Biden’s next move in the Middle East will be a big one

How strongly should the US respond? [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a marketplace for unauthorized opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The US figures out how [to fight](. - Trump’s fortunes are [looking tight](. - AI is Taylor Swift’s [new blight](. - Arctic temperatures [take flight](. [Waiting Game]( We now know [the names]( of the three US soldiers who were killed in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants in Jordan over the weekend: Sergeant William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Ga.; Specialist Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Ga.; and Specialist Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Ga. “Added to the two Navy SEALS who died in an accident in the Arabian Sea earlier this month, this is a significant casualty count,” James Stavridis [writes]( (free read). “How strongly should the US respond?” There are plenty of opinions about what President Joe Biden should do next. Andreas Kluth is [particularly unimpressed]( with those of Republicans, who say President Joe Biden will look like a coward unless he [hits]( Iran “hard” by [carrying out]( “devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East.” Such “schoolyard baiting rarely yields good strategy,” warns Andreas, who counsels “a proportionate and limited retaliation.” James, meanwhile, offers a five-step plan for a response: - Step 1: Increase the level of intelligence devoted to the Middle East. “Given the deaths of American military personnel, job No. 1 for the next several weeks will be collecting information on Iran and its proxies,” James writes. - Step 2: Prepare a significant cyberattack on Iran. The US could go after Iranian command and control, sever Tehran’s connectivity to its proxy forces, penetrate its oil and gas infrastructure, and reduce its armament production. - Step 3: Ramp up CIA efforts to create, fund and operationalize US proxies against Iran. And the Pentagon should develop a full campaign plan with 5-7 days of continuous strikes against proxy targets in Syria and Yemen. - Step 4: Pass a direct message to Iran through Gulf partners that says, “We are hitting back, and the next round of strikes will be an order of magnitude greater.” - Step 5: Get Israel to work with the US and its Arab partners to craft a cease-fire to allow further hostage releases in Gaza. That last step may be even more crucial than deterrence. “The Siren-like call of finding a once-and-for-all military solution to Israel’s security problems is leading inexorably to escalation elsewhere,” Marc Champion [writes](. “Only a cease-fire in Gaza will break that cycle.” Every day that passes, “the threat from Hezbollah and its arsenal of 150,000 missiles continues rising,” Marc says. Although Iran says it had nothing to do with the drone attack, it arms the militias that killed those three US soldiers. “Rogue states and militias have more means than ever before to conduct asymmetric warfare against even the most powerful militaries in the world,” Marc admits. And Iran may be learning that the hard way, Mihir Sharma [writes](: “As the Romans discovered centuries ago, proxies might even consume the empire that long supported them.” It’s Burned in My Brain The mind works in mysterious ways: You might not remember what you ate for breakfast this morning, but you know [every single Lil Wayne line](in “[Down](,” a song that came out 15 years ago. You might not recall where you put your car keys, but you can [recite the K9 Advantix]( commercial by heart. You might forget to wish your mother-in-law a happy birthday, but you can tell her why [the Mercator projection]( favors countries farthest from the equator. In other words: We can’t always control what things get permanently burned into our brains. Take Trump, for instance. I would LOVE to forget that he [diverted]( $7 from his charitable foundation to pay for his son’s Boy Scout registration fee in 1989, but I can’t. That fact follows me wherever I go. This croissant and latte is $7? You bet I’m thinking about that registration fee when I hand the barista my credit card. So yeah, that $7 immediately popped into my head when I heard about E. Jean Carroll’s victory on Friday. “The costs are adding up, even for a comfortably wealthy man like Trump,” Tim O’Brien [writes]( (free read). “Apart from the $88.3 million he will owe Carroll if he doesn’t successfully appeal those rulings, Trump is also facing possible penalties of as much as $370 million in a civil fraud case brought against him by the New York State Attorney General.” Combined, that’s about $458 million — equivalent to more than 65 million Boy Scout registrations, by my calculations. Where’s all that money gonna come from? Although Bloomberg News [estimates]( his net worth at about $3.1 billion, Trump’s [liquid coffers]( are much smaller, despite having grown in the years following his presidency. Here’s a handy [soccer ball of data]( (no, not [that soccer ball]() to help illustrate what’s in Trump’s wallet: “Should Trump wind up really strapped after running out of other options, he could consider filing for bankruptcy to protect what he has,” Tim writes. That might be his best option for self-preservation, considering he was forced to [shut down]( his charity in 2018. Read [the whole thing](. Bonus Trump Reading: - Trump is encouraging [another insurrection]( by asking states to send their guards to the Texas border. — Patricia Lopez - The only thing worse than [presidential debates]( may be a campaign without them. — Matthew Yglesias Look at This Godforsaken [Mess]( I had planned to dedicate this portion of the newsletter to the Good Things Happening in the World That Nobody Talks About. We’ve got an 11-year-old boy who can now [hear for the first time]( in what Lisa Jarvis says is a promising sign for gene therapies. Adam Minter notes how women’s professional hockey is [breaking the ice ceiling](. Even [the trees are happier](, according to David Fickling. But as much as I’d love to focus on those feel-good stories, I must turn to the Bad Things Happening in the World That Everybody Talks About. Yes, I’m referring to Taylor Swift — [who else](?! — and the deepfake porn images of her that surfaced on the internet late last week. Over the weekend, X [shut down searches]( for the pop star’s name because the site was inundated with so many faked porn images of her — one of them viewed more than 45 million times before being removed — that it couldn’t weed them all out. “Swift’s attack shows where generative AI’s toxic effects are most insidious, by creating whole new groups of both victims and abusers in a marketplace for unauthorized, sexualized images,” Parmy Olson [writes]( (free read). Swift is [hardly alone]( in her experience, Parmy notes: Around [96% of deepfakes]( on the web are pornographic. “Well before Swift became a victim, many young women who didn’t have the same kind of influence were experiencing the psychological distress of being targeted,” Parmy explains. Remember those New Jersey high schoolers who were sharing [doctored nudes]( of their female classmates? Or how about [this small town]( in Spain, where a group of boys used AI to “undress” social media images of more than 20 girls aged between 11 and 17? Around the world, image generators are [undermining]( the dignity of women. If anyone is going to save humanity from the dark side of AI — and [make it]( to the Super Bowl too — it’s [Taylor Swift](. Bonus AI Reading: Apple is actually our [best hope]( for making AI models more private. — Parmy Olson Telltale Charts Much like a prewar [New York City apartment]( in the dead of winter, the Arctic is warming nearly [four times faster]( than the rest of the world. “With huge amounts of carbon stored in the Arctic — the permafrost alone holds an estimated [1,700 billion metric tons of carbon]( — it’s imperative that we understand what’s happening while acting to protect it,” Lara Williams [writes](. Unfortunately for the planet, many of the researchers who are supposed to be solving this ice-melting mystery live in a country that’s embroiled in a brutal war. For nearly two years, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has prevented Russia from collaborating on climate science with the West. “That means many studies are on hiatus and that vital data from a huge area are inaccessible or potentially not being collected,” she warns. One thing that keeps Western lawmakers up at night is the l-word: lithium. Not only does China process most of the world’s cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements, it has an iron grip on green-transition metal mines across the world, from [Australia]( to [Chile](. Naturally, that level of lithium dominance worries the US and its allies. But in its mad dash to secure more resources, Bloomberg’s editorial board argues, “the West is throwing globalization into reverse.” Consider the hundreds of billions of dollars the US is spending on green subsidies with the [stipulation]( that the components and raw materials mustn’t come from China. “Such policies might make sense if green technology were expected to remain static,” the editors write, but “experience strongly suggests that material requirements will change as necessity drives innovation.” Further Reading [Universal basic income]( plans only work in studies — so far. — Karl Smith Sports bets and financial disasters share [some traits](. — Aaron Brown The woman [best placed]( to replace Rishi Sunak is hiding in plain sight. — Martin Ivens Netflix is [hammering]( the last nail into linear TV’s coffin. — Paul Hardart Police need warrants for [Ring footage](, but what about the other cameras? — Stephen L. Carter A serial entrepreneur takes [a second shot]( at disrupting food delivery. — Bobby Ghosh In 25 years, Europeans may [have to pay]( to use the highway. — Javier Blas ICYMI The first human received [an implant]( from Neuralink yesterday. A [new study suggests]( Alzheimer’s can pass between humans. Jair Bolsonaro’s son [was targeted]( by police in a spying agency probe. Taylor Swift is Biden’s biggest 2024 [endorsement target](. A hidden [prison labor web]( was linked to foods from Target and Walmart. Kickers Scotland has a [monkey]( on the loose. (h/t Andrea Felsted) Whale vomit is key to [smelling good](. We hate [scary videos](, but we can’t look away. The world’s [largest Ferris wheel]( kinda looks like a tambourine. Notes: Please send ambergris and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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