Talk of humanity's demise is greatly exaggerated

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an unidentified anomalous phenomenon hovering over Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. AI poses 99 [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an unidentified anomalous phenomenon hovering over Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - AI poses 99 threats but [extinction ain’t one](. - Plus, AI robots can’t clean [our plastic-polluted oceans](. - OPEC+ unity [may not be all it seems](. - [Happy 25th birthday](, European Central Bank! No, An AI Drone Didn’t Try to Kill Its Human Overseer Artificial intelligence continues to dominate the headlines. A story about an AI-powered drone deciding to try to exterminate its human operator for becoming an obstacle to its mission [just went viral](, after a report that Colonel Tucker “Cinco” Hamilton, the chief of AI test and operations for the US Air Force,[told a Royal Aeronautical Society conference]( about the incident. On Friday, the RAS said Hamilton “misspoke,” and was discussing a hypothetical “thought experiment” based on plausible scenarios and likely outcomes rather than a real-world example. But the episode highlights the world’s willingness to believe the worst when it comes to the threat posed by smart software. Earlier this week, a group called the Center for AI Safety issued a one-sentence warning: Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war. For Tyler Cowen, [the brevity of the statement](, backed by an impressive list of signatories including many leaders in the AI field, poses a problem. “Perhaps this is a bold move, and it will help stimulate debate and generate ideas,” Tyler writes. “But an alternative view is that the group could not agree on anything more.” Moreover, he doesn’t think the current trajectory of AI development poses an existential risk to humanity. The group does itself a disservice by linking the dangers posed by software with the risks of nuclear war or a second pandemic, which aren’t high on the political agenda. The failure to accompany the warning with any policy recommendations, along with the fact that many of the signatories are based on the West Coast of the US and are themselves at the forefront of AI research, also undermines the message. “The petition may be doing more to signal the weakness and narrowness of the movement than its strength.” Tyler says. “I praise the signers’ humility, but not their political instincts.” In cheerier software-is-taking-over-the-world news, Lara Williams writes that AI algorithms [are being used in the fight against climate change, biodiversity decline and pollution](, including scanning satellite images for evidence of deforestation, improving the integration of renewable supplies into energy grids and improved climate modeling. But efforts to tackle plastic pollution in the oceans need more than just smart robots to succeed. The Ocean Cleanup project, one of the best-funded and well-known marine-plastic-clearing undertakings, has developed an AI tool to detect and map plastic objects at sea. But its method for removing that debris has simply reinvented trawl fishing. “By its own estimates, tens of thousands of small sea creatures such as crustaceans, fish, jellyfish and squid could potentially get caught in the nets even when the system is used at its slowest speed,” Lara writes. Its first 12 trips to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch caught 193,832 kilograms of plastic along with 667 kg of so-called bycatch, mostly fish, sharks, mollusks and sea turtles. Moreover, the diesel ships used to drag the nets make the process very carbon-intensive. “The moral of the story is that artificial intelligence isn’t going to magically fix our problems, and the futuristic option isn’t always the most effective choice,” Lara cautions. “A global, legally binding treaty, like the one being hashed out in Paris this week, will make the biggest difference to the plastic problem by tackling it at source rather than remedying the symptoms.” Bonus AI reading: Calls for regulation from OpenAI’s Sam Altman use an old-school tactic that has [nothing to do with the greater good](. — Stephen Mihm Oil May Not Be Well at OPEC+ The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets in Vienna on Sunday. “On the surface, everyone is unified in the OPEC+ family,” writes Javier Blas. “Listen to the ministers ahead of their meeting on Sunday, and everyone is making the right noises. [Behind closed doors, it isn’t as smooth](, however.” The United Arab Emirates, the fourth-largest producer in the alliance, wants to secure an increase in the amount of crude it’s allowed to pump. Clashes two years ago over the issue forced an adjournment, with the UAE eventually backing down. Javier reckons this time, Saudi Arabia may be willing to grant a higher quota in 2024. With oil prices down almost 30% since late last year, to around $70 a barrel, “it’s difficult to see how committing to add supply would be anything but bearish,” Javier writes. “Looking ahead, into 2024, if the UAE gets its way at OPEC+, we could see more downward pressure on oil prices.” Telltale Charts The European Central Bank celebrated its 25th birthday this week. The institution was created to oversee the common currency, with a mandate to keep inflation in the euro zone within a percentage point of 2%. “Its main problem during the post-crisis 2010s was staying above 0%,” notes John Authers. “Now, core inflation across the eurozone has topped 5%. It’s just started to fall, [but this is not a great look](.” Alan Shaw became chief executive officer of railroad company Norfolk Southern Corp. in May 2022. He told Brooke Sutherland that rail companies have been too focused on near-term operating margins, cutting staff during downturns and leaving them [vulnerable to losing business when demand rebounds](. “I’m not going to get it right as to exactly when the economy is going to take a downturn or when it’s going to recover,” he said. “There are strategic assets we know we’re going to need over time. Just acknowledge we’re never going to get the timing perfectly right and let’s invest in those.” Further Reading Turkey highlights the world’s [compassion deficit syndrome](. — Howard Chua-Eoan [Ukraine’s survival is vital]( to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. — Hal Brands Why does [Vladimir Putin tolerate Yevgeny Prigozhin](, the uppity boss of the private army called Wagner? — Andreas Kluth Erik Nordstrom should [unleash his inner Bernard Arnault](. — Leticia Miranda and Andrea Felsted [Obesity drugs won’t work]( if no one can afford to buy them. — Bloomberg’s editorial board As a treatment for depression, [ketamine remains a mystery](. — Lisa Jarvis ICYMI Hedge funds are offering [guaranteed payouts worth as much as $120 million](as they scramble to lure top traders. Global food costs have dropped to [their lowest level in two years](. Wealthy Latin Americans are turning [laid-back Madrid into a Spanish Miami](. How to enjoy a [low-carbon, high-impact]( summer vacation. Kickers A team [commissioned by NASA to study UFOs]( says it needs more and improved data. Meantime, a UFO was seen [hovering near Harry and Meghan’s $14 million mansion](in southern California. Allegedly. A researcher has identified a text of [a 15th-century live comedy performance](. Notes: Please send medieval jokes and feedback to Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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