How worried are we about recession? Who knows

This is the Theme of the Week edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a digest of our top commentary published every Sunday. Follow us on Instag [Bloomberg]( This is the Theme of the Week edition of [Bloomberg Opinion Today](, a digest of our top commentary published every Sunday. Follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [X](, [Threads]( and [Facebook](. So, like, are we in a recession or not? The Covid-19 pandemic seemed to upend the meaning of a lot of things — not least of all our perception of time. It feels like we’ve been talking about [recession]( for years now … and that’s not entirely [untrue](. Despite the economy’s resilience and its refusal to slide into a technical recession, consumers’ long-term [inflation expectations]( increased to their highest level in 12 years, with Americans staying consistently worried about prices and becoming more uneasy about unemployment. They might have a point. Economist Claudia Sahm created the highly accurate Sahm rule, which uses the [unemployment rate as a recession indicator](. But she created that rule in the before times, and it might not prove true this time. “The pandemic was extremely disruptive, and the rebalancing of the economy has been messy and slow,” she writes. “That’s as true for inflation and supply chains as it is for the labor market.” Conor Sen also has concerns about the [labor market](: “If you’re a Fed policymaker, you now have reason to believe that the labor market has rebalanced, which should reduce your concern about a wage-price spiral fueling inflation in the medium-term,” he writes, adding that “downside risks to employment now outweigh upside risks to inflation.” Fed Chair [Jerome Powell probably didn’t ease worriers’ minds]( last week with his latest comments. Anyway, John Authers said the recession is over — ha ha, not the one you’re thinking of. He’s talking the one in [profits made by companies in the S&P 500](, and he reiterates that the corporate sector is not America’s economy. But “profits still look pretty bad given the apparent health of the economy, largely due to the pandemic’s continuing aftereffects on buying behavior,” he warns. Look, all we can tell you is that maybe we just don’t know if we’re in a recession, already over one or heading into a downturn. How’s that for lucidity? Here’s more from Bloomberg Opinion’s economy-watchers: - [The Rate of Global Economic Growth Is Meaningless]( — Tyler Cowen - [What Is the Goal of the 60/40 Portfolio?]( — Allison Schrager - [Please Don’t Call Inflation Anxiety Delusional]( — Clive Crook - [Buffett’s $157 Billion Cash Pile Isn’t an Ominous Sign]( — Jonathan Levin - [When a 13th Rate Hike Won’t Make Much Difference]( — Daniel Moss - [The Tipping Point From Tight to … What, Exactly?]( — John Authers What We’re Watching With war raging in multiple parts of the world, some members of Congress are trading stocks of defense companies. Even if those bets don't pay off, they give people the impression that members of Congress are attempting to profit from wars, says Bloomberg columnist Nir Kaissar. Congress has the authority to declare war, which also raises the possibility that personal financial considerations might partly drive decisions about war and peace. Lawmakers are facing some tough decisions in the US’s role in global conflicts, and the American public deserves to feel confident they aren't prioritizing their portfolios. Watch our [latest video](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](