The next presidency hinges on Trump's court case

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a dive bomb into Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Trump’s indictment seeds a legal minefield. SE [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a dive bomb into Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Trump’s indictment [seeds a legal minefield](. - SEC answers crypto’s prayers. [“No,” says SEC](. - It’s time for [LVMH to revive a retro timepiece](. - Sri Lanka needs [a bond restructuring agreement](. Donald Trump Will Get His Day in Court. But When? The indictment of former President Donald Trump on federal charges creates an unprecedented legal quagmire. He is reportedly charged with willful retention of national defense information, corruptly concealing documents, conspiracy to obstruct justice and making false statements. Violating the Espionage Act by retaining national defense information can carry up to 10 years in prison, and obstructing justice can result in as many as 20 years behind bars. Photographer: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images The various scenarios that might play out, given his stated intention to run in the 2024 election, all sound far-fetched. They range from him winning office before his trial reaches a verdict and dismissing the federal case against him, being convicted before winning the election and trying to pardon himself, or being found guilty but with no jail time to prevent him from running the country. There’s even the outside prospect, according to Noah Feldman, of a convicted, sentenced Trump [serving as president from inside prison](. “We have no idea how that would work,” Noah writes. “The Constitution is silent on the imprisonment of a president.” So the timing is everything. Trump’s lawyers will aim to delay proceedings for as long as possible, Noah notes. He’ll make bail, so he won’t be in prison before the trial. “But it is almost certain that Trump will now be tried criminally in the midst of his presidential run,” says Noah. “A former president, a leading candidate for the presidency, has been charged criminally in a case where he is, statistically speaking, very likely to be convicted. From here on out, it’s all new ground.” For Timothy O’Brien, Trump’s indictment will test whether Republicans are on the side of law and order or if they remain “[hostages to their own immorality and cowardice](, and to Trump’s firm sway over about a third of the party’s voters.” The party’s core remains loyal to Trump, with deep allegiances to each other and a self-interest in fomenting anarchy and unrest for political purposes. “Given how swiftly some Republicans dismissed the severity and bona fides of the pending federal charges — and their behavior for years now — too many of them will continue to favor lawlessness,” Tim writes. “Attacking and undermining the Justice Department to protect Trump and their own prospects has been a core electoral strategy for Republicans.” Crypto’s Winter Is Getting Colder Those of us who are skeptical of the hype surrounding digital currencies and mistrusting of the various fleas attached to Dogecoin and other tokens are applauding this week’s crackdown by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The regulator has charged market leaders Binance Holdings Ltd. and Coinbase Global Inc. with breaking US securities rules. While it may not yet be time to dance on crypto’s grave, it sure looks like we can start taking measurements for its coffin. When Coinbase became the first (and thus far only) publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange in the US in 2021, it rode a wave of retail-trading hype to land with a market capitalization of $86 billion. This week, its value has plummeted to $13 billion. Maybe, suggests Lionel Laurent, [some companies and industries just aren’t suitable for the public markets?]( Coinbase’s offering prospectus included some 60 pages of so-called risk factors, including the danger that the transactions it facilitates might be deemed to qualify as investment contracts with the accompanying regulatory scrutiny that would entail — which forms part of the SEC’s allegations this week. “Investors might agree or disagree, but they were clearly informed,” notes Lionel. But there’s a broader argument that goes beyond whether those disclosures offered sufficient protection to investors. Given the sheer volume of identifiable dangers, maybe the company was never suitable for public investors. Those legal risks may have required more than red flags; given crypto’s history of scams, criminal activity and cyber ransoms, maybe investor protection should have taken precedence over the desire to allow a major crypto exchange to list and be based in the US rather than seeing it go offshore beyond regulators’ reach. “Crypto wouldn’t be the first industry to get a regulatory bucket of cold water after a stock-market frenzy — online gambling and weed spring to mind as industries that went through speculative booms and busts despite a lack of legal clarity,” Lionel writes. Maybe regulators and the stock exchange should make suitability more of a priority — “before the next hot industry comes to town.” Bonus DeFi reading: What’s the best use for crypto? [Let AI figure it out](. — Tyler Cowen Historical Horology Earlier this year, Swatch Group AG released a special version of its MoonSwatch featuring a gold second hand. Watch fans lined up to buy the latest iteration of the spectacularly successful mash-up of its high-end Omega brand and its entry-level Swatch marque, creating timepieces based on the former’s Speedmaster Moonwatch, the first watch worn on the moon.  Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg The Swatch version costs around $250, while the Omega classic retails for about $7,000. “Not only did the MoonSwatch become a global retail phenomenon when it launched in March 2022, but it created a halo around the Omega brand,” writes Andrea Felsted. Sales of Omega Speedmaster models subsequently increased by a percentage in the double digits. It’s a trick that LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE chairman Bernard Arnault and his 28-year-old son Frederic should copy [by resurrecting a long-discontinued Formula 1 watch]( from the 1980s and ’90s to juice interest in their TAG Heuer timepieces. That old watch has been “getting a lot of love from the watch bros,” Andrea notes. Originally issued in 1986, the Formula 1 model featured brightly colored bezels, cases and straps, with the option of a steel case and bracelet. “Timepiece platform Hodinkee recently called for a return of the icon,” says Andrea. “Menswear influencers have been extolling its virtues.” LVMH should be strategic with any reissue, though. It needs to be exclusive, available in colorways sold for limited periods that fans can buy individually or collect the set. And it should priced to attract younger customers who might not otherwise be available to afford the brand. “Frederic is one of Bernard Arnault’s five children who might eventually succeed him at the luxury conglomerate,” Andrea argues. “Turbocharging TAG Heuer could put him in pole position.” Telltale Charts Sri Lanka is on the road to recovery, after a crumbling economy led last year to its first sovereign default. “Banks and other domestic institutions should strike a bargain with authorities, and agree to write off a part of what they have lent to the government in the past,” argues Andy Mukherjee. “International investors [will be more likely to accept a restructuring]( in which the pain is spread fairly among the three main affected groups: local banks, official lenders and foreign bondholders.” Further Reading Tesla’s deal with General Motors]( is bad news for the rest of the electric-vehicle-charging industry. — Liam Denning [Wildfires will become more common](, and increasingly dangerous. — Bloomberg’s editorial board [Renegade royal Prince Harry]( confronted his demons in a London courtroom. — Matthew Brooker Britain’s Labour Party is winning the business vote with [a prawn-cocktail offensive](. — Adrian Wooldridge The [US consumer spending mystery]( is not so mysterious after all. — Claudia Sahm Elon Musk promised transparency, then [started hiding Twitter data](. — F.D. Flam ICYMI A new [night train through the heart of Europe]( has a lot riding on it. Humans are biased. [Generative AI is even worse](. [Ukraine’s new tanks see their first action]( as counteroffensive against Russia gets underway. [Russian billionaires shut out from the world]( are forced to spend their fortunes at home. Kickers It’s turning out to be an incredibly worrying year for [the amount of sea ice in the Antarctic](. Source: National Snow & Ice Data Center via Zack Labe A London crow has been [dive-bombing women with long hair](, believing them to be a threat to the chicks in its nest. A Las Vegas police officer’s [bodycam recorded footage of a UFO](. Later, a nearby resident called in a report of something “100% not human” on their property. Allegedly. Notes: Please send extra pillows and feedback to Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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