Housing may be in trouble, but it’s not in crisis

Plus: Liz Truss, on the other hand ... [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a dodgy boiler of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Housing [probably won’t cause a crisis]( again. - Liz Truss is at [high risk of failure](. - Toilet paper is [becoming a problem again](. - We will soon have the [supply chain to fight global warming](. Apocalypse Nah One of the most painful but valuable lessons of growing up is learning that sometimes bad things can happen without it being the end of the world. For example, when I was a new homeowner I used to eye the boiler like a ticking bomb, thinking, “When this thing goes, we’re probably gonna have to eat one of the children.” But then one freezing day in February, the boiler finally croaked, and … it was fine. We just dealt with it. No children were eaten. Yet. Today’s housing market is a little like that. The Fed’s efforts to strangle the inflation out of the economy have boosted mortgage rates and dented home sales. For those of us who have survived two decades of perpetual crisis, including one in housing, this can feel like another one waiting to blow. But a mature look at the situation suggests [it can be handled without a crisis happening](, writes Jared Dillian. Consumers and banks aren’t nearly as leveraged as they were in 2008, and there’s no mortgage-based Rube Goldberg device of financial destruction waiting to turn a little softness in the housing market into the breaking of the Seventh Seal. It won’t be great, but there’s a good chance nobody will need to be eaten. Truss Fall Exercise Prime minister of the UK, like president of the US, is one of those jobs that sounds cool in theory but is a flaming nightmare to actually do. New UK PM Liz Truss [walks into the job with a list of problems]( that would make Hercules nostalgic for the Augean stables, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board. She’s got an energy crisis, soaring inflation, labor unrest and a crumbling NHS, to name a few. Adding insult to injury, people don’t really like her much. Markets are naturally [betting heavily against her succeeding](, notes John Authers. Though they are almost certainly right, there is an opportunity for a brave punter to make a bundle on a near-miraculous positive outcome. To be sure, Truss’s stimulus plan [could help the UK dodge a recession](, note Therese Raphael and Dan Hanson. But it could come at a heavy cost, driving up interest rates and making markets even more punishing. Congrats on the new gig! Another Year, Another TP Crisis Is [nostalgia]( for March 2020 still a thing? If so, then boy has Javier Blas got good news for you: [Toilet paper is in crisis again](. In Europe, at least, high energy prices are affecting commodities of all kinds, including pulp for TP: Shelves aren’t empty yet, but beware: Your pricey toilet-paper roll could be empty sooner than you think, thanks to shrinkflation. And this is another sign that, despite central bankers’ best efforts, inflation still hasn’t been, uh, flushed from the system. Bonus European Price Nightmare Reading: If the [ECB gets too hawkish](, it could trigger a debt crisis. — Marcus Ashworth  Telltale Charts Finally, some good news: Enough [solar-panel capacity is being built right now]( to help the world avert the worst global warming, David Fickling writes. Markets may want to get bullish soon, but if they get too carried away, they’ll [loosen financial conditions]( and compel the Fed to raise rates even more, warns Jonathan Levin. Further Reading [Credit Suisse wants to ditch investment banking](, but it’s expensive and complicated to back out. — Marc Rubinstein  Turkish appliance maker Arcelik shows how [companies can profit by doing good](. — Adrian Wooldridge A [bad ruling by a “Donald Trump judge](” could spark a backlash. — Jonathan Bernstein Know Your Meme has turned into [a meme-studying service for businesses](. — Trung Phan Elon [Musk doesn’t appear to understand]( how mergers work. — Matt Levine [Apple’s new watch]( is a lure for wealthy endurance athletes. — Tim Culpan ICYMI A Texas judge once [again took aim at Obamacare](. A text alert might have [prevented California blackouts](. Kim [Kardashian is in private equity]( now. Kickers America is not good at [keeping its people alive](. Scientists are trying to decode [the languages of rats and whales](. Scientists are trying to [extract hydrogen right from the air](. A lost branch of the Nile [helped build the Pyramids](. Notes:  Please send hydrogen and feedback to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022