So you want to be a UPS driver? Hold that thought

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a recurring delusion of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions, which will be greatly improved once you complete this [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a recurring delusion of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions, which will be greatly improved once you complete [this survey](, if you haven’t done so already. Today’s Agenda - UPS drivers have it made. Or [do they](? - Women are never the right age. Or [are they](? - Jay Powell is [a genius](. Or [is he](? - A puppy beats a Rolex. Or [maybe not](? Same-Day Delivery Normally, when you ask a child what they want to be when they grow up, they’ll tell you things like “I want to be a doctor” or “I want to be a movie star” or “I want to be a firefighter.” But what they probably don’t tell you is “I want to be a UPS driver.” But maybe they ... [should](? Source: [Twitter]( Last week, [negotiators]( reached a five-year deal that ensures the full-time drivers at the United Parcel Service will make about $170,000 a year, counting health-care coverage and other benefits — a $25,000 bump [up from]( their current pay. Not accounting for benefits, the direct-dollar salary should be around $130,000 in the final contract year. To put that into context, the average engineer in the US makes a base pay of about $92,000. It’s no wonder online jobs board Indeed saw a more than 50% increase in “UPS” searches. While the overnight fame of a career that’s notorious for causing double-knee replacements is [certainly]( [fodder]( [for]( [meme]( [creators](, it raises many questions about [the prosperity]( of America, Tyler Cowen writes. If “UPS drivers formed their own city, it would be one of the wealthiest in the US,” he says, noting that “in the UK, a city of UPS drivers would be the country’s richest by far, easily [surpassing]( the London metropolitan area.” US living standards are a global [anomaly]( — there’s virtually no other country in the world that would be able to pay drivers that much money. But as with all flashy careers with generous paychecks, there is a catch — and it’s not just the risk of [driver’s knee]( or having to work on [most]( holidays and weekends. Underneath the headlines about cushy $170K paychecks are plenty of caveats, or, in Tyler’s words, “countervailing forces.” The [Teamsters’]( deal comes at a time when package volumes are [dropping]( and Amazon’s shipping arm is gaining [momentum](. In that environment, UPS isn’t going to be handing out jobs like candy — and the people it does hire will have less negotiating power, due to the influx of applicants. Plus, there’s the painstaking process to get in the driver’s seat: “Before they can drive, workers first must accept lower-paid jobs sorting and loading packages, a quasi-apprenticeship that can last for several years. That too is economics at work,” Tyler reminds us. Read [the whole thing](. Hunting Season Since the [dawn]( of history, women have battled a number of cruel misconceptions. Take the hunter-gatherer trope: Men hunt; women gather. It’s what I learned in the first grade, and it tracked with my ability to be placated by bowls of pistachios and [raspberries]( from a young age. But the thing is, [it’s a myth](: A recent analysis of historical data found that out of 63 hunters, [50 of them were women](, F.D. Flam writes. Katniss Everdeen wasn’t some freak of nature — our female ancestors were wielding bows and arrows on Day 1. All around us are similar falsities, especially in the workplace, Andreea Papuc [explains](. For instance, if you’re a woman under 40, your superiors might say you’re not ready to take on a new project because you’re “too green.” But when you turn 40, your promotion is overlooked because you have “too much [family responsibility.](” By the time your big 6-0 rolls around, your whole career path has more chutes than ladders, and your [ageist]( male counterparts are miles ahead of you, even if they can’t claim to know a single thing about [menopause](. “Women need to constantly prove and reinvent themselves,” Andreea explains, and if you are a [woman of color](, the “never-right” [age bias]( gets even [more]( amplified. Of course, there are many ways to raise awareness of such fallacies. Maybe you, uh, put it in a newsletter, asking your male readers to please, for the love of [Greta Gerwig](, give your female employees ample opportunities for career advancement, no matter their age. Or perhaps you make a self-deprecating [board game]( called “[No Worries If Not!](” that details the pitfalls of daily life for women, including people-pleasing, overthinking, multitasking and over-apologizing: Or, or, or, maybe you come up with a [label]( — “[queenagers](” — to describe women who have tons of pricing power but are overlooked in middle age. The last one, while fun-sounding, might not be the best idea, Andrea argues. Women don’t need kitschy [Frankenwords](; they need to be “supported, valued and recognized at every stage of their careers.” It’s what the hunters would have wanted[!!!]( Inflation Vindication The beauty of opinion journalism (if you dare to call such endeavors beautiful) is that you can have Matthew Yglesias write about “[the economic and political genius]( of Jay Powell” and you can have Niall Ferguson write about how he’s “[pretty darned skeptical](about Jay Powell's [soft landing](,” and both of them can make valid points and be “right” in their own way. Countervailing forces and all that jazz! From Matthew’s seat, the Fed chief has made “a tremendous achievement” by hitting [3.2% year-over-year growth in the CPI](, despite it being a smidge higher than the vaunted 2% the central bank is officially targeting. “Millions of gainfully employed Americans have Powell — among others — to thank,” he writes, noting that “it’s an impressive result for a man who reached one of the most important jobs in the world through unlikely means.” From Niall’s seat, this fight is far from over: “I keep having to remind people that the dream of pain-free disinflation was a recurring delusion of the 1970s. The only times the Fed succeeded in bringing inflation down in that unhappy decade there were recessions: in 1970, 1974-75 and 1980,” he writes. In that light, it is much too soon to claim victory in the price war, even if history doesn’t totally repeat itself. Telltale Charts The Best Question of the Day award goes to Andrea Felsted, who[asks](: “What’s a better bet? A puppy or a Patek Philippe watch?” Amazingly, this is a rare instance where puppy-dog eyes do not prevail. Pet [prices]( have been plummeting, she writes, noting that although “demand for cats, dogs and rabbits [soared amid Covid restrictions](,” people are less keen to buy animals these days. The average price of a puppy is up by just over 1% over the past year, which, yes, is higher than a luxury watch, but dachshunds significantly underperform Rolex Daytonas on a three-year basis: Paul J. Davies has a new piece out [about shadow banks](, where he calls our increased reliance on them “an underappreciated shift in the Fed’s relationship to market finance.” Reading between the lines, that’s just a nice way of saying that things are getting incredibly sketchy underneath the hood of the Federal Reserve, in a what-happens-if-the-ATM-runs-out-of-cash-in-the-event-of-an-apocalypse sort of way. “The Fed formalized its job as the lender of last resort to the shadow banking system” after it saw “the problems that emerged during the dash for cash at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic,” he explains. Now, shadow banking is basically just as important as traditional banking. The whole thing is bad news, because “while banks have been made sturdier through tougher regulation, the biggest are still deeply entangled with shadow banks,” which haven’t been fortified in the same way, Paul writes. Now, the Fed is the final backstop to both: Further Reading Let's invest in colleges that educate [the most students](, not just the select few. — Michael R. Bloomberg Fingers crossed [this is the last time]( you’ll read about the Musk-Zuckerberg cage fight. — Dave Lee DeSantis’ campaign is [a disaster](, but not because he’s bad at politics. — Jonathan Bernstein No, small banks are not holding the bag on [half-empty office buildings](. — Justin Fox Think all [carbon credits]( are created equal? Think again. — Lara Williams The [office revival]( depends on free lunch. — Allison Schrager Harvard might find it tough to beat this [professor’s lawsuit](. — Stephen L. Carter [US hysteria]( over China could use a chill pill. — Andreas Kluth ICYMI Argentina’s [panic button](. Montana’s landmark [climate decision](. Pennsylvania’s [home explosion](. Maui’s [ugly]( [aftermath](. America’s [mean streak](. Kickers The [candy sellers](. The greatest [pogo stick](. The [prosciutto lawsuit]( you didn’t know you needed. The [new marine species]( that’s already famous. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Notes: Please send prosciutto and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](