The first big nail-biter vote of 2024

All eyes on Taiwan. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an escalated encapsulation of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - The US and UK strike, but [advantage](Iran. - No [sphere]( for you! - Taking the K out of [K-Pop](. - Can AI fix Sam [Altman’s]( schedule? - The [Red Sea]( doesn’t mean red ink, yet. - Will the [youth vote]( change Taiwan? - Inside the [Machiavellian]( kitchen cabinet. But Will China Choose to Vote With Its Fleet? This is the year of elections whose momentousness precedes them — from India and Pakistan to the US and the UK and lots of others in between. Right now, anxieties are swirling around Taiwan’s presidential vote on Saturday, Jan. 13. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party has long been the bane of Beijing, which claims the so-called Republic of China, with its capital in Taipei, as rebel territory that must be reunited with the mainland. If the DPP’s candidate, William Lai Ching-te, prevails this weekend, that animosity will only get worse. That’s because the party’s barely disguised aspirations to establish Taiwan as a separate nation are anathema to the People’s Republic. The DPP has pursued an independence “that dare not speak its name” strategy, but China isn’t amused — and has expressed its displeasure with menacing air force fly-bys and close-quarter naval exercises. Lai holds a slim polling lead over two other candidates. His rivals, who have a more conciliatory approach toward Beijing, had descended into political comedy when they failed to forge a joint ticket just days after announcing they were teaming up. This time around, however, the electorate — especially its younger cohort — isn’t especially excited by Lai, despite handing his party — and outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen — victories in 2016 and 2020. As Karishma Vaswani [writes](: “Taiwan’s youth are preoccupied with survival, but it’s not just the threat of a conflict with the military giant on their doorstep that concerns them: They also want a better economic future.” The trouble is underscored by the fact that Taiwan cut its growth forecast. At just 1.42%, it’s  the slowest since the Global Financial Crisis. That rate might just get a boost from better relations with Xi Jinping’s government across the strait. If Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang or Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party pulls off an upset, there may be a diminution of bellicosity. But the entire separateness of Taiwan will have to be resolved somehow — and that’s likely to keep stress levels high. What will not change is the great power rivalry with the US in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims as its own too. (Taiwan, as the last stronghold of the Nationalist Party, which once ruled the mainland and now exists as the Kuomintang, claims the same islands too.) Naval encounters of an uncomfortable kind over tiny islets are bound to continue between China and the Philippines (which hopes US assets will back it up). Taiwan, Minxin Pei [says](, “will only be more secure if US-China ties are less crisis-prone.” A war over Taiwan and/or a confrontation between the US and China in the South China will choke off one of the world’s most important trade routes, making the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping look like a schoolyard squabble (though, of course, US and UK strikes plus further escalation may complicate the situation, as James Stavridis [notes](). For now, Andrea Felsted and Leticia Miranda [quote](the chief executive officer of the UK retailer Next as saying the 2 to 2.5 weeks added to deliveries because of the Red Sea disruption is “an inconvenience rather than a crisis.” A South China Sea war, however, would be of a different magnitude entirely, directly involving the major economies of China, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Japan. John Authers [noted](that “When Bank of America published its list of the 10 biggest surprises to brace for this year, it gave pride of place to the possibility that geopolitical risk will affect” the Magnificent Seven tech stocks (Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Google-owner Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc.) In a [separate column](, John  goes through a list of historical ruptures — from the Vietnam War to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait to 9/11 — to gauge market reaction. His conclusion: “Geopolitics’ effect on markets is almost impossible to predict, but so important that it’s necessary to try.” So keep your eye on Taiwan this weekend — and on those other elections down the road. Telltale Charts “The success of [Javier] Milei’s administration will mostly depend on proving that it can tame inflation and reorganize an economy that has long been the victim of policy malpractice. The path to do that is certainly treacherous — but Argentina’s long history of economic failure doesn’t preclude the achievement of stability. The biggest immediate challenge is whether Milei has the political skills to implement his program.” — Juan Pablo Spinetto in “[Milei Has a Narrow Path to Stabilize Argentina’s Economy](.” “Winter is over. If you’re reading these lines ... in Europe, you probably think I’m crazy. Yes, I’m aware it’s frigid in most of the region, with temperatures of -10C in Berlin and -25C in Oslo having finally arrived. But from the perspective of the European natural gas market, you may as well be at the beach.  Let me explain: With nearly half of the heating season in the rearview mirror — the midpoint comes on Jan. 15 — the region’s mild weather until now has left supplies plentiful, making the current cold snap just a blip.” — Javier Blas in “[It’s Finally Cold — But for European Gas Traders, Winter Is Already Over.](” Further Reading A new fear factor: [Nanoplastics](. — F.D. Flam A wider arena than the [Red Sea](. — James Stavridis [Liminality](and our mercurial times. — Andreas Kluth The [little circuit breaker]( that could. — Paul J. Davies When wars become [existential](. — Marc Champion China’s rich want [wealth management](— overseas. — Shuli Ren Byju’s disastrous [growth spurt](. — Andy Mukherjee Walk of the Town: Hand to Mouth Via the Subway I was in New York this week and took the rainy walk from Pennsylvania Station and 7th Avenue to Greeley Square and Broadway to descend treacherous steps into the subway station. There I found what I was looking for: Noksu, a three-month-old restaurant run by 28-year-old chef Dae Kim that is as sleek and sophisticated as the staircase landing was slippery and wet. A couple of speakeasies inhabit subway stations in the city, but this is the only fine dining establishment I know of. The food was exquisite, made more exotic by the subterranean setting (it’s not that deep, just one flight below street level). The chef suggested that several dishes were best eaten by hand, [an eating style I’ve written about.]( Pick up this crab tart and pop into your mouth. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg The subway can take you to other places where you can eat by hand. The night after Noksu, I took the 7 Train to Jackson Heights, Queens to meet my friend Anya Von Bremzen, the author of the National Dish, who lives there. The area is perhaps New York City’s most cosmopolitan (one pedestrian strip is called Diversity Plaza). After taking me to a Nepalese restaurant for Himalayan momo dumplings and a quick tour of a Sherpa civic association and a Sindhi temple, we arrived at Zaab Zaab, an acclaimed restaurant that specializes in the cooking of the Isan region of Thailand. It’s another place you are encouraged to eat with your hands. The very spicy duck larb was especially wonderful, scooped up with a small ball of glutinous rice. Meanwhile, a video played of a young woman consuming enormous quantities of food. I felt like an amateur. A snippet of the Zaab Zaab aspirational video Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan To help make up for all that eating in Queens, I decided to walk 2.5 miles to First Avenue and 12th Street for my meal the next evening. The destination: Naks, a new Filipino restaurant where much of the tasting menu is eaten by hand. My friend and colleague Bobby Ghosh [wrote](about it in early December and, as a patriotic Filipino gourmand, I had to see what’s cooking. It was, as they say, finger-licking good. Eating noodles with pork belly right off the banana leaf covered table at Naks. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg The only drawback about eating with your hands is … well, it’s a bit sticky when the time comes to take photos with your phone. Fortunately, Naks provided wet napkins, washbasins and finger bowls filled with warm water, lemon and flower petals. Drawdown Thanks you for hanging in there! You know who you are. Here’s a parting gift. ”Snap out of it. Imposter syndrome is all in your head, Lana … I mean, Lauren.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan Notes: Please send self-actualizing hacks and mindful feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022