Farewell, vibecession, we hardly knew ye

Plus: Hollywood's strike, graphite's might and more. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a positive feedback loop of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Consumers]( go [bold](. - China’s [climate]( chokehold. - [Hollywood]( sets grow cold. - [San Francisco](’s decline isn’t foretold. RIP to the Vibecession If the vibecession were to have an obituary, I imagine it’d go something like this: The Vibecession, age 1, passed away on July 14, 2023, after the biggest one-month advance in consumer sentiment since 2006. The Vibecession was predeceased by its cousin, [The Great Resignation](, and is survived by Quiet Quitting, Rage Applying and the Virtuous Consumption Cycle. The Vibecession grew up in the post-Covid economy, where self-sabotaging households and investors constantly worried that a recession was on the horizon, despite conditions being not awful. The world is grateful to know that the Vibecession, sometimes thought to be a self-fulfilling prophesy, is finally at peace. Services, with a eulogy by [Kyla Scanlon](, will be held at your local Target, in the Dollar Spot section next to the [$5 Mini Vending Machine]( you contemplated buying last week. Jonathan Levin says “the economy is entering a positive [feedback loop](” after over 12 long months of being stuck in the strange vibe-y limbo that made us all moody as hell — especially when the self-checkout kiosk showed a prompt to leave [a 20% tip](. Now, we’re feeling more upbeat about the economy, which is causing a number of helpful knock-on effects: households spend more, businesses make more money, stocks go up, more workers get hired, which — in turn — makes people even more willing to whip out their credit cards to buy pink paraphernalia for [that Movie]( that [Must Not Be Named](. Take one look at Mattel’s share price and you’ll get a better understanding of certain [consumers’]( unrelenting itch to shop, Andrea Felsted explains: This new era comes at a time when inflation — for both producers and consumers — is looking “better than expected, further supporting the notion of a [soft landing]( for the economy,” Mohamed A. El-Erian writes. In these rosier conditions, one might expect Amazon to shine. But Leticia Miranda says sales from the company’s Prime Day event [fell short]( of forecasts. “This year’s results expose Amazon’s struggle to become not just a great delivery company but a great retailer,” she writes. The everything store’s playbook is so well known at this point that other retailers have no choice but to offer their own copycat discounts over the two-day event. Think about your inbox last week. How many “Prime Day” emails did you receive that had nothing to do with Amazon? I had offers touting “prime pricing” from Tennis Express, Fabletics, the San Francisco Chronicle and SoulCycle. All of this extra marketing creates what Leticia says is “a Black Friday-esque sales event,” which ends up eating away at Amazon’s bottom line: The economy might be entering a positive feedback loop, but where all that positivity gets spent is a whole ’nother story. Bonus Economic Vibe Reading: Did the [banking crisis]( of March have any impact at all? — John Authers and Isabelle Lee Going for Graphite As the author of this newsletter, I tend to have a gazillion tabs open so that I can click through Bloomberg Opinion’s columns and figure out how to deliver them to you in a coherent(ish) manner. This is normally fine. But if you were to walk by my desk today and saw this particular [tab]( — “THE GRAPHITE BOMB” — and the even more alarming pop-up window within it, you’d either think that I’m [Oppenheimer](’s biggest fangirl, or you’d call the authorities: But believe it or not, I was simply minding my own business, reading Liam Denning’s [column]( about Joe Biden’s new bet on graphite mining when that pop-up appeared within one of the links. There’s a nonzero chance that I’m now on some sort of government registry for the explosive-curious, but it was a necessary sacrifice. Graphite, I learned, in addition to having a variety of defense applications, “is the single biggest ingredient by weight in the batteries that go into electric vehicles and the power grid, far ahead of lithium,” Liam writes. It’s also the primary subject of the [Derwent Pencil Museum](, but I digress. The issue is, the US hasn’t produced any of the stuff since the early days of the Defense Production Act of 1950. And China’s [chokehold]( on the battery ingredient is immensely strong: It accounts for more than two-thirds of natural graphite mining and about 60% of synthetic graphite production. The Pentagon’s $37.5 million grant to [Graphite One](, a startup working to harvest the material, sends a message to China about climate change and national security risks, neither of which is adequately priced in the market, Liam argues. More broadly, China is peculiarly placed in the climate change fight: On one hand, its “solar panel supply chain is already approaching the scale needed for the world to hit net zero,” David Fickling explains. But on the other hand, there’s “no other country that is spending as much on dirty energy,” he notes. “[China’s hunger]( is not so much for clean or dirty energy, as energy full stop,” David concludes. Clearly, America is going to need more than just graphite to win this game of catch-up with China. It’s Not an Act; It’s a Labor Dispute Speaking of Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan’s cast [ditched]( the UK premiere to prepare their pickets and join the strike, which began midnight on Friday. The [Screen Actors Guild]( — SAG, for short — announced the walkout after negotiations failed with the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers, which represents the studios of Disney and Netflix, among others. For the first time in six decades, the [actors]( — ranging from Jane Fonda to Ariana Grande — are joining the writers, many of whom have been on strike for 72 days at this point. “It’s a delicate time,” Dave Lee writes, pointing to the [arrival of ChatGPT]( as the catalyst that sent ripples through Hollywood. “What if AI could eliminate the need for real filmmaking entirely?” he asks. “If we’re in a world where technologists believe that the likeness of human beings does not belong to those human beings, because they're reducible to zeros and ones, we've upended a major pillar of our economy,” Hilary Krane, chief legal officer at Creative Artists Agency, told him last month. Consider not the [Margot Robbies]( of the acting world, but people like Emma Eastwood, who recently got the role of a lifetime as Barbie’s [body double](. If automation has its way, the work of background performers like Emma risks getting diminished, Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG’s chief negotiator, argues. With AI, she could get a full-body scan and a single day’s pay, after which studios would own her likenesses for the rest of eternity. Telltale Charts Getting into Soho House is sort of like getting onto [Raya](, an exclusive dating app for celebrities and Silicon Valley wunderkinds. You need to fill out an application. You need cool friends who are already members. And you need to have money. But you want to join the trendy [private club]( in Mexico City, you need to have an I-Own-an-Hermès-Birkin-Bag amount of money: “Mexico’s currency, which has surged about 40% in the last several years, hugely increases [the cost of Soho House]( membership in dollar terms,” Juan Pablo Spinetto writes. The price tag — 47,000 pesos, or $2,727 USD a year — will be a true test of the club’s value proposition. If you were to look at a list of America’s most affluent metropolitan areas in 1949, Detroit, Michigan — once the fifth-largest US city — would be at the tippy top. Today, that list looks a lot different, with San Jose and San Francisco leading the pack, and Detroit — the great case study in American urban decline — all the way down in the 38th spot. It’s no secret that the Bay Area’s crime and disorder have become a central focus in recent years, so “it’s probably inevitable that [some]( have begun [labeling]( San Francisco the [next Detroit](,” Justin Fox writes. But it [doesn’t have to be this way](, he argues: San Francisco “faces [falling tax revenue](, but, unlike Detroit after the late 1960s, it does not have to contend with hostile suburbs or an unfavorable state and national political environment.” Further Reading Netanyahu’s [priorities]( for Israel are out of line. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Talk of the UK’s [mortgage]( rate is dangerously misleading. — Marcus Ashworth Turkey and Egypt ended [their feud]( 10 years too late. — Bobby Ghosh “No one wants to hire a White guy” right now? [Not so fast](. — Kathryn A. Edwards Hong Kong’s real estate slump has [an easy fix](. — Shuli Ren [Sniping]( between justices undermines the Supreme Court. — Noah Feldman Biden’s Democratic [victory lap]( isn’t a clear win. — Niall Ferguson ICYMI The pure panic of a New York [office landlord](. The [oil caverns]( that will take years to refill. The great American [bus renaissance](. Kickers [This Bachelor]( gets a senior discount. Everyone’s wearing [G-strings](. [Divorce parties]( are all the rage. [This woman]( hit the wrong man with a burrito. Who is giving birth to [all]( [these]( [brothers](? (h/t Dave Lee) Source: @Dan Amira on Twitter Notes: Please send your brothers' burritos and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Threads](, [TikTok](, [Twitter](, [Instagram]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. 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