Popes, puffers and poof goes the money

Plus: Buying the Fed pause, hellish meetings and more. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a social brain of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - AI is getting [more dangerous](. - To buy or not to buy [the Fed pause](. - Meetings are hell [for a reason](. - Our children [are hurting](. Puff Puff Pope People can’t get enough of the marshmallow Pope!!! So let’s talk about it. A fake image of Pope Francis generated by AI (left); a real photo of Pope Francis (right). Source: r/midjourney via Reddit.com created using Midjourney v5; photographer: Grzegorz Galazka/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images At first, it was all fun and games for the construction worker from Chicago, who calls himself Pablo Xavier. He just wanted to have a laugh while tripping on some shrooms: “I try to do funny stuff or trippy art — psychedelic stuff. It just dawned on me: I should do the Pope,” he [told Buzzfeed](. But after he made the now-famous image using the AI program Midjourney, everyone from your mom to Chrissy Teigen fell for the image, which Parmy Olson and Paul J. Davies write was “just plausible enough to be believable.” And although it’s amusing to see a hipster Pope decked out in a designer puffer jacket, [the next case of AI misinformation might not be as low-stakes](. Take Silicon Valley Bank. Think about the sheer speed in which the saga unfolded. Some $42 billion — over half of its demand deposits — went *poof* within hours. Social media was an added contagion that elevated fear and drove bank withdrawals. In 2008, if you were to ask a pedestrian what the phase “DM” meant, maybe they’d tell you “Dave Matthews” or “Dungeon Master” — not “Direct Message.” That’s the difference between now and the Great Financial Crisis. We’re all online, and everyone can reach anyone at a moment’s notice. Adding to the trouble is misinformation, which “is a potentially deadly toxin” when combined with speed, Parmy and Paul note. If people are falling for Pope Francis sporting Balenciaga — a brand that recently was forced to kill an [ad campaign]( showing children holding teddy bears in bondage gear, mind you — what else are they going to fall for? A deepfake video of Jerome Powell on Six Flag’s [Kingda Ka](, screaming “curse the yield curve!!!” as he goes from 0 to 128 miles per hour in 3.5 seconds? Crazier things have happened! Financial institutions might be fundamentally stronger than they were in 2008, but whether they’re strong enough to resist a tidal wave of retweets, shares and views is an entirely different story. [Read the whole thing](. Bonus AI Reading: The rise of AI could change the fundamental logic behind [economic policy](. — Tyler Cowen Press Pause In many ways, 1989 was a seminal year. Taylor Swift was born. Nintendo released the Game Boy. The first-ever episode of The Simpsons aired. And it was also the last time the Fed paused rate hikes amid such concerning core inflation numbers. Now, 34 years later, we find ourselves in a similar-ish pickle: Is it time to pause rate hikes, even with inflation being so high? A lot of people suspect Jerome Powell is [pursuing a pause in the near future](, Jonathan Levin writes. Normally, this would be amazing news for the stock market. Just take one look at the historical returns and you’ll understand why: But, contrary to what my 10th grade AP US history teacher (hey, Mr. Webb!) taught me, history probably won’t repeat itself this time around. “This isn’t a traditional cycle,” Jonathan writes, adding that “unforeseen shocks are chipping away at companies’ earnings foundations.” The [chances of us hitting a recession]( within the next six months has “exploded” this year, Isabelle Lee points out: Even if the Fed follows through with a pause, Allison Schrager argues, that [won’t guarantee lower interest rates](. “The central bank has a strong influence only on short-term interest rates … longer-term rates are arguably more important — they matter for our mortgages and cost of borrowing,” she writes. That will be a major issue for the US government, which enjoys spending money even more than Taylor Swift [fans](. It’s clear that this is no repeat of [past eras]( — it’s something else entirely. Bonus Fed Reading and Listening: - The banking sector turmoil [will spread into other parts of the economy](, and Mohamed A. El-Erian says there’s no easy way to stop the contagion. - SVB’s collapse put [the Fed in the hot seat](. What’s the central bank to do? Timothy L. O'Brien spoke with Paul J. Davies on the latest episode of “[Crash Course](.” How to Escape Meeting Hell Here’s a cute little exercise that might make you want to rip your hair out. Get out a piece of paper and jot down all the meetings you’ve had this week. Once you’ve done that, please rank them in order of most successful to least successful, success being however you want to define it — productivity, resolution, the utter satisfaction of hearing Steve say “you’re right” — as long as that metric stays consistent. Now that you’ve got this list, consider how many people were in each meeting. Are you noticing any patterns? Maybe, just maybe, the more successful meetings fit within the criteria of “[The Social Brain: The Psychology of Successful Groups](,” a new book that Adrian Wooldridge says helps define [the “goldilocks number” for every meeting]( known to man. Here, try it out and see if it works: - Five: “If you need to make decisions fast, as in crisis management or creative development, five is a good number.” - Twelve to fifteen: “If you want to make complex decisions, then 12 to 15 is a better size, since it provides more perspectives.” - Fifty: This is a “good number for an information-sharing meeting if you have a clear leader and a fixed agenda.” To me, this feels like god-level advice. Corporate America is stuck on a never-ending hamster wheel of meetings, most of which are completely pointless not because [Pat is choking on his hot dog in the corner of the conference room]( but because it’s a numbers game. Maybe every meeting you’ve had this week (or your entire life) has been hell on earth because your numbers were off! The next time you find yourself in a PR crisis, please for the love of inbox zero don’t send calendar invites to 3,957 people. Five is clearly all you need! Barb from sales will thank you. Telltale Charts When you think about the pediatric ward of a hospital, maybe you picture root beer-flavored lollipops or wooden toys, not [the rising number of children]( hospitalized for mental health problems and suicide. Lisa Jarvis says we must build “the healthcare capacity to treat kids long before they’re at a point where a parent has nowhere else to turn but an ER or local hospital.” Normally, the longer society has something — computers, flat-screen TVs, [Teslas]( — the cheaper it gets. But extreme weather events? Those things are just getting more and more expensive, and that’s going to cost the businesses that are selling us all that stuff, Mark Gongloff writes. [Climate-proofing Corporate America]( is the only way out. “Simply writing checks was never going to be enough,” is a sentence that could be written about a lot of things. But Bloomberg’s editorial board is talking about Biden’s Chips Act, which they call a “looming failure” that will likely follow America’s terrible track record with building things. No amount of money is going to rip off [the red tape standing in the way]( of the semiconductor industry. Further Reading Breaking up Alibaba [into six pieces]( is a smart and proactive move. — Tim Culpan Elon Musk can’t keep [stiffing Twitter’s landlords]( forever. — Stephen L. Carter [NATO’s free riders]( are ruining it for everyone else. — Andreas Kluth Despite the fragile economy, India’s giving birth to [a new breed of startups](.  — Andy Mukherjee France’s ongoing strikes are proof that [Macron’s pension problem]( is far from solved. — Lionel Laurent It’s tax evasion season, and [Italy’s off-the-books economy]( is staying off the books. — Rachel Sanderson Beyonce is no longer crazy in love [with Adidas](. The shoemaker is taking a lot of Ls lately. — Andrea Felsted Quote of the Day “[Democracy is delicate](. We cannot let debt damage it in the tumult.” — Hakainde Hichilema, president of Zambia ICYMI Mike Pence has to [testify](. [Ivy League]( schools are getting pricier. McKinsey begins a rare [round of job cuts](. SBF was [charged]( with bribing Chinese officials. Russia is [running out of money](. Kickers The [carbonara controversy](. (h/t Mike Nizza) [Your heartbeat]( might replace your passport. Area man donated [way too much sperm](. [Water sommeliers]( are a thing, and they take their job [Very Seriously](. The woolly mammoth resurrection has a [meatball plot twist](. (h/t Mike Smedley) Notes:  Please send [iceberg water]( and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. 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