We shouldn’t be afraid to prosecute Trump

Plus: The landing looks softer. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a hornet’s nest of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Bringing [Trump to justice]( will be messy. - But it doesn’t have to [mean civil war](. - The yield curve [may be a bad signal](. - The [UK economy is a disaster](. Raid in the Shade It’s easy enough to say stuff like “Let justice be done though the heavens fall,” as famous [lawyers]( from William Prynne to Saul Goodman are always doing. It’s not so easy when the business end of that justice is pointed at a former president of the United States, especially one whose followers have an annoying tendency to try to violently overthrow the government. America’s top Justice-Doer Merrick Garland yesterday sent FBI agents to the Mar-a-Lago home of Donald Trump, reportedly looking for top-secret documents he “accidentally” carried out of the White House when he was boxing up his desk tchotchkes and the one good US government stapler. Trump fans responded with grace and equanimity. Ha ha, no. They suggested the raid was worse than [Pearl Harbor]( and threatened to revive the [nullification crisis]( over it. The GOP overnight became the party of [defunding]( the police. In terms of blowback risk, what Garland has done here is the equivalent of stripping down to his birthday suit, slathering himself head to toe in honey and wailing on a hornet’s nest like a piñata. The angry buzzing has only just begun. Bloomberg’s editorial board suggests he hurry up and [lay out for the public exactly what is going on](, before a million wild conspiracy theories have time to bloom in those MAGA brains. And the reward may not match the risk. Noah Feldman suggests [actually bringing Trump to justice]( for document-retention crimes will be difficult. An unpleasant visit from the FBI may be all the justice Trump is ever forced to experience. Then again, Merrick Garland is infamous for not taking undue risks. Legal experts agree the evidence leading to the raid must have been truly [compelling]( to convince Garland and a federal judge to sign off on it. We are, after all, talking about Donald “Plumber’s Dream” Trump, whose MO is stuffing [toilets]( full of sensitive documents. Tim O’Brien reminds us [Trump is also under investigation for many other](, even more serious crimes, including inciting the aforementioned attempted overthrow of the government. It would be far more corrosive to the republic to not hold a president fully accountable for such behavior. And Bobby Ghosh points out the [US is actually far behind many other developed democracies]( when it comes to blasting heads of state with the cleansing firehose of justice. France, Israel, South Korea and many more have prosecuted former leaders without triggering civil wars or really even putting a scratch in democracy. The heavens may not be as wobbly as they seem. Bonus Political Reading: Meet the kinda-Democrat [trying to oust Lauren Boebert](. — Julianna Goldman Landing Me Softly As everyone knows by now, whenever the “yield curve” — the difference between short- and long-term Treasury yields — “inverts” — turns upside down — then a “recession” — that thing where your neighbor loses her job, not to be confused with a “depression,” which is when you lose your job — inevitably follows. Or not. Up until a week or so ago, a recession seemed inevitable, with the Fed jacking up interest rates to fight inflation and GDP shrinking for two straight quarters. Since then, Robert Burgess notes, we’ve gotten a blockbuster jobs report and several strong readings on stuff like factory orders and latte sales. “It’s different this time” are famous last words for economy-watchers. But between the pandemic, the Ukraine war, the Earth [spinning]( faster than ever and other freakish phenomena, the [yield curve’s signal might truly be different this time](, Bob writes. Notably, the factory sector, which doesn’t get nearly as much media attention as your neighborhood gas station, [just can’t seem to stop booming](, writes Thomas Black. Even those pandemic supply-chain headaches could be helping now, by preventing the sort of overcapacity that leads to cyclical downturns. Manufacturing is a much smaller part of the economy than it once was, but it could still be enough of an engine to tow the rest of the economy along.  Further Economics Reading: - There’s a soft-landing case if the [Fed can lower job vacancies]( without causing unemployment. — John Authers - [Higher minimum wages hurt low-wage workers]( over the long term. — Eduardo Porter Telltale Charts Boris Johnson’s potential replacements aren’t spending much time discussing [the UK’s many economic nightmares](, as recently spelled out by the Bank of England, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board. But then [markets are ignoring the BOE](, too, Marcus Ashworth writes, figuring the next PM will flood the economy with stimulus anyway. Also, predictions are hard. Further Reading In the quest for rich people’s money, [hedge funds are getting trounced by private equity](, and deservedly so. — Shuli Ren Hong Kong’s pointless, Beijing-influenced Covid restrictions are [keeping the island a ghost town for visitors](. — Matthew Brooker The bright side of [Marc Andreessen’s NIMBY hypocrisy]( is that California housing reforms are working. — Virginia Postrel The Breonna Taylor case is a reminder [cops are bad shots](. Spending more on weapons training would keep us all safer. — Stephen Carter Fewer people are [doing “challenge” travel these days](. — Tyler Cowen Wall Street is still not doing enough to [help women overcome financial inequality]( in retirement. — Alexis Leondis ICYMI Trump also [lost a court battle]( over his tax returns. He also [lost a fight to Omarosa](. Russia is having a [hard time finding weapons](. [Blackouts are coming]( to the UK. Suddenly the US has [lots of houses for sale](. Kickers The Loch Ness monster [might be a giant eel](. The human brain is a [perpetual prediction machine](. There’s a [lot more to nothingness]( than you think. At the quantum level, [reality is anything but solid](. Notes: Please send nothing and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022