Just how close are we to World War III, exactly?

Plus: Sunak's poisoned chalice. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a war game of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The US [risks World War III](. - [Rishi Sunak]( risks a short tenure. - The Fed risks a [financial accident](. - Germany’s economy risks [losing to California’s](. TFW the destruction is mutually assured. Source: YouTube War Games Using mutually assured destruction for nuclear deterrence hinges on the belief that warring humans will do a calm, rational cost-benefit analysis of whether or not to nuke each other to hell and realize this game’s only winning move is [not to play](. One response that might spring to mind is: Dude, have you even seen humans? For roughly as long as we’ve had nuclear weapons, our species has been playing chicken with itself, testing how much conflict we can get away with without triggering Armageddon. We’ve come close at least a couple of times. In 1983, only Soviet officer [Stanislav Petrov]( — a guy who should really have statues around the world — kept us from accidentally dinosauring ourselves by refusing to believe a dodgy early warning system. Where would we be if Petrov had called in sick that day? And of course there’s the Cuban missile crisis, in which Kennedy and Kruschev kept the [Doomsday Clock]( from striking midnight. Max Hastings reminds us Kruschev’s reward was being tossed out of power just a couple of years later. His sin was making the wannabe mighty Soviet Union look small, triggering [Russia’s centuries-old inferiority complex](. That same disorder affects Vladimir Putin today, and he doesn’t seem to have Kruschev’s cooler head. The harder his war-crimes extravaganza in Ukraine fails, the [itchier]( his nuke-trigger finger gets. At the same time, giving in to Putin’s nuclear blackmail would only encourage him to grab more land. It would also inspire other bad actors to get their own nukes. And it can’t be lost on them that Ukraine once agreed to forgo nuclear weapons, only to be invaded shortly thereafter. Gearoid Reidy points out [North Korea, for example, won’t be making such a mistake](. In fact, he argues, it’s high time the US admits the hermit kingdom is already a nuclear state and adjusts its strategy accordingly.  Even as the US plays chicken with Russia in Ukraine, it’s [antagonizing another nuclear-powered rival in China](, notes Niall Ferguson. Carrying on Donald Trump’s new cold war with China may help President Joe Biden keep the US a step ahead of its rival economically and militarily. But it also adds to the growing risk of economic and geopolitical accidents. Rational people won’t always be around to stop them. Too Sunak The funniest outcome of the Tory party’s latest leadership melee — apparently a biannual thing now — would have been for Boris Johnson to return, only to be [ousted]( again by Christmas. Sadly for us jokers, but fortunately for the Tories and for the UK, BoJo dropped out (for now). That left the stage clear for Rishi Sunak to grasp the poisoned chalice. As Adrian Wooldridge writes, unlike the past few British PMs, [Sunak is a competent manager]( despite also having solid Brexit credentials. It doesn’t hurt that he looks sharp in a suit and has an inspiring personal backstory. British bonds [bounced]( on word of his ascension, for good reason. And yet! Because these are still BoJo’s Tories, there is a high risk that calm, controversy-free handling of the UK’s many crises [won’t satisfy half of Sunak’s party](, warns Therese Raphael. They may yet fall in line just to win an election. But if they don’t, Martin Ivens argues, then [they deserve to finally lose to Labour](. Better Off Fed Watching inflation hit eleventy zillion percent despite a series of aggressive Fed rate hikes, you can’t help but wonder: Is the Fed doing it wrong? Hahaha, of course it is. As always, everybody and their grandmother thinks the Fed is doing it wrong; they just differ on the flavor of wrongness. Bill Dudley, for example, writes the [Fed is still going too soft on inflation](. It needs to start warning us now of much, much higher interest rates than it currently envisions, or else people won’t take it seriously, he argues. But with five rate hikes already this year, including three of the biggest on record — and another of that size coming next month — the Fed risks [breaking something in the financial system](, Mohamed El-Erian warns. Its failure to respond quickly enough to inflation has made it play catch-up. But at some point it might want to stop hammering the economy for a bit, just to assess the damage. The Bank of England’s struggles to end quantitative easing show [how much trouble a central bank can cause]( by tightening too much at once, Marcus Ashworth writes. Two wrongs … uh, make more wrongs, or something. Telltale Charts Despite rumors of being despised by businesspeople, taxpayers and nature, [California’s economy is about to overtake Germany’s]( as the fourth-largest in the world, writes Matt Winkler. [Credit Suisse has plenty of ways to raise cash]( without selling more stock, writes Paul Davies. With kids back in school, maskless and swapping germs, [RSV](, a virus that causes bronchiolitis, is surging again, charts Jessica Karl. Also, get your [flu shot](, ya turkey. Further Reading Xi [Jinping is surrounded by his own people]( now, but he’s making their jobs impossible. — Shuli Ren Elon [Musk may buy Twitter]( this week. Or not. — Matt Levine Mark [Zuckerberg’s obsession with the metaverse]( is distracting him from the nonsense still proliferating on his site. — Parmy Olson [Biden has hurt](, not helped, the economy. — Allison Schrager We need [better cancer screening](, but it’s expensive. — Faye Flam Hans [Niemann’s $100 million chess lawsuit]( may already be checkmated. — Stephen Carter ICYMI Landlords may have [maxed out on rent hikes](. Markets have [had just about enough of Xi](. Brands have [had just about enough of Ye](. Kickers Paleontologists discover a [new dinosaur species]( … in a museum. (h/t Scott Kominers) New chip can [transmit all the internet traffic]( in one second. Video games get [medieval pigs all wrong](. A brief, 120-million-year history of the [oldest tree genus](, the Gingko. Notes:  Please send medieval pigs and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. 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