Musk’s ad-free X is too expensive — and still filled with ads

Plus: Hezbollah's hold, China’s missing generals and more. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Premium+ Kool-Aid of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Social media [subscriptions]( are lame. - Hezbollah plays a [waiting]( game. - China’s generals [are]( feeling the shame. - “Bonds are best,” millennials [exclaim](. Nobody Needs It to Be Ad-Free You know how in The Sixth Sense, that one kid can see dead people? Yeah, well I have a special sense of my own, and it might be even more impressive: I don’t see ads. After years and years of suffering through [that one sponsored post]( about how two MIT grads created a patented algorithm to help me find my perfect wine match, I’ve trained my brain to simply stop computing them. Oh, you want to sell me a [bespoke]( bedspread? Or you think I — a person who lives in New York City and takes the subway to work — need a [robot aromatherapy diffuser]( for my car? Too bad, buddy! Both of those ads just went directly into the incinerator of my mind, never to resurface again. It’s a miracle, really. But not everyone is as gifted: Most ads are dumb — especially the ones implying that you’re into criminal activity. (I say most, because [the Black Friday]( commercial that Walmart released today was 10/10, no notes.) But would you really pay $16 a month to get rid of them? Elon Musk wants to believe you would: For a monthly fee that costs more than a sandwich at Jersey Mike’s, X users can now get an ad-free experience in their main feeds but not elsewhere on the site. Dave Lee [says]( users will still see plenty of other sponsored posts, including: “Ads on profiles, ads in post replies, ads in Immersive Media Viewer, promoted events in Explore, promoted trends, and promoted accounts to follow.” In other words: Each year, you’ll be handing the *richest person in the world* $192 of your hard-earned dollars, and you’re not even avoiding ads entirely!! That’s highway robbery! X Corp. “is now worth just $19 billion, according to its internal valuation,” Dave writes — a [huge decline]( from the $44 billion price sticker Twitter had a little over a year ago. [According to one estimate](, around 1 million people pay for X’s $8-a-month subscription — under 1% of its user base. But what percentage of those die-hards is going to drink the Premium+ Kool-Aid? Probably not as many as Musk thinks. For Meta, a newly-released [€9.99 ($10.57) a month]( ad-free plan in Europe isn’t about getting people to actually sign up. Instead, it’s one of Mark Zuckerberg’s many mind games in response to the European Union’s regulations. “As far as Meta’s concerned, it will be a roaring success if it’s a total flop,” Dave writes. You see, Meta wants to prove that users are fine with targeted advertising as long as it means they get to use Instagram and Facebook for free. “Consent, then, is in declining a subscription,” he explains. Some people say it’s totally [unfair]( for Zuckerberg to play the EU like this, but Meta says the European court previously suggested they were chill with the idea. At this point, having ads on social media is like having an annoying little sibling — sure, you don’t want them to cling on to your every move, but they’re in your life so you might as well get used to them. Or train yourself to tune them out, at least. Hezbollah’s Hold-Up Let’s talk about Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist group that’s backed by Iran. It’s been 25 days since Hamas’ [Oct. 7 terrorist attack](, which means that the West has spent the last 25 days holding its breath, waiting for Hezbollah to join the war. Why hasn’t [Hassan Nasrallah]( — the man at the helm of the military operation — entered the fight? Bobby Ghosh says his restraint suggests that Iran is reluctant to commit its most valuable asset — Hezbollah — to the conflict. Plus, [some analysts]( believe Tehran is still reveling in the “success” of Hamas’ attack, “thrilled that Israel’s [outreach to the Arab world has been stalled]( and that the war in Gaza is stoking regionwide, even global, anger at Israel and the US,” he notes. If Hezbollah were to [open a second front]( in Israel’s north, there’d be no doubt that the Lebanese militia would suffer massive losses, as it did in a 2006 conflict with [the IDF](. “With its economy shackled by economic sanctions, Iran would need years, decades even, to restore its proxy to peak fighting capacity,” Bobby explains. Read the whole thing for free [here](. Bonus Israel-Hamas Reading: Sending Palestinians to go rot in [Egypt’s Sinai desert]( can’t be Israel’s best answer. — Marc Champion The Mysterious Disappearance of China’s Generals I don’t know why, but I feel like this needs to be the title of a children’s book? Like: Oh, no! China’s generals have disappeared, let’s see if four orphaned children can help solve the mystery!! I think I’m onto something big: In all seriousness, China’s government officials are dropping like flies, and Minxin Pei [wants to know why](. After disappearing from public view for two months, Li Shangfu, the country’s defense minister and a member of the Chinese cabinet, was [dismissed]( last week with zero explanation. Most people suspect he was ousted for corruption allegations, and his removal arrives on the tails of another [unexpected replacement]( of two generals who headed up China’s Rocket Force, which oversees the country’s nuclear arsenal. Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping came to power and took over as the People’s Liberation Army’s commander-in-chief, he’s been keen to eliminate all forms of corruption. Investigators reportedly arrested at least [100 generals between 2013 and 2017](. That’s “more than the number of senior commanders China has lost on the battlefield since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949,” he notes. At the tippity top of the Chinese military hierarchy are four powerful positions, and men in all of them have been punished for corruption during Xi’s reign: Two are serving [life sentences](, [one committed suicide]( and [one died of cancer]( before his punishment was doled out. The grift stems from the fact that the PLA is not a national army; it’s just the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party. “Personal ties thus play a crucial role in promotions,” Minxin writes. “Ambitious but professionally unqualified officers can rise up the ranks simply by bribing commissars.” Once officers are able to accumulate enough dirty money to bribe their superiors, they can just buy their way to the top. “Over time, bad money drives out good; a very large number of officers in the military are thought to gain their positions via this route,” Minxin explains. Xi wants a competent army, but his military hasn’t fought in a real battle since the 1980s. “Having witnessed the abysmal performance of Russia’s corruption-ridden military in Ukraine, Xi must be genuinely worried about what might happen if he orders an army commanded by venal and incompetent officers into battle,” he concludes. Telltale Charts Serious question: Is the 21st century economy ever going to treat young people with a modicum of kindness? Erin Lowry [says](, “financial anxiety has become an exhausting part of adulthood reality, especially when it seems as if another recession or major world shock could upend whatever financial security younger adults have established.” All these “once in a lifetime” economic events sure seem to be happening a bunch in our lifetimes, and no one wants to get burned by another downturn. Maybe that’s why “millennials are embracing bond ETFs to a greater degree than other generations, as muscle memory from the several recessions they have already lived through kicks in,” Isabelle Lee [writes](. Likely adding to the stress of Gen Zers and Millennials is the fact that Social Security financial reserves are expected to run out by 2033. “At that point, without offsetting action, benefits will automatically be [cut]( by a quarter,” Bloomberg’s editorial board  [writes](. As life expectancy continues to rise, the retirement age will get pushed higher and higher, in turn [weighing more heavily]( on lower-wage workers, they write. The [best]( way for all workers to improve their financial security through their golden years would be to set up a supplementary retirement-savings account, similar to what the UK does with its National Employment Savings Trust. Otherwise, future retirees will be left with one ugly chart — and an even uglier bank balance: Further Reading There’s a fine line between doing [journalism]( and doing insider trading. — Matt Levine Crispr [is ready]( for its commercial debut. — Lisa Jarvis If JetBlue’s [takeover]( of Spirit Airlines fails, it might not be a bad thing. — Brooke Sutherland Supreme Court justices are missing [the main issue]( on social media. — Noah Feldman The US Fed thinks it can [take a break](, but it won’t be able to for long. — Bill Dudley Family-owned companies pump half of oil in the US, and [their riches]( may soon be for sale. — Javier Blas Hong Kong should [tread carefully]( now that it’s Asia’s crypto capital. — Andy Mukherjee ICYMI WeWork is heading for Chapter 11 [bankruptcy](. HBO’s [stealth trolling]( didn’t work out as planned. The Raiders [fired]( coach Josh McDaniels. Kickers Joe Rogan ate one too many [sardines](. If Johnny Cash [made]( a Taylor Swift cover. The Queen of Christmas [is back](. [Box homes]( are taking over LA. The (cheese) wheel [of fortune](. Notes: Please send the ancient art of tyromancy and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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