Trump, Musk and Twitter are a toxic combination

Plus: Pleasant economic surprises. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a sideshow of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Musk and Trump]( are made for each other. - Maybe we’re reading the [yield curve]( and [housing inflation]( all wrong. - Central banks may be [the future of crypto](. - [COP27 was a bust]( on fossil fuels, and that’s fine. Let the Wrong One In Even if you’re the world’s richest man, overpaying for a social media company by roughly $30 billion and then chasing away your best advertisers might make you a little desperate to recoup some losses. But there’s desperate, and then there’s desperate, which is the kindest way to describe Elon Musk’s efforts to woo Donald Trump back to Twitter. In Musk’s $44 billion sideshow, [Trump is the Elephant Man](, the attraction that will draw all the rubes to the tent, writes Tim O’Brien. So he has posted a barrage of stale, [stolen]( memes to goad The Former Guy to ditch his own, even fail-ier Truth Social and return to his ancestral ranting grounds. And it just might work. Musk’s memes have the musk of truth: Trump won’t long be able to resist the siren song of direct communication with a much bigger audience.  But unlike a sideshow tent, Twitter is free. Many users have already seen more than enough of this particular exhibit and can’t stomach much more. And the true paying customers — advertisers — no longer want to be associated with this Elephant Man’s tendency to [attract Nazi followers and foment armed insurrections](, Parmy Olson notes. Twitter may be “ALIVE,” as Musk puts it, but then so is a meth-fueled biker bar at 3 a.m. It’s a place where Musk and Trump might feel at home (assuming the site [stays functional]( after so many layoffs). The rest of us can find healthier alternatives. Indicators, Schmindicators If you could pick only two indicators to convey just how hosed the US economy is, you could do worse than the yield curve and the “shelter” component of the consumer price index. The first is deeply inverted, meaning long-term bonds pay less interest than short-term ones, an unholy state of affairs that always, always, always portends recession. The shelter index, meanwhile, is the grim opposite of inverted. Together they paint a picture of dreaded stagflation, with the economy tanking even as prices soar. But maybe we’re reading them wrong. Conor Sen points out economic circumstances truly are different this time, with supply chains and labor markets whipsawed by pandemic and war. The [curve’s inversion could just be a sign]( the Fed will cut rates in the near-ish future, not because of a deep recession but because its hiking campaign went far enough. To that point, Justin Fox notes economists have long debated just how useful the CPI shelter component really is as an inflation gauge. Now they’re [eyeballing private-sector measures of rent](, which may be narrower but are also better at detecting shifts in the prevailing winds. And right now, those particular winds look pretty favorable: Bonus Bogus Indicator Reading: [Copper is no longer an economic indicator](; it’s just perpetually bullish now. — Javier Blas Have Fun Staying Poor It’s been nearly two weeks since crypto exchange FTX started melting down, and as of this writing the global financial system remains unbothered. At its height, crypto was big and annoyingly visible, but at no point was it a threat to set all of the money on fire [knocking furiously on wood].  So maybe [this isn’t 2008 all over again](, as Bill Dudley writes. It’s [more like the 2000 dot-com bust](, the tulip-bulb crash, the [Beanie Baby]( Troubles or any of countless other classic bubble-and-spew stories, writes Niall Ferguson. New technology + easy money + the lure of cheap riches + FOMO = this result, again and again. To Bill, history suggests crypto can expect more pain — because nobody’s coming to its rescue — and more hated regulations. To Niall, it suggests some hardy remnant of crypto survives the long winter to become a fixture in our lives, like railroads, the internet and Beanie Babies. But that remnant may not be run by some future Sam Bankman-Fried. Andy Mukherjee writes central banks are hustling to devise [cleaner, safer, more useful alternatives]( to the s***coins that have cost so many people billions in imaginary wealth. This isn’t at all what the crypto bros had in mind. But maybe they should have been more careful. Bonus FTX reading: - There will soon be a way to [short private startups like FTX](, and that’s a good thing. — Chris Bryant - [Keeping track of customers’ crypto]( is no picnic. — Matt Levine Telltale Charts The latest UN climate-change conference, COP27, was disappointing for anybody hoping the world would finally agree to phase out fossil fuels. But David Fickling writes we were [never getting oil-exporting countries to agree]( to such a thing anyway. Meanwhile, the free market is taking care of dirty fuel on its own. One arguably cleaner energy source, [nuclear, has a last chance at a long-awaited comeback](, writes Liam Denning. It will have to overcome the fact that, unlike wind and solar, it hasn’t gotten any cheaper over the years. Further Reading Better data and a stronger health-care workforce can help the US [fight a tripledemic of Covid, flu and RSV](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The timing of [Bob Iger’s return to Disney]( is lucky. He’ll need all the luck he can get. — Chris Bryant [Macron’s visit to America]( can help mend US-European ties. — Lionel Laurent Yale and Harvard are right to [get out of the law-school ranking game](. It’s always been a bad idea. — Stephen Carter China’s economy looks weak on the surface but has [signs of durable strength beneath](. — Anjani Trivedi A year later, it’s clear: [The Nasdaq 100 was in a bubble](. — Jonathan Levin Dems are blowing it by [not raising the debt ceiling now](.— Jonathan Bernstein ICYMI Big Tech layoffs have left [H1B visa holders scrambling](. How many workers are going into the office in New York? [Depends on who’s counting](. [Swedish housing]( is in meltdown mode. A [Beyond Meat plant]( is allegedly beyond gross. Kickers This year’s [ugly Microsoft sweater]( features Clippy. (h/t Scott Kominers) Automation may be [widening wage inequality](. Sheep flocks [achieve collective intelligence](. Orion has [reached the moon](. Notes:  Please send ugly sweaters and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022