Crypto's coffin is not quite nailed shut yet

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an indefatigable dribble through Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Crypto HODLers should prepare [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an indefatigable dribble through Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [Crypto HODLers]( should prepare to admit defeat. - Crypto losers will be defeated in attempts to get [relief from the taxman](. - An early World Cup defeat would be [unwelcome for the UK economy](. - The Fed risks snatching [defeat from the jaws of victory](. Crypto’s Coldest Winter Yet Emoji-approved payments. Unaudited loans. Digital assets gone AWOL. “Every day seems to bring new revelations of bankrupt exchange [FTX’s internal dumpster fire](and its tentacular reach into all corners of the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” notes Lionel Laurent. The incestuous intermingling of crypto assets — [“Turtles all the way down,”](as Lionel put it in a June column, back when FTX was itself bailing out failing platforms and brokers — is starker than ever. Lending platform BlockFi is expected to declare bankruptcy within days; redemptions have been halted at the Winklevoss twins’ Gemini Earn, a product that once offered depositors 8% returns and “an investment in their future selves.” Bitcoin’s decline has halted for now at between $16,000 to $17,000, but that’s 75% down from its peak. Money fleeing the system apace may never return. “Any crypto observer who’s seen booms and busts in the past will know better than to declare it ‘dead,’” warns Lionel. “But this is one very big nail hammered into the coffin.” For investors who’ve lost money in FTX’s collapse and hope to soften the financial blow by taking a tax write-off, Alexis Leondis has further bad news: [They’re unlikely to qualify](. “The tax code specifies that if you want to take a capital loss, you must sell or exchange that asset,” Alexis argues. “Losing access to it because the exchange shuts down is different.” The Beautiful Game Kicks Off Against an Ugly Backdrop The 2022 World Cup kicks off on Sunday, with host Qatar facing Ecuador in the first tournament to be held in the Middle East. More than a million football fans — equivalent to a third of Qatar’s entire population — are expected to pack into the nation’s capital city of Doha. In the 12 years since it secured the rights, [Qatar has spent $300 billion]( building new stadiums and hotels — also costing of the lives of some 6,500 migrant workers, notes Martin Ivens. Qatar’s patchy human rights record and its habit of imprisoning LGBTQ people who engage in consensual sex mean [“Western greed and hypocrisy”]( will be on full display during the competition, Martin argues. “Many of the celebrities, models and sporting types who turn up to be photographed at Gay Pride events and support liberal causes at home are happy to take Qatari money to promote the World Cup.” For the games themselves, a “psychic” alpaca has predicted [England will qualify for the World Cup knockout stages](. Alfie, said to be one of the “smartest and most responsive alpacas” at his petting zoo in Southcombe, Oxfordshire, has forecast the winner of each of the national team’s fixtures. A World Cup victory for England would offer [a huge amount of comfort to the beleaguered UK economy](, argues Andrea Felsted, although the unusual timing of the matches — moved to the Autumn from their usual Summer schedule to avoid the worst of Qatar’s heat — means the boost to retailers will be curbed. There is plenty of scope to be disappointed with both the England team’s performance and the British weather, notes Andrea. “But with the full force of the cost-of-living crisis yet to be unleashed, retailers and hospitality venues will be clutching at any crumbs of comfort.” Bonus British Recession Reading: Hunt’s fiscal repairs [won’t mend the UK economy](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board. Telltale Charts US retail purchases jumped 1.3% in October from the month earlier, the most since February. Control group sales — a less volatile measure excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials stores and gasoline stations — rose 0.7%, more than double what economists were anticipating. Combined with wholesale and consumer inflation slowing and average hourly earnings moderating, we’ve seen an “[almost fairy-tale sequence](of economic data published since the start of the month,” note Jonathan Levin and Leticia Miranda. “The coveted soft landing for the economy may be coming into view,” they write. “But even if the perfect scenario presents itself, that doesn’t preclude policymakers at the Federal Reserve from squandering the opportunity.” Further Reading The UK budget’s silence on housing is unconscionable after [the death of a toddler](. — Therese Raphael Why Nancy Pelosi is [the greatest House speaker]( in US history. — Jonathan Bernstein Pelosi will be [a hard act to follow](, both as speaker and Democratic leader. — Matthew Yglesias [The Elon Musk of climate plans]( goes for a test drive in Indonesia. — David Fickling Giorgia Meloni must resist the temptation of [a state takeover of Telecom Italia](. — Rachel Sanderson Investors in big tech companies are done with [moonshot ‘science projects.’]( — Conor Sen As Levi Strauss CEO, [Michelle Gass gets a second chance at the top](— something few female executives are ever allowed. — Beth Kowitt Is this [the end of copper’s lost decade?]( — Elements by Clara F. Marques ICYMI Qatar is set to [ban the sale of alcohol within World Cup stadiums](, reversing a decision to allow Anheuser-Busch InBev NV to sell Budweiser beer. (But you can have your tipple if you’ve paid for the expensive sky boxes.) [Twitter temporarily closed its offices](, after more workers than expected opted to quit with three months’ severance pay rather than take Elon Musk’s alternative offer of “working long hours at high intensity.” This South American nation [in the crosshairs of climate change]( is getting ready to get rich on … oil. Masayoshi Son is now [personally on the hook for about $4.7 billion](on side deals he set up at SoftBank. Kickers A redesigned London Underground map shows [the cheapest pints of beer near tube stations](. (h/t Marcus Ashworth) An archivist is urging Twitter users to [print out tweets]( and store them in a box, as [#riptwitter trends]( on, errr, Twitter. (h/t Lionel) Notes:  Please send cheap pints and feedback to Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022