The Ghost of Vibecessions Past

Plus: What witches can teach us about capitalism. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an old grave of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - A [soft landing](? Don’t speak too soon. - A [witch in Salem](? She was never a loon. - A [bet on Bitcoin or gold](? You’re inviting ruin. - A [female CEO](? Only if she’s on the moon. Vibe Check On the list of Cool Stuff You Can Do While You’re Alive, creating a word is pretty high up there. Like, sure, you could win an Ig Nobel for [counting nose hairs on cadavers]( or get an Olympic gold medal for [trampolining](, but not everyone is patient or flexible enough to do those things. Coining a new term, on the other hand, feels slightly more doable yet equally impressive. In fact, one of our contributors, Kyla Scanlon, [managed to do it]( this year. Last week, her word “vibecession” was officially uploaded on [dictionary.com](: Now, some people thought the vibecession was [dead and gone](, and although I’d hate to dig up an [old grave](, the term that Kyla coined — or the lingering spirit of it, at least — seems to have stuck around. While “the Federal Reserve’s effort to guide the US economy to a soft landing — reducing inflation without causing a recession — seems to be working,” Bloomberg’s editorial board says the Biden administration [should be cautious]( about celebrating too soon. Already, too many government officials sound as though they’re living in la-la land when they tell voters the economy is in excellent shape, despite reality saying otherwise. Gaslighting Americans about their economic standing “only adds insult to injury,” the board members argue. Consider your day-to-day purchases: Since 2020, they have risen by roughly 20%. As reporting by Bloomberg [shows](, inflation still feels like a gut-punch, literally: When millions of Americans head to the store to buy their groceries this holiday season, they’ll be paying 25% more than they were at the start of the pandemic. Sure, wages have risen as well. But for many families, the cost of living has stretched them too thin: “The share of wages spent on interest payments, including credit card bills and auto loans, is at its highest since just before the crash of 2008 — and close to a record,” they write. In that light, all the [sad girl music]( consumers have been playing isn’t just “for the vibe;” it’s a reflection of our economic reality. As the editors write, “many households don’t just feel worse off; they are worse off.” Perhaps the best example of that is housing, which is [less affordable]( than it has been for years. Luckily, we may be getting relief soon: “January should provide a window of opportunity for would-be homebuyers who have been shut out so far,” Conor Sen [writes]( (free read). Just as the first month is the unofficial [best time]( to eat at restaurants in New York City, the post-holiday doldrums offer perfect conditions for house hunters. “Rising inventory levels will give buyers somewhat more options than they had earlier this year, while the recent decline in mortgage rates also makes affordability somewhat better,” Conor writes. Although you’ve read dozens of headlines about how the housing market is more frozen than [Elsa’s ice castle](, “the 5 Ds” that prompt people to move — diapers, diplomas, diamonds, divorce and death — happen regardless of how chilly mortgage rates are. So even if the Ghost of Vibecessions Past haunts you this holiday season, have some hope for 2024. It just might be the year that your word ends up on dictionary.com. Bonus Inflation Reading: The Fed’s soft landing looks to be more of [a coincidence]( than the result of expert macroeconomic policy. — Karl Smith Manipulation Nation Source: TikTok What is it about [cults](? For centuries, humans have been equally enthralled and disgusted by tales of radicalized, brainwashed disciples committing dark rituals. I am partial to stories about the [Twelve Tribes cult](. But if [the Yellow Deli]( is not your jam, there’s dozens of other [cult stories]( to choose from, whether you find it in a [satirical]( [show](, an [unforgettable]( [memoir]( or a [hair-raising podcast](. Perhaps our fascination stems from the desire to know why cult leaders try to manipulate others’ beliefs in the first place. As a kid, Betsey Stevenson was obsessed with the Salem witch trials. The [accused]( were [not]( cult members, of course. But “the collective hysteria that led an entire community to believe something so [obviously false](” is very much in line with the cults we obsess over today. The coercion — not the witchcraft — “was the real magic,” she writes. So what motivates manipulators? Econ 101 has the answer: “People are inclined to make decisions to maximize the quality of their own life — and these decisions don’t necessarily redound to the benefit of society,” she explains. “In other words: Incentives can lead someone to accuse someone else of being a witch.” “Economists who have studied witch killings” — a subset of the profession I wish I knew about when choosing to major in English as an undergrad — “have shown that [negative income shocks]( (caused [by bad weather]() may have spurred these deaths,” she writes. Other people believe the accusations stemmed from religious competition or disputes over [family farmland](. But whatever self-serving goal it was, 19 innocent women and men were hanged as a result. “Economists don’t often talk about how the simple pursuit of self-interested goals doesn’t necessarily create a society in which everyone is better able to meet their needs,” she writes. As Adam Smith [observed:]( “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” Read [the whole thing](. Bitcoin for Boomers I want you to look at the following chart for one second, and one second only. Don’t try to read the legend or look at the description, just take a glimpse at the blue line and then scroll ahead: What do you think it is? Take a guess. Oh, you thought it was Bitcoin? No. How about [Dogecoin](?! Wrong again. It’s actually gold, but it’s okay if that wasn’t the first store of value that popped in your mind: “This isn’t the behavior we expect of serious millennia-old asset classes; that’s what magical new-age virtual tokens are for,” Marcus Ashworth [writes](. One of those aforementioned new-age virtual tokens, Bitcoin, recently extended its rally to flirt with $44,000, which Isabelle Lee [says]( “is yet another byproduct of expectations of looser monetary policy as markets price in rate cuts for the new year.” Some traders are convinced that the coin will [surge to $50,000]( by January, but there’s a flip side to everything, she warns: “If the cryptocurrency continues to be a leveraged play on the money available in circulation, then the steady reduction of liquidity in the system would eventually bring down Bitcoin’s price.” The link between gold and Bitcoin is clear, as cryptocurrencies and the yellow metal are viewed by [doomsday preppers]( as their salvation if regular [fiat currencies]( stop being viable. “Bartering gold bullion for vital household items is about as likely as being able to access virtual cash if a catastrophe knocks out the power grid or the web,” Marcus says. Whether you’re a Gen Z tech bro bottling up your Bitcoins or a baby boomer [gold bug](, know that your unhealthy fixation is untethered from financial reality. Telltale Charts If your name is John, I’m sorry but things are about to get super awkward. Although Corporate America’s “boys’ club” has shed a few boys in recent years, we still have a long ways to go. “If you need proof, just note that, until recently, at any given time through history more male chief executive officers [named John]( were running big companies than the total number of women holding down the same job,” Beth Kowitt [writes](. Beyond the Johns, there’s a major disparity in what positions women are holding in the C-suite. More often than not, they’re jobs that aren’t providing female leaders with a pathway to the [tippy top](. When’s the last time you heard of a chief diversity and inclusion officer or a chief sustainability officer becoming the CEO? Your answer to that question says it all, really. Ummm did you realize that the most expensive version of Tesla’s Cybertruck weighs more than 6,800 pounds, about the same as a [white rhino](? I had no idea, until I read this Liam Denning [column](. In it, he says “EVs are, in general, significantly heavier than their gas-guzzler counterparts, due to having a battery rather than a fuel tank … its battery alone weighs about the same as a basic Honda Civic.” The extra pounds seem fine, until you realize that the Cybertruck would smash a Honda Civic to smithereens if there were to be an accident on the freeway. “As EVs become more commonplace, the chance of such mismatched collisions increases,” he warns. Further Reading Free read: Mayors could lead [the transition]( to a global green economy. — Lara Williams Free read: Amateur investors [are losing]( much of their net worth on risky bets. — Alex Yin Google’s [latest AI model]( looks remarkable, but it’s still slightly behind OpenAI. — Parmy Olson The nice thing about signing [an open letter]( is that no one can enforce it. — Matt Levine China isn’t anywhere near [as generous]( as its Western rivals. — Minxin Pei The principles of [the First Amendment]( don’t lend themselves to soundbites. — Noah Feldman Bonus Watching: It's almost Jobs Day! [Tune in]( as Claudia Sahm joins Johnathan Levin to break down the data. ICYMI Marjorie Taylor Greene [is hoping]( no one dies. Washington Post staffers staged the [biggest protest]( in 48 years. Elon Musk [wants to see]( Disney CEO Bob Iger get fired. A candidate for George Santos’ old seat [was convicted]( on Jan. 6 charges. Kickers You’ve heard of girl math. But how about [egg math](? Bowen Yang and Joel Kim Booster [aren’t laughing](. Bradley Cooper’s [food truck]( is a paparazzi paradise. The beginning of the end of NYC’s [turnstiles](. Notes: Please send unlimited [deviled eggs]( and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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