The cost of Putin's Ukraine escalation is already clear

A country with one of the world’s largest populations and the biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons is mired in a hopeless war. What happens [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( A country with one of the world’s largest populations and the biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons is mired in a hopeless war. What happens next? Source: AFP via Getty Images We found out the answer to that question last week, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a call-up of reservists. Airfares for those trying to flee spiked massively: It turns out that people who mostly just want to earn a better life for themselves and their families aren’t necessarily willing to lay their lives on the line in order to bring down something as abstract as the “globalist West.” The fact that ordinary Russian people are making their escape says something about the holes in Putin’s regime. Leonid Bershidsky notes a [stark contrast between Putin’s Russia and dictatorships of the recent past](. After riling up ideological hatred, Benito Mussolini and Adolf Hitler had no problems finding hundreds of thousands of volunteers for their campaigns. In comparison, men are lured into Russia’s volunteer battalions with stable salaries rather than patriotic notions. Perhaps that’s because, [as well as being far from hating Ukrainians](, most Russians value economic growth as the country’s most important goal. The mobilization — the first in Russia since World War II — comes after a [series of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives](. Putin, no doubt, intends this to be a show of strength and a major escalation. Instead, it’s a clear sign that he and his invasion are in trouble, and he knows it. Bloomberg’s editorial board writes that, for the last seven months, Russians were told that the “special military operation” would be swift and painless — nothing to concern themselves with. [The order effectively is an admission that the Kremlin’s story was a fairy tale](. The military question is now whether the 300,000 reservists will make a significant difference in the war. Admiral James Stavridis has doubts. The onus for recruitment has been placed on various governors of Russian regions, suggesting that there’s no broad, structured reserve for the military to turn to. That’s [before the “Herculean” effort to provide them with uniforms, training, qualified leaders and effective equipment](. It’ll be months before they’ll arrive on the battlefield as — in the admiral’s words — cannon fodder. That brings us to the other notable part of Putin’s call-up speech: the not-very-veiled nuclear threat. Would he really go that far? There are plenty of reasons to suggest that he wouldn’t. A tactical nuclear strike wouldn’t do much to advance his war effort; holding freshly nuked territory isn’t an attractive proposition; and fallout might blow back into Russia. Yet Hal Brands believes [it’d be wise to take the threat seriously](. Using a nuke might not actually backfire: Those desperate to end the fighting immediately may be willing to make concessions to Putin. Retaliating with nuclear strikes risks an escalatory spiral. Plus, as Leonid noted in [a Twitter Space]( with Clara Ferreira Marques and Bobby Ghosh on Thursday: “If [Putin] loses, he’s finished and it’s not going to be very nice for him.” At this point, Putin may be willing to do anything to ensure survival. All these things are no doubt weighing on US President Joe Biden’s mind right now. No one rational would envy the decisions he’ll have to make in the coming weeks and months. [Just take a quick glance at this decision tree](, concocted by Andreas Kluth and simplified into a graphic by me: None of Biden’s options look particularly great — each comes with its own set of risks that could potentially spiral into Armageddon. But there is one possibility that might work. Andreas has a theory that Putin doesn’t want to go nuclear but will do so in order to survive. Biden could make plans for regime change in the event of nuclear escalation, then make sure to communicate that clearly and privately to him. Clive Crook has a different idea: [Give Putin an off-ramp](. Though that concept may strike some as repugnant, Clive believes it’s not worth the risk of mass death and destruction. What’s needed now, perhaps, is a settlement that allows Putin to twist a defeat into a victory he can sell to Russia. It’s not clear what method of de-escalation would lead to the best outcome. But there is one thing for certain: The world is, once again, in a very sobering situation. Even if Putin is bluffing, his threats are a reminder that the world isn’t truly safe as long as nuclear weapons lie in wait. More Russia Reads: - Germany has taken control of Russia’s stake in key oil refineries. Julian Lee thinks that [Italy needs to do the same](. - Can the world’s wealthiest countries [reduce Moscow’s revenue while keeping crude flowing]( into global markets? Bloomberg’s editorial board says yes. More Data From Bloomberg Opinion The markets absolutely [hated UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget](. Mark Gilbert digs deep into why. [Air is leaking out of the pandemic bicycle bubble](, but Chris Bryant thinks the future looks bright. Conor Sen introduces us to [the new housing winners and losers](. Notes: To contact the author of this newsletter, email Lara Williams at lwilliams218@bloomberg.net. This is the Theme of the Week edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a digest of our top commentary published every Sunday. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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