s beauty in the uncertainty. Let’s not have AI ruin that for us. Bonus Tech Innovation Reading: [Open-source software]( may well be the greatest “public good” markets have ever produced. — Tyler Cowen Tooth Fairy Debt In today’s edition of Things That Humbled Me to My Core, I discovered that the[ going rate]( for a tooth right now is $5.84. That’s more than AT&T [is giving]( grown adults with cellphone bills! No wonder these kids can afford [Sephora]( at such a young age: Should we be concerned that our children are being [bankrolled]( by a fictional fairy with an unsustainable business model? Sure, the fairy is an [entrepreneur](, but consider the economics of building an empire out of discarded teeth. Where’s all that pillow money coming from? Do kids’ chompers sell for a premium on the black market? At this rate, we’ll reach $10 by 2034. That’s $200 per kid, assuming they lose all 20 of their teeth by their teenage years. Over 3 million babies are born in the US each year, which means this fairy has gotta be in the red, unless there’s some sort of Tooth Fairy Trust Fund we have yet to hear about. If this all sounds familiar, perhaps it’s because the bleak financial standing of the tooth fairy has something in common with that of America. “Complaining about the deficit is a bipartisan pastime,” as Karl Smith [writes](. So, too, is predicting it: By 2034, the [Congressional Budget Office]( says the US federal debt will reach a record [116% of gross domestic product](, up from 93% today. As you’ve probably heard, we’re barreling toward the umpteenth [government shutdown]( showdown of the decade. If Congress can’t make up its mind about spending by March 1, part of the government will stop working. But as worrisome as the nation’s fiscal outlook appears to be, Karl says the CBO’s dire predictions are more about encouraging deficit reduction than delivering accurate insight. “How else to explain why over the past 50 years it has routinely overestimated the amount of interest the US government would have to pay to service its debt?” he asks. Plus, the economy is doing just fine, despite our debt. John Authers [says]( the US dollar is cruising at near two-decade highs. But just because the dollar is strong doesn’t mean you need to put [$100]( underneath a 7-year-old’s pillow. Chicken Chaos In less than two years, Europe went from [this](: Source: LBC To [this](: Source: Politico What happened? At the start of the Ukraine war, we saw an outcry of support for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his nation. Not only did Sainsbury re-brand its chicken in solidarity, the UK supermarket [pulled]( Russian vodka from its shelves and [stopped selling]( Russian diesel at its gas stations to stand “united” with Ukraine. Yet much has changed since those early days. “As the third year of the grueling war in Ukraine begins, a highly sensitive fight over food in Europe shows the growing problem of weariness among Kyiv’s allies,” Lionel Laurent [writes](. In France, for instance, poultry farmers are begging their government to halt cheap Ukrainian chicken imports. Given Emmanuel Macron’s tight spot in the race against far-right rival Marine Le Pen, he’s pledged to protect the farmers, even going so far to [point his finger]( at a Ukrainian chicken mogul named Yuriy Kosiuk: “We are not interested in making money for this man,” he said earlier this month. Although poultry politics seems like small potatoes compared to the $60 billion US aid package that’s stuck in Congress, Lionel says the domestic outcry is emblematic of growing war fatigue among Europeans. “This kind of fight is music to the ears of Vladimir Putin, who has weaponized food security before,” he writes. Read [the whole thing](. Bonus Food Drama Reading: The lengthy [FTC battle]( over Prego and Rao’s misses the point: jarred pasta sauce is just bad. — Bobby Ghosh Telltale Charts Twenty-one months after Sweden submitted its application to become a member of NATO, it’s finally able to join the club, thanks to a vote from Hungary’s parliament. In the coming days, the Nordic country is expected to become the alliance’s 32nd member — “a momentous shift for a nation that pursued various versions of neutrality to stay out of wars for 200 years,” [according to]( Bloomberg’s Niclas Rolander. But just as one country fortifies the military alliance, another one threatens to dismantle it: “Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that he’d ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO countries that fall short of their defense-spending commitments demands to be called out,” Bloomberg’s editorial board [writes](. “As voters ponder their choices in this election, it’s crucial that they reflect on just [how wrong]( Trump is.” Consider this my formal petition to get [Depths of Wikipedia]( to feature “[salami slicing](” — a ruthless military practice where one side attempts to take over another’s territory, bit by bit. Although the term is thought to have originated from a Stalinist dictator who had an affinity for savoring thinly-sliced deli meats, China has become a master of the tactic with Taiwan. In recent weeks, Chinese coast-guard vessels have escalated “[gray-zone activities](” in the [Taiwan Strait]( through a “slow, steady strangulation.” Karishma Vaswani [says]( Taipei cannot allow Beijing’s piecemeal encroachment to continue. “Ignoring the situation just allows it to fester and the problems to grow,” she argues. Further Reading Honey, I [insider-traded]( your merger! — Matt Levine Black Hollywood is inadvertently [keeping the industry]( White. — Corey Emanuel Netanyahu’s [“day after” memo]( isn’t a plan. But it’s a start. — Marc Champion Warren Buffett has [an important lesson]( for a market in flux. — Jonathan Levin Really, Texas? [Don’t punish]( Black students for their hair. — Stephen L. Carter Is shoplifting on the rise? [No one knows](, and that’s the problem. — Matthew Yglesias Nikki Haley won’t win the nomination, but [she still has work]( to do. — Mary Ellen Klas It’s tempting to say that [recycling is a scam](, but it’s not. — David Fickling The [economic power]( of Beyonce’s pivot to country is undeniable. — Bobby Ghosh ICYMI Elon’s [tunnel project]( racks up safety violations. Boeing got hit by a damning [FAA report](. Wendy’s is introducing [surge pricing](. A professor donated [$1 billion]( to a Bronx Medical School. Melania’s ‘[I Don’t Care](’ jacket was a dig at Ivanka. A missing couple’s yacht reportedly got [hijacked](. Kickers The internet’s ideal [nuclear family](. Robert Pattinson’s [role of a lifetime](. [Shirley temples]( are a gift to society. Monica Lewinsky is [a Reformation girlie](. Krispy Kreme has a good [Leap Day deal](. [Oeufs mayo]( are taking over New York City. Notes: Please send a $19 serving of two boiled eggs and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](