Welcome to the sad Dunkin’ Rewards economy

Plus: Diesel is scarce. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a rewards program for Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - The [Spirit Airline-ification of the economy]( has arrived. - [America’s diesel disaster]( is unfolding. - [Italy]( might be repeating the [mistakes of the UK](. - Goldman’s David Solomon keeps [turning the tables](. America Does Not Run on Dunkin’ The preferred coffee chain of people who call sprinkles “jimmies” has made a terrible decision: The evils of inflation are clearly haunting Dunkin’, which recently turned its ultra-successful [“DD Perks” program into the wet blanket that is “Dunkin’ Rewards.](” Nothing could have prepared the chain for the resulting wrath. Strawberry frosting lovers [swarmed Reddit](to complain about the loss of their beloved free birthday drink, [saying Dunks]( is “pretty much begging for less business.” It’s not just Dunkin’. Companies are scrimping on everything from [401K match]( programs to [paid sick leave policies](. Corporate America is slowly morphing into one giant version of Spirit Airlines, to the detriment of workers and consumers. Even as profit margins shrink, Jonathan Levin writes “[a consumer rebellion against inflation is brewing](.” He spoke to Morning Consult’s Scott Brave — a retail weatherman of sorts — about the storm clouds ahead. Already, we can tell more shoppers are hunting for bargains or skipping purchases altogether: To fight inflation from growing deeper roots, the Fed has been raising rates for six months, [with little to show for it yet](. Allison Schrager assures us this is normal and that these things take time. People say a watched pot never boils, and Wall Street is one big coven of pot watchers: We still don’t know what, exactly, is in this pot. It could be an inflation wedding soup. Or maybe it’s a recession ribollita. What’s tricky is that both [are self-fulfilling prophecies](: If people expect higher prices, then they’ll want higher wages to buy stuff. If they think a recession is coming, then they’ll hold off on buying stuff entirely. At the moment, consumers don’t know what to expect. But they may soon have far bigger things to mourn than the loss of their Dunkin’ rewards. Bonus Recession Raincloud Reading: - [Microsoft is the latest Big Tech]( company to lay people off. It won’t be the last. — Parmy Olson - What economic clouds? [The private jet business]( sees nothing but blue skies ahead. — Thomas Black America Runs on Dunkin’ Diesel Sadly, confidence isn’t the only thing running low in this country. Javier Blas writes [American stockpiles of diesel fuel haven’t been this low]( since Harry S. Truman was squatting in the Oval Office: Diesel is the lifeblood of the US economy, feeding everything from trains to tractor trailers. A shortage will cause all sorts of inflation-y problems, from rising freight costs to shipment delays. Current President Joe Biden has a limited set of possible responses, Javier writes, none of which are politically palatable. Nurses, those minders of America’s literal lifeblood, are also in short supply, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes. [Young nurses are quitting, and older ones are retiring](. This problem wasn’t born in the pandemic, but it was certainly exacerbated by it. Nurses have spent the past two-plus years in an endless Covid continuum, with only [TikTok dances]( as inadequate relief. Contracted “travel nurses” [actually manage to make a living wage](, but that system has big drawbacks. They could be solved by simply enticing more young people to become nurses. Europe Runs on Conservative Chaos The one thing the world doesn’t seem to lack is new conservative leaders willing to gamble away entire economies. First up we have [Liz Truss, whose epic fall from grace]( should be a cautionary tale for anyone thinking they can launch a supply-side revolution amid record-high inflation. In just weeks, she has lost everything from her chancellor to her entire economic roadmap. Now her very job “is on life support,” Therese Raphael writes. Over in Italy, the freshly appointed [Giorgia Meloni faces her own challenges](. Her right-wing coalition is already falling apart, and she is flirting with some of the same kind of market-unfriendly economic gambles that derailed Truss, Rachel Sanderson says. With Italy’s sovereign debt already more loaded than your Nonna’s lasagna, Meroni seems doomed not to learn from Truss’s mistakes. Bonus British Reading: The Bank of England [can’t afford to scare markets like this](. – Marcus Ashworth Telltale Charts Since becoming CEO in 2018, Goldman Sachs CEO/DJ David Solomon has tried to do less of the volatile, Goldman-y, investment-bank stuff and more of the reliable, steady income stuff investors appreciate. Yet his [vision hasn’t exactly gelled](, Paul J. Davies writes, which is why [the bank is restructuring again](. But it will take more than a simple rebrand to move the needle on the stock price. [China’s Covid Zero strategy has been a nightmare]( for the global economy, John Authers writes. It’s highly unlikely Xi Jinping will end the policy overnight. But Beijing needs to start easing its foot off the lockdown brakes, so normal-ish life can resume with minimal disruption. Further Reading I guess it’s time to add [“reverse meme stock”]( to the dictionary. — Matt Levine [China’s missing GDP report]( is not a good look.  — Daniel Moss [Tulsi Gabbard]( says a lot about the state of American politics. — Jonathan Bernstein A survival guide for [how to live on less water](. — Sarah Green Carmichael Banks are knee-deep in [excess deposits](. — Marc Rubinstein ICYMI Russia is causing [blackouts in Ukraine](. Witness the marvelous rise and fall of [the Covid billionaire curve](: [Airbnb is taking over]( Great Britain. (h/t Lara Williams) Kickers Guess which NBA team has [the most expensive beer](. Texas has some [sexual ghosts](. Covid gave us [60 million hours back](. Some people are actually [mosquito magnets](. Notes:  Please send expensive beer and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? 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