A report card on Vladimir Putinâs war [Bloomberg](
This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a CliffsNotes version to epic warfare and Bloomberg Opinionâs opinions. [Sign up here](. Todayâs Must-Reads - Another bunch of [BRICS]( in the wall.
- Nikeâs [Achilles heel](.
- The case of the [baby-murdering nurse](.
- The rich must learn to [share their privilege](. Or else. Ukraine vs. Russia: Trapped in an Unfinished Epic The Iliad begins in medias res â that is, in the middle of things, with the protagonists engaged in bitter feuds amid the fog of the Trojan War that is still a long way off from that wooden horse that ended it all. Thatâs sort of where we are 18-months into Vladimir Putinâs invasion of Ukraine: in the middle and muddle of things. On Wednesday, many speculated that he appeared to have dispatched his ally-turned-rival Yevgeny Prigozhin by way of a plane crash. Is that enough to re-establish Putin as the one true power in the Kremlin, quiet his critics and stabilize a home front thatâs been turbulent since Prigozhinâs revolt in June? âEverything from the style of the crash to its timing now resonates with the Putin regimeâs macabre sort of rhyme and meter,â Andreas Kluth [says](. It is a âsignal to all of his potential adversaries that insubordination means punishment up to and including death. This doesnât mean heâll no longer have enemies; only that the bar is now higher ... for them to plot their next steps.â The fate of Prigozhinâs Wagner Group is now nebulous as Putin sweeps aside the mercenary-in-chiefâs sympathizers, including General Sergey Surovikin, after whom Russiaâs defense âdragonâs teethâ line is nicknamed. Heâd vanished from view in the wake of the June mutiny; this week, he [lost his official post]( as commander of Russiaâs aerospace forces. In the meantime, Ukraineâs counter-offensive has become a slogâ nowhere close to the dramatic breakthroughs of last year. Max Hastings [urges]( both realism and persistence. To an extent, Max says, Kyiv can count on some successes: âUkraineâs summer offensive has inflicted substantial damage and losses upon Russian forces, especially by harrowing their rear areas, reserves and logistics hubs with long-range weapons.â However, he says, the lack of progress will depress public morale, which is critical for President Volodymyr Zelensky as the months turn into years. The commemoration of Ukraineâs independence on Aug. 24 was a somber affair. Readers of the Iliad had a sense of where that epic was headed. By the time Homer set it to verse, the Greeks knew they had triumphed and that Troy had suffered tragically. We, on the other hand, are trapped in medias res in Ukraine, with no one yet knowing how it will end. If this were a report card, the grade would be an âIâ for incomplete. Another Symptom of the China Syndrome It wasnât a great summit for President Xi Jinping of China. As he headed for an appearance at the BRICs convention in Johannesburg, his bodyguard got waylaid by South African security. He was also overshadowed by fellow BRICSter Prime Minister Narendra Modi of rival India, which received global accolades for being the first country to land a spacecraft on the moonâs south pole. Meanwhile, the drip, drip, drip of bad economic news from home continued. This week, the cause of anxiety was the [$9 trillion of debt]( by so-called local government financing vehicles (LGFV), incurred indirectly by provinces and cities amid the infrastructure boom. As Shuli Ren [notes](, China and its banks have too many sleight-of-hand habits to reclassify non-performing loans (she points out that US banks have their own flaws, too). Still, the LGFV statistic is quite alarming, as you can see from this chart: Washington may take some comfort in knowing that Chinaâs once unstoppable momentum has, well, stopped. But President Joe Biden has been emulating Beijing-style industrial policy. Allison Schrager [warns](of a âfoundational flawâ of such attempts to revive manufacturing and the semiconductor industry: âGovernments are not good at consistently picking winners â and are very bad at quickly cutting losses when they pick a loser.â Large-scale industrial policy can work, she notes. But the conditions arenât exactly democratic or salubrious. Says Allison: âUsually it involves a poor country with lots of cheap labor and a dictator with near perfect foresight and few political constraints. Even then, it can only get you so far. Industrial policy ran out of steam in other East Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea, and its limits are now becoming clear in China too.â Telltale Charts âWhen in doubt, flock to the buck ... Never mind that for years, it has been fashionable to assert that the US is in long-term decline at the hands of China, a view that has come in for some refreshing scrutiny.  Could there be deeper forces at work? A paper from the New York Fed in December attributed much of the dollarâs primacy to a so-called âImperial Circle.â The basic idea is that the dollar is not just integral to world commerce, but is increasingly important.â â Daniel Moss in â[The Dollar Is the Fortress China Struggles to Breach](.â âThe printed circuit board assembly, the camera module, the touch-screen display and the glass cover. Together, they account for three-fourths of the bill-of-materials cost of a smartphone. Vietnam, the worldâs second-biggest exporter of handsets after China, sources these and most other components at zero tariffs from free-trade partners. But India, which has few such accords of its own but is still keen to emulate the manufacturing powerhouse in its neighborhood, has customs duties as high as 22%.  The result? Making mobile phones in the worldâs most-populous nation now comes embedded with a cost disadvantage of 4%.â â Andy Mukherjee in â[Indiaâs Trade Policy Is Working Great â for Vietnam](.â Further Reading India needs more [moonshots](. â Andy Mukherjee A [kiss]( isnât just a kiss. â Bobby Ghosh Will your [homeâs value]( survive climate change? â Lara Williams [The Philippines]( and Southeast Asia are facing down China. â Karishma Vaswani How the world can [decarbonize](on the cheap. â David Fickling Walk of the Town: Tales of Closed Restaurants, Part 2 This week, I wrote [a column]( about the lessons of shuttered restaurants. A host of memories arose of favorite eateries â practically second homes â that were no longer in operation. Walking up East London to dinner on Thursday evening, I caught sight of a graffitied storefront across Kingsland Road. A glimmer of the old restaurant. Photographer: Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan The old sign was still there: Two Lights. It was a delicious, splendidly casual restaurant named for a state park in Maine, where the chef Chase Lovecky was from. I donât think I can count how many times I was there. I moved to Shoreditch a few years ago in part because I knew it would be nearby. It reminded this transplanted New Yorker of an America I was homesick for. I was having leftovers from Two Lights the night I came down with Covid in March 2020. As I recuperated, Chase delivered dumplings from his familyâs recipe. Two Lights itself barely survived the lockdown â and then it didnât. Drawdown Thanks for staying to the end. Sorry about this reminder of that old bug stirring up once more. âWhat are we supposed to do with that again?â Photographer: Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan Notes: Please send your sanitized (or unsanitized) feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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