Colorado isn’t following Trump’s holiday script

What might the Supreme Court do with the historic ruling? [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the True Spirit of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Will [SCOTUS]( uphold Colorado’s case? - [Ferrari and Porsche]( are in a race. - [Oil producers]( may set the energy pace. - A [new military operation]( protects sea space. [Lie Hard]( Isn’t a Christmas Movie Nearly every holiday movie follows the same enemies-to-lovers plot. It begins with two good-looking people. One of them is very, very sad — either because they lost their job or their spouse at a young age — and lives in a quaint town with a rescue dog named Jingles. The other one — usually a successful workaholic in New York City or Chicago — begrudgingly returns home for the holidays to said quaint town to help save the family business. They initially run into each other at a pub, a gingerbread bakery or a hardware store. And at first, they do NOT see eye to eye. They’re constantly bickering. That is until one day, they look into each other’s eyes over mugs of hot chocolate and see the True Spirit of Christmas. They kiss. They save the business together. And it all culminates in a totally unexpected yet extravagant celebration on Christmas Eve. This all may seem dull to you, dear reader, but there’s something delightful about a completely predictable Hallmark movie. Maybe it’s an antidote to reality. In an ideal world, our lives would be as straightforward as one of those movies! But nothing is ever as simple as we’d like it to be. Consider what happened last night: In a remarkable plot twist, the Colorado Supreme Court determined that former President Donald Trump should be excluded from the state’s primary ballot because he engaged in an insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021. “Now the pressure is on the US Supreme Court to decide whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, on which the Colorado court relied, truly does block Trump from the ballot,” Noah Feldman [writes]( (free read). Now, no matter where you land on the scale of [Billie Eilish Can’t Run for President and Neither Can Trump]( to [Colorado is Turning Into the New Venezuela](, you have to agree that this has the potential to be a historic case. “If the justices rule directly on whether Trump is disqualified under the Constitution, their ruling would apply in every state, not only Colorado,” Noah explains. So what will the Court do? Unlike a sappy Christmastime film, there’s no clear-cut script to follow. Noah says the justices have five options, none of which is entirely perfect: - They could say Colorado doesn’t have the authority: The state court used an opinion by Justice Neil Gorsuch (who at the time was still an appellate judge) about a naturalized citizen who was kept off the presidential ballot. The justices could say that the state isn’t allowed to rule on those matters, but Noah warns that it would highlight some “apparent inconsistency.” - They could say Griffin’s Case allows them to reverse the Colorado decision: The 1869 Griffin’s Case held that the bar on insurrectionists holding office doesn’t go into effect unless Congress passes a law providing for its execution, which it has not done. But Griffin’s Case isn’t technically binding precedent, so using it as an argument “would put the conservatives in an awkward position, given their willingness to overturn even strong precedents like Roe v. Wade,” Noah writes. - They could put Trump back on the ballot: Colorado’s state court argues that “an officer of the United States” includes the presidency. But the justices could rule that “an officer” only refers to other federal or state offices, so Trump wouldn’t be affected by the ban. Noah says “there’s little historical evidence to support that view,” though. - They could say the conclusion of the Colorado lower court was incorrect: Colorado’s decision to exclude Trump involved a ruling it upheld from a lower Colorado court that was based on a few days of testimony and Congress’ Jan. 6 proceedings. If the Supreme Court finds it’s flat-out wrong, Noah says, a majority of the justices would need to be legally convinced that Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6 doesn’t fit the constitutional meaning of insurrection — a stance that would open up a can of worms. - They could say the evidence presented in the Colorado lower court was insufficient: A milder approach would be for them to find that the lower court didn’t have enough proof. But Noah notes this “could allow the issue to be re-litigated in Colorado and elsewhere with more evidence. The Supreme Court would probably view that as an invitation to legal chaos less than a year before the election.” The plot of Trump’s candidacy seems more muddled than ever, and the Colorado ruling is just one piece of a larger puzzle with many questionable actors, including former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. “The descent of the Republican Party into MAGA degeneracy is complex. But it tracks the party’s embrace, first tentative and tactical, later authoritarian and pathological, of lies about voter fraud,” Francis Wilkinson [argues](. We’re about as far away from the land of comfortable, cookie-cutter holiday movie plots as you can get, and that’s no lie. [Ferrari]( vs. Porsche Would you rather own Jerry Seinfeld’s “phenomenal” [Porsche collection]( or Gordon Ramsay’s “effing brilliant” [Ferrari collection](? If you went with Seinfeld’s Porsches, you miiiight have a few regrets after reading [this]( Chris Bryant column. The German carmaker’s stock has declined around one-third since peaking in May, and now lies below its €82.50 ($90.75) IPO price. “An already sizable valuation gap to Ferrari has become a chasm,” Chris writes. What sets Ferrari apart from Porsche is the clientele. The Italian luxury carmaker caters to the upper echelons of the 1%, which is why investors see it as a safer choice than Porsche, which goes after a broader group of affluent individuals. To recover, Chris says Porsche will prioritize exclusivity and high sticker prices. So “if you’re hoping to find the keys to a Panamera sedan or 911 sportscar underneath the Christmas tree may you be out of luck,” he writes. Porsche’s rocky performance has reopened a debate around its so-called brand exclusivity. “Porsche sells more than 300,000 vehicles annually, compared with just 13,000 at Ferrari,” Chris explains. And the price points reflect that difference: The average Ferrari owner spends around €368,000 whereas a Porsche customer pays less than a third of that. “There’s a [similar valuation gap in the fashion world](,” Chris notes. Investors pay a multiple of 50 times earnings for shares of Hermès and Brunello Cucinelli, but their rivals trade at around half that level. Just as Hermès customers spend years hoping to be invited to purchase a Birkin bag, ferraristi fight for the chance to purchase its sports cars. I guess cooking isn’t the only thing Gordon Ramsay has mastered. He’s got car collecting down, too. Telltale Charts As you know by now, COP28 [failed to deliver the bags of money]( we need to save the planet. But what does failure look like, exactly? Ten countries in Asia and Africa will account for more than half the world’s additional population between now and 2050. Given all that growth, the potential damage from added pollution is staggering. “If rich nations don’t provide the funding for clean energy to fuel their growth, oil producers and their allies stand with checkbooks at the ready for the dirty alternative,” David Fickling [warns](. At first, “Operation Prosperity Guardian” sounds like a spiritual cleanse that a healer might prescribe after a session in their backyard wellness garden. But it’s actually the name of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s [new military effort]( in the Middle East. In recent weeks, Iranian-sponsored terrorists from the Houthi rebellion in Yemen have executed highly [sophisticated attacks]( in the waters of the Red Sea, North Arabian Sea and western Indian Ocean. “The new mission is aptly named, as it is designed to protect the 15% of global shipping that passes through the region,” James Stavridis [writes](. Further Reading and Watching Free read: The US slapped Southwest with a $140 million fine, but its [new pilot contract]( is a promising sign. — Beth Kowitt Ukraine’s military has struggled and Western resolve is fraying. But [the answer]( isn’t to do less. — Bloomberg’s editorial board What if you fell asleep a year ago and woke up today? [What did you miss]( in the US economy? — Kyla Scanlon The industrial outlook for 2024 is a tale of [two narratives](: It’s the best of times but also a rough time. — Brooke Sutherland BlackRock has investments [on both sides]( of the culture wars. — John Authers If you own the casino and [you’re still not winning](, maybe it’s time to reconsider your strategy. — Matthew Brooker China’s Xi Jinping [got lucky]( this year. He shouldn’t get used to it. — Minxin Pei ICYMI The US reached [a prisoner swap deal]( with Venezuela. Iran hanged [a child bride]( for murdering her husband. Chick-fil-A on a Sunday? New York [is praying this works](. Kickers How the Elf on the Shelf [co-opted Christmas](. Here’s seven [media cliff-hangers]( to close out 2023. Costco is [selling]( one of the world’s rarest wines. Scientists claim they can use AI to predict [when you’ll die](. Notes: Please send Screaming Eagle Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. 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