Israel may erase Hamas but Iran has already won

Plus: Traffic stops, breast cancer screenings and more. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a crime blotter of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The Middle East is on [the brink]( of disaster. - A lack of [traffic stops]( makes drivers go faster. - Family history isn’t the best [breast cancer]( forecaster. Israel-Hamas In a matter of days, the combined casualty count from the war between Israel and Hamas has reached [nearly]( 2,000, and [counting](: All deaths are tragic, but some more than others: A number of those killed are said to have been babies. [Beheaded]( ones, to be more specific. Israeli soldiers [reportedly]( found the corpses of some 40 infants in Kfar Aza, a kibbutz near Gaza. Based on the staggering [barbarity]( of the invading terrorists, “the Israelis are well within their rights to erase Hamas, the organization that committed these atrocities, from the Gaza Strip,” Andreas Kluth [argues](. “Israel’s friends must prepare for the fallout in human suffering, as the terrorists use fellow Palestinians as human shields and captive Israeli civilians as hostages,” he notes. But such an erasure threatens to ignite an inferno that could spread beyond the region and into the wider world. President Joe Biden and everyone in Congress “must realize that America’s challenge now is to get some of the world’s most difficult people to show restraint when their instinct is to abandon it,” Andreas writes. Just this afternoon, Biden [pledged]( his unwavering support to Israel, calling the Hamas attack on the country “an act of sheer evil.” Most of that support will come in the form of added munitions and intelligence. The US has even thrown in a brand-new nuclear powered aircraft carrier, [USS Gerald R. Ford](, which sits at the center of a carrier strike group that includes not only an aircraft wing of 80 planes, but five guided-missile ships: four destroyers and a cruiser. James Stavridis — who knows a thing or two about carrier strike groups, having commanded one during the 2003 invasion of Iraq — [points out that]( the hefty American fleet sends “a signal to Iran, Hamas’ principal backer, that any attempt to take advantage of this dangerous moment in Israeli history would face the might of the US military.” Speaking of Iran, Marc Champion [says]( Tehran is no longer as isolated or vulnerable as it once was. “The Hamas attack is precisely the kind of ostentatiously disruptive operation Iran has wanted to see for years, and offers a welcome distraction from its many internal problems,” he writes. Since Day 1 of Hamas’ brutal invasion, Iran’s leaders have applauded the terrorist organization’s “victory,” and it will be very difficult for Israel and the US to break that belief. “Invading a nation of 88 million that’s cut through by mountains and more than 2.5 times the size of Ukraine isn’t an option,” Marc writes. Which brings me to Iran’s oil deposits: As you can see in the above chart, for the last year, Saudi Arabia has cut its oil production to try and boost prices, while Iran has increased its production by as much as 700,000 barrels per day — the second-largest source of incremental oil supply this year, behind only the US. But Javier Blas [says]( it might not be that way for much longer. Given that Iran is Hamas’ biggest backer, Washington won’t be able to maintain its hands-off approach to the country’s crude production indefinitely. Traffic Stops If you’re ever looking for something fun to do in your spare time — aside from reading your [favorite newsletter]( — I suggest checking out the East Hampton Star’s [police logs](. There’s [something]( for everyone, from stolen helicopter iPads to [Drew Barrymore’s stalker]( to chicken parmesan sandwich larceny. One time they even [reported]( about how Alec {NAME}’s brother almost got hit by a plane. I know — this is not your average hobby. But it’s one of my favorite things to do, and [I’m not alone]( in [admitting]( that. Although I have zero personal connection to Long Island's South Fork, the Star’s local reporting is so thoroughly entertaining that I need not be familiar with the regular haunts of Hamptonites to get a dopamine rush off their petty crimes and misdemeanors. Last week, there was a woman in Sag Harbor who [stole]( a $180 porcelain pig from the local general store: Of course, not everything on the Hamptons crime blotter is this exciting. A lot of it is routine [traffic inspections]( and drunk-driving checkpoints. But that’s a good thing, considering America’s roads have become more death-strewn of late, [according]( to Justin Fox: Interestingly, East Hampton Town’s police chief told the paper that [Labor Day weekend]( was “one of the busiest weekends” on record. The same can’t be said about San Francisco, where citations are [down an amazing 97%]( in eight years. The city’s police say their traffic division headcount has reached an “all-time low” as they focus on [other crimes](. And this makes sense! East Hampton is an anomaly — very few police forces have enough time to ensure a lady hands back her porcelain pig, nonetheless operate routine traffic checkpoints. Traffic stops have seen a steep decline across the board: In Seattle, they’re [down 90%]( from the pre-pandemic average; in New York City, almost 40%; in [St. Louis](, 22% since 2019 and 47% since 2009. “And yes, all of these places had many more traffic fatalities last year than in 2019: 100% more [in Minneapolis](, 34% in [San Francisco](, 37% in [Seattle](, 28% in [New York]( and 30% in [St. Louis](,” Justin writes. These upward trends are “markedly different from what’s been happening in other wealthy countries,” he notes. What’s causing the uptick? Well, it’s probably not smartphones, since everyone — Europeans, Canadians, [Australians](, you name it — has one of those. It’s also probably not a hangover from Covid, since everyone dealt with that, too. What about those monstrous death-mobiles we call pickup trucks? Sure, they’re dangerous for pedestrians, but “it’s not as if there was a sudden massive increase in large-vehicle ownership after 2019,” Justin writes. Instead, it’s probably due to local police officers informally pulling back in the face of community criticism after the death of George Floyd in 2020. “Adding more speed cameras would probably reduce the death toll, but they remain unpopular in the US. Something’s got to give,” Justin says. Read [the whole thing](, and order me a chicken parm while you’re at it, will you? Crash Course  “Something fairly new in our recent history is the politics of White grievance coming to the fore and not really being masked or using euphemisms, but just straightforwardly out there." Robert P. Jones Writer and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute On the latest [episode]( of Crash Course, Tim O’Brien discusses the fraught relationship between [Christianity and racism]( with the author of The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy. Telltale Chart Breast cancer screenings are kinda like the Brandy Melville of medical tools. It’s advertised as a [one-size-fits-all]( type deal, but in reality, most of the clothing is ill-fitting for everyone. Maybe you can get away with wearing an oversized T-shirt. But jeans?? Yeah, no dice there, unless you’re a pre-pubescent tween. Similarly, breast cancer guidelines are still written for women at “average” risk — get your mammogram at 40, your annual screens by 45, yada, yada, yada. But what does “average” really mean? Nobody has the same genetics, breast density or lifestyle choices, which is why so many women [slip through the cracks](. Sure, we like to raise awareness around [Pinktober](, but Lisa Jarvis [says]( a more “personalized approach can help close the unconscionable gap in outcomes for Black women, who are diagnosed with breast cancer at a slightly lower rate than White women, yet are much [more likely]( to die from it, particularly when diagnosed at a younger age.” Further Reading China’s [computer chips]( are scary good, but it’s no time to panic. — The Editors Sam Bankman-Fried’s [pathological aggressiveness]( worked for him until it didn’t. — Matt Levine The fate of [Indigenous people]( in Australia depends on uninformed electors. — Teela Reid Gourmet [food halls]( have found a sustainable business model. — Howard Chua-Eoan Thanks to Claudia Goldin, women are no longer [a novelty]( not worth studying. — Betsey Stevenson [This gun case]( will blast another hole in the tattered credibility of the Supreme Court. — Francis Wilkinson Big Brother is getting even bigger in China, thanks to [the help of AI](. — Adrian Wooldridge ICYMI The Washington Post wants to [slim down its staff](. Mexico’s Puerto Vallarta faces a [Category 3 hurricane](. Finland’s [gas-pipe leak]( might be sabotage. Florida is ready to hand over its [Covid data](. Kickers New York is getting [a Wegmans](. Julia Fox is talking about [the artist](. Stanley Tucci hates [passion fruit](. One man’s trash is another man’s [treasure](. All of us could use some [forest therapy](. Notes: Please send empty Louis Vuitton boxes and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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