For Modi, trouble in triplicate

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a summary of hot topics that are occupying Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. But you’ll find a couple of treats [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a summary of hot topics that are occupying Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. But you’ll find a couple of treats to cool off your weekend. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - [Unwanted](: American applicants for this top European job. - AI isn’t helping the [world’s leading chipmaker](. - The [repercussions]( of no “thank you” trades. - Can the US and China solve the climate crisis — [together](? For Modi, Violence at Home and Unwanted Rupees Abroad After weeks of silence, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally had something to say in public about the violence that has engulfed the northeast state of Manipur. He spoke after video emerged of two women being led naked through a village district by a mob, apparently victims of gang rape. “I assure the nation,” Modi said, “the law will take its course with all its might. What happened with the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven.” While he addressed the allegations of sexual assault, he did not broach the wider ethnic and religious conflict that is the “closest to civil war that Independent India has ever been,” as Ruth Pollard said in her column last week. The prime minister had convened a cabinet meeting on Manipur soon after returning from his much-celebrated overseas trip to the US at the end of June, but there was no announcement of what his government intended to do. There are an estimated 24,000 military, police and internal security forces in Manipur right now. For those tuning in, here is Ruth’s summary of what’s been happening since the beginning of May: “Angry mobs have burned thousands of homes and razed hundreds of churches. More than 120 people are dead and nearly 60,000 displaced. Upward of 4,700 weapons have been looted from armories, including AK-47s, rocket launchers and mortars. They are now being used by civilians and village defense groups to attack each other.” For more of Ruth’s assessment, see [here](. Modi was treated to a hero’s welcome in Washington during his June visit — mainly for making New Delhi the counterweight to Beijing. Even as his overseas influence has grown, India’s currency has stumbled after an attempt to take a bigger share of the global spotlight. A year ago, the country’s central bank began allowing foreign banks to open special rupee accounts with local lenders as a way to cultivate the use of the rupee as international tender. The use of rupees would, in theory, allow customers for, say, Russian oil to bypass the US dollar’s regulatory dominance (and avoid sanctions). But, as Andy Mukherjee [writes](, after Europe complained about a ship carrying Russian crude to Indian Oil Corp., State Bank of India — of which the government owns more than 60% — “lost its nerve” and stopped the rupee transaction. This month, Andy writes, “the refiner had to go to another bank, and ended up paying for Russian oil … [in yuan](.” He provides this graphic look at the limited market for a globalized rupee. Meanwhile, Will India Warm to INDIA? Modi’s Teflon popularity may yet be eroded by the horrific video images coming out of Manipur, but so far his approval ratings have frustrated India’s political opposition ever since he took office in 2014. Indeed, to many of the country’s 1.4 billion people — despite voluble criticism at home and abroad — Modi is India. Perhaps in an attempt to confuse the issue for next year’s general election, his opponents have come up with what they hope is a foil: a coalition called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance — or INDIA. It’s not as desperate as it looks, as Mihir Sharma [writes](. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party isn’t viewed as benevolently by voters as the prime minister — and so a less splintered opposition should avoid splitting votes when it takes on the BJP’s candidates. But INDIA has to be able to hang together to change India. In the recent past, parties in the alliance have seen Modi — who controls the purse strings in the capital — draw away their elected legislators to the BJP side. Furthermore, as Mihir says, INDIA is made up of bitter rivals — and there are lots of battles in the election in which they’ll have to learn to cooperate: The country has 543 parliamentary constituencies divided among 28 states and nine union territories. If the prime minister modifies BJP tactics and turns on a reformist charm, he could easily flummox the new coalition. That may well spell the end of INDIA. For Ukraine, No Grain Means Lots of Pain As has been his wont, Russian President Vladimir Putin has recalculated — and he won’t allow Ukrainian grain and oilseed shipments through the Black Sea. When the war started, any naval injunction of Kyiv’s agricultural exports would have adversely affected any sympathy the Global South may have had for Moscow. The countries there needed the wheat. Now, that has changed, so Putin is breaking the so-called Black Sea Grain Initiative. He’s striking Odesa, Ukraine’s export hub, and threatening any ship believed to be carrying wheat from Ukrainian farms. As Javier Blas [explains](: “Wheat prices have fallen nearly 50% from their 2022 peak, easing pressure in the Global South. On the propaganda front, Moscow can show that Ukrainian shipments have been largely flowing into wealthy European nations and China, rather than hungry countries in Africa. Meanwhile, Russia’s own wheat exports have surged to an all-time high, limiting any extra gains for the Kremlin in continuing with the deal.” Furthermore, global food prices are down more than a fifth from their 2022 peak, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Russia has helped keep prices down because of its record wheat exports. And it will hurt Ukraine. The country made billions of dollars from its exports last year, bolstering its military defense and counteroffensives against Moscow. Meanwhile, the land export routes have basically shut down for Kyiv because its neighbors — non-belligerent as they are — have banned Ukrainian food exports to protect their own farmers. For Putin, it’s a timely weaponization of Russian agriculture. Says Javier: “Kyiv is going to need help. The collapse of the grain corridor, alongside the overland route to its eastern European neighbors, will cost Ukraine dearly. More is at stake than just the cost of breakfast.” Telltale Charts “Headline inflation dropped sharply to 7.9% in June from 8.7% the previous month, results that were indeed better than had been expected and marked the biggest positive surprise on UK inflation in two years. But they’re still worse than in the euro zone, and the fall in core inflation, excluding fuel and food, was only 0.2 percentage points.” — John Authers, “[Just When We Needed a Cooling Trend, Here’s the UK](” “Hurting Russia has taken priority over afflicting Iran and Venezuela — two other oil-producing giants also under sanctions. It’s a strange variation of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ — in this case, the West is acting as if ‘the friend of my enemy is my friend.’ Odd! As a corollary, Washington concluded that achieving its objective of harming Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine required it to accept helping Iran and Venezuela.” — Javier Blas, “[The Smoke and Mirrors of Western Oil Sanctions](” Further Reading You’ve been [cloned]( on the big screen. Are you owed money? — Parmy Olson Biden’s China semiconductor ploy will [backfire](. — Dave Lee The age of the [globocorp]( is coming to an end. — Adrian Wooldridge The UK joins the worldwide [EV battery race](. — Matthew Brooker Gucci’s risky double [rupture](. — Andrea Felsted Walk of the Town: Looking for Jane Birkin on New Bond Street I don’t know why I thought there’d be some clear tribute to the late singer Jane Birkin at the main showroom for Hermès in London. After all, the English model turned French culture influencer — who died in Paris on July 16 at the age of  76 — was the inspiration for one of the company’s most iconic products, the Birkin bag (at one recent Sotheby’s sale, a Diamond Himalayan Birkin went for $450,000). On the Wednesday after her death, I walked into the shop at 155 New Bond Street — just a few minutes walk from Claridge’s hotel — to see a line of people waiting to put their names on a list expressing their interest in Hermès products. I was asked if I wanted to do so myself, but I demurred, saying I just wanted to look around. The shoppers were a global scrum: elegantly headscarfed women, Mandarin-speaking couples in sneakers, a slightly flustered aspiring client asking a clerk, “How do I give you my wish list?” Stricken with status anxiety, I felt I had to buy something. Fortunately, I saw nothing I could possibly want among the bags, outfits, towels and accessories on display. Still, there was nothing on either level that looked like a memorial to Birkin. It was luxury commerce as usual. In 1984 — according to the Hermès origin story on its UK store [website]( — the French company’s executive chairman Jean-Louis Dumas was on a flight and seated next to Birkin, who talked about not being able to “find a bag suitable for her needs as a young mother.” Dumas, the website says, immediately designed one for her, complete with sections for baby bottles. As of Friday, the website’s Birkin bag page had no mention that Jane Birkin had died. Of course, only the name’s the same. Despite inspiring the product, Birkin had no financial interest in the bag. And maybe I expected too much. French President Emmanuel Macron did pay tribute to her as a French icon. More important, she can claim another kind of immortality apart from her role as an ur-influencer of contemporary life on both sides of the channel. Birkin is now a byword — literally a word — for luxuriousness and extravagant spending, a utilitarian object that has been fetishized into status symbol. Other people have been transformed into neologisms, their names completely identified with things: the pompadour (after Louis XV of France’s mistress, Jeanne Antoinette Poisson, also known as Madame Pompadour), shrapnel (after Henry Shrapnel, the British military officer who invented the fragmentary shell). Birkin is certainly not as silly as pompadours have become, neither as brutal as shrapnel. A personal note: Hermès main London store is in what used to be the Time & Life Building, the London outpost for one of the great journalistic organizations of the 20th century, which I used to work for. It’s now just the name on a fading plaque. Given today’s [markets that cater to the rich](, Birkin’s name — thanks to Hermès’ line of bags — will be a bit more glittery. Photographer: Howard Chua-Eoan Weekender: A London Treat I’m a big fan of most everything on the menu at the new Sri Lankan restaurant Rambutan in Borough Market. There is one summer cross-cultural spectacular on its menu that should not be missed: a soft-serve version of Watalappam, a traditional cardamom and coconut custard. Order it with a swirl of kithul palm syrup. Watalappam soft serve. Photographer: Howard Chua-Eoan Plus: If in New York ... Last month, I wrote about the beginning of Broadway previews for [Here Lies Love](, David Byrne’s musical about Imelda Marcos, and how it might play now that her son is president of the Philippines. The show opened on Thursday night, and the New York Times gave it (and its “disturbing” subject) a mixed but mostly positive [review](, perturbed mainly by all the applause for the disco portrait of its authoritarian protagonist: “Here Lies Love bets that glamour can make up for narrative — or, rather, that in a show about the dangers of political demagogy, glamour itself is the narrative. It’s a case of form follows function into the fire. We are drawn to cultural and political excitement in much the same, often dangerous way.” It’s the kind of mesmerism Filipinos lived through for two decades under her husband’s regime. And they may be living through it again. Go see the show, and by all means bring your outrage. But put on your dancing shoes. Drawdown The weather outside is frightful. Make sure you go out prepared. Here’s a little reminder. “What do you mean, you forgot to bring the sunblock?” Illustrator: Howard Chua-Eoan Notes: Please send feedback and recipes for hot-weather coolers to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](