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Did the Fed make a fourteen-year-long mistake?

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Tue, Nov 22, 2022 09:51 PM

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Plus: The immigration conundrum. Follow Us This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a bloated balance sheet

Plus: The immigration conundrum. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a bloated balance sheet of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [QE might be a mistake](. - America must [solve its immigration problem](. - [Boomerang CEOs]( are a management failure. - [Cranberries]( are getting cheaper. QE Will Never Die Almost exactly 14 years ago, on Nov. 25, 2008, the Fed [announced]( it was going to buy $600 billion in mortgage-related debt to help keep the housing market from wrecking the financial system. Thus the American version of Japan’s “quantitative easing” began. And it never really ended: There’s a whole generation of people working in markets today that has never known a world cushioned by the Fed’s bloated balance sheet, which helps explain why the idea of losing it is so terrifying. But Allison Schrager argues it must end. She surveys the literature and finds [little proof it has helped the economy](, but plenty of evidence of harmful side effects. They’re currently scraping some of that evidence off the walls of the offices of FTX and other crypto high-fliers, along with [the small banks that served them](, as Marc Rubinstein writes. The Fed has tried to get out of QE time and time again. But like Michael Corleone, it kept getting pulled back in. The world is different now, with sky-high inflation forcing the Fed to scramble to retract all its support for the economy, including eventually QE. Will the economy be ready? Will it have a choice?  The Unsolvable Immigration Problem Must Be Solved There’s an ancient conundrum in philosophy and art, of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. Sort of like the uncatchable fox and infallible hound whose stalemate [annoyed Zeus]( so much he turned them into Canis Major and Minor. The modern equivalent of this is [America’s deeply toxic politics around immigration](. The unstoppable force is growing opposition to migrants, which Eduardo Porter writes will certainly outlive even Donald Trump’s political career. It’s a global phenomenon, in fact, with [extreme right-wingers taking power in Sweden]( and reweaving the social fabric in a backlash to a migrant surge, as Adrian Wooldridge notes. The immovable object here is the economic reality that America is running out of workers as its population ages: We’ll increasingly need more people to empty those bedpans and handle many other unpleasant, low-wage tasks. There are millions of migrants eager to come here and do just that, if we’ll let them. Eduardo is optimistic, if that’s the word, that eventually the immovable object will win, forcing even MAGA-Americans to start looking for solutions. But the interim could be painful enough to vex even Zeus. Bonus Extremist Takeover Reading: [Malaysian fundamentalists are taking over]( and putting the economy at risk. — Clara Ferreira Marques Beware the Boomerang CEO Who doesn’t love a surprise return? Steve Jobs parachuting in to rescue Apple. Han Solo pew-pewing in to help Luke at the climax of “Star Wars.” “Stone Cold” Steve Austin bouncing back after being [run over]( by a car to rescue the Rock by hitting Vince McMahon in the face [with a chair]( at Backlash 2000 (trigger warning for a stuntman being hit by a car and many, many people being pretend-hit in the face with a chair). Wall Street is the biggest sucker on Earth for this sort of thing, writes Beth Kowitt. She’s got a whole list of every time a stock has popped when a prodigal CEO has returned to rescue a struggling company. Here’s the thing, though: With the possible exception of Jobs, [all of these represent a management failure]( by the very hero CEOs coming to the rescue. The latest example is Bob Iger returning to Disney to the hosannas of the market. Beth points out Iger is replacing Bob Chapek, who was Bob I.’s hand-picked replacement before Bob I. turned on Bob C. and helped run him out of the Magic Kingdom. Was Bob I.’s judgment bad then, or is it bad now? Big-name CEOs like Iger may have a reality-distortion field that hypnotizes Wall Street. But too often these heroes of business also have a critical weakness: an inability to imagine or plan for a world without them. Read the [whole thing](. Bonus Bad-Business Reading: Amazon has never figured out [a business model for the Echo](. — Parmy Olson Telltale Charts It’s almost Thanksgiving in the US, the blessed time when we gather with friends and family to moan about high grocery prices. Just look at that chart below. Stuffing is up 69%! (Although, come on, people: Stuffing is just [bread and spices](.) Observant readers will observe, however, that [cranberry prices are falling](, at least. David Fickling writes that’s a good sign for the future of all food prices. Give thanks. Further Reading America’s infrastructure plans will never get off the ground if we don’t stop [burying projects in red tape](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The [Trump special prosecutor]( is likely to bring charges. That doesn’t mean they’ll stick. — Noah Feldman [Italy is about to lose Russian oil](, and it has no backup plan. — Julian Lee Moderate [Republicans can have Joe Manchin-like sway]( in a narrowly divided House, if they want it. — Jonathan Bernstein The tripledemic is about to [keep working moms out of the office]( in droves. — Kathryn Edwards [Iran’s soccer team]( crushed the regime’s hopes of a propaganda win. — Bobby Ghosh [Twitter never really helped]( anybody’s career. — Sarah Green Carmichael ICYMI FTX’s lawyer says “[substantial” assets are missing]( or stolen. The Supreme Court let a House panel [get Donald Trump’s tax returns](. President Joe Biden is extending the [student-loan payment pause](. [Cristiano Ronaldo and Manchester United]( consciously uncoupled. Kickers At 10:11 p.m., the time and date will [form a palindrome](. (h/t Mark Gilbert) New [pristine meteorite]( just dropped. Scientists identified an [antibody that neutralizes Zika](. We may have to [dim the sun]( to cool the planet. Notes:  Please send substantial assets and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022

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