The rent is too high for too many young New Yorkers

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a sweet assortment of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Young New Yorkers are fleeing high rents. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a sweet assortment of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Young New Yorkers are [fleeing high rents](. - Recessions [may be good for your health](. - Attacks on abortion pills by mail [are misguided](. - Soho House may benefit [from being less public](. Young, Ambitious and Broke in NYC [Jimmy McMillan’s mantra]( about New York City has never been more true, and high rents could cause the city to lose young people to metros that experienced a construction boom during the pandemic. [It didn’t have to be this way](, Conor Sen argues: The state of the rental market today is a report card on how responsive local economies were to changes during the pandemic. Surging rents and historically low borrowing costs in the first half of 2021 spurred apartment construction in much of the country, particularly rapidly growing metros including Austin, Phoenix and Nashville. Not so in New York. As a result, while there’s a glut of apartments elsewhere, rental space is hard to find in New York City. New York City’s predicament stems partly from the fact that rental demand slumped in the early part of the pandemic, when people were leaving the city in droves. “So there was a lack of construction when rents were surging and interest rates were still low in late 2021 and into 2022, and there’s a lack of construction today when rents are high and vacancy rates are at multi-generational lows,” Conor notes. Can the city build its way out of this hole? That would require relaxing zoning standards and streamlining permitting — no small task. And even then, a construction surge is unlikely to start right away because financing and other costs have soared due to rising rates and more expensive labor and materials. This especially bad news for younger New Yorkers. “The rental market in a city such as New York works by taking in young people looking to start their careers and spitting out older people, who end up buying homes, whether in New York City or elsewhere,” Conor points out. “When the buying-homes part of the equation is difficult it jams up the rental market and prevents young people from moving in or forces out those who can’t afford to stay.” The upshot is that New York City will lose a fair number of residents, especially younger ones, to cities that did build when the going was good. Bonus Real Estate Reading: There’s a crisis in commercial properties, but it varies from street to street. And that, says Paul J. Davies, means [not all lenders will feel the same level of pain](.    The Great Recession Prolonged People’s Lives Yes, you read that right: For all the well-documented hardships that attended the Great Recession, new research shows that it [extended the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans](. Parsing a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, Tyler Cowen notes that, overall, age-adjusted mortality in the US fell by 2.3% between 2007-09; one in twenty-five 55-year-olds got an extra year of life. This may sound counterintuitive, but it is consistent with other research showing mortality rates actually fall in hard economic times. Why do recessions make people healthier? As Tyler notes, the answer “remains largely a mystery.” But there are some compelling theories. The main one is that there is less air pollution, the result of reduced industrial activity, and the effects of cleaner air can linger for years after the economy has rebounded. Tyler also tosses out a few hypotheses of his own: “Some people who lose their jobs might be able to spend more time exercising, for example, or engaging in self-care more generally,” he writes. “Others might have less money to spend on alcohol and other drugs. The overall quality of health care might improve as the industry is able to attract a better-educated workforce.” The research shows that all major causes of mortality, except for cancer, fell during the Great Recession. About half the mortality gains were due to decreases in cardiovascular-related deaths. What’s more, since the Great Recession was a relatively recent event, there may be mortality benefits that are not yet visible in the data. The challenge for America, Tyler concludes, is to “find ways to reap those mortality gains without having to go through a recession.” Abortion Pills by Mail Are Safe By June, the US Supreme Court will decide whether to reinstate restrictions on abortion pills. The decision could end the use of telehealth for medication abortion. But, as Lisa Jarvis [points out](, there’s “robust body of evidence demonstrating the safety of medication abortion, a two-step dose of mifepristone and misoprostol that now comprises more than half of abortions in the US.” This is reinforced by a new study in Nature Medicine, which shows that receiving abortion pills via telehealth “is just as safe and effective as being handed those pills in a doctor’s office,” Lisa notes. Researchers at the University of California, San Francisco found that nearly 98% of people who used pills mailed to their home — after a video appointment or texting with a health-care provider — were able to complete their abortion with no issues and no follow-up required. Just 1.3% of women visited the emergency room after their abortion. “Abortion opponents have typically attacked the safety of the pills — and in particular, the rate of ER visits,” writes Lisa. “But the disingenuousness of that argument is becoming increasingly obvious.” Now if only the justices would follow the science. Telltale Charts Examining the misfortunes of Soho House & Co, Chris Bryant notes that its shares have fallen about 60% since their 2021 listing in New York, valuing the group at just $1.1 billion. But Chris is skeptical of the claims of short seller GlassHouse that the company is “facing an existential crisis” and “hurtling toward financial ruin.” After all, membership has soared since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Still, there’s no denying that the company doesn’t make a profit — not least because of aggressive expansion. The pandemic didn’t help, either. Soho House’s co-founders are taking advantage of the sinking price to buy back shares. Going private, Chris says, would give them the chance to deal with the company’s problems “away from public glare.” Further Reading The Fed should [use the discount window to prevent bank runs](. — Bloomberg’s Editorial Board January retail sales should [cool excessive investor enthusiasm for discretionary stocks.]( — Jonathan Levin There’s a legal basis for [giving Russia’s $300 billion in frozen assets to Ukraine](. — Andreas Kluth Refugees who helped US troops in Afghanistan [have earned permanent legal status](. — Patricia Lopez Hawaii’s justices [rightly rebuke the US Supreme Court’s gun decisions]( (free read). — Franis Wilkinson State [investment in early childhood pays off](, even if parents seem undeserving. — Kathryn Anne Edwards Keir Starmer’s Labour is failing to demonstrate that it represents [a competent alternative to the Tories](. — Adrian Wooldridge Starving polar bears are [a wake-up call for humans](. — Lara Williams Soccer traditionalists are going to give me [so much grief over my latest column](. — Yours Truly ICYMI An endorsement nobody wants: [Putin says he prefers Biden]( to Trump. The US power grid is [struggling to maintain an even flow of electricity](. European 4Q earnings [haven’t missed by this much in years](. Kickers Australia’s prime minister had [a good Valentine’s Day](. You’d think John Cleese, of all people, [wouldn’t have to explain a joke](. Are a [great musician’s failures]( worth saving? Notes: Please send leftover Valentine’s Day chocolates and feedback to Bobby Ghosh at [aghosh73@bloomberg.net](mailto:jkarl9@bloomberg.net). [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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