A $470 billion meme stock happened by accident

Plus: A soft landing is possible. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a brightest candle of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - There’s a [new meme stonk in town](. - The landing [might yet be soft](. - Ukrainian wheat [must navigate a minefield](. - OPEC’s [output hike is insulting](. Stonk If You’re Lonely Tonight One of my least-favorite strains of market writing is the “Markets Are Obviously Big Stupid Idiots Because They’re [Doing Thing]” column. Maybe because I have written so many of them myself, I understand it’s a cheap way to look smart. Get it right and you’re [Michael Burry]( or Nouriel Roubini forever. Get it wrong and nobody remembers, except maybe you, on those dark nights of the soul when you’re staring bleakly into the mirror, realizing you are a fraud who has no business telling other people how to invest money and should have gone to law school like your parents wanted you to do all along. Ahem. Anyway. I instinctively distrust these takes because, sure, markets are fallible and often dumb, but just how often do you truly think you, the pampered protagonist of reality, are actually smarter than a gazillion people making decisions with real money? But then you see stories like AMTD Digital Inc. stock rising 14,000%, making the teensy Hong Kong fintech company briefly more valuable than JP Freaking Morgan, and you start to wonder afresh if the markets en masse are not, in fact, the brightest candles on the cake. Because, as Matthew Brooker writes, the ludicrous [AMTD phenomenon does not appear to be another case]( of bored/angry Redditors finding a new plaything with which to punish the shorts. Ridiculous as that trend was, it was at least understandable. Using Occam’s razor, it appears the likeliest explanation in this case is that some traders confused AMTD’s ticker symbol, “HKD,” with the Hong Kong dollar, which informed readers may recognize as a major economy’s currency with infinity times more liquidity than AMTD stock. It’s also possible people confused AMTD for AMD, short for Advanced Micro Devices, a far more profitable and, again, liquid investment. Such mistakes, Matthew notes, happen [all the time](. Just ask Zoom Technologies, Clubhouse Media and Signal Advance, to name a few recent examples. Meanwhile, Nir Kaissar writes about the [depressing rise of single-stock ETFs](, the main value of which is that they help retail investors destroy their wealth much more efficiently. Nir warns investors there is no reward, and nearly bottomless risk, to using such devices to lever up and short stocks just like the big kids do. Will investors listen? Of course not, and that’s what the ETF slingers are counting on. In conclusion, maybe I’m not such a fraud after all. (I am.) Everything Slightly Less Awful Time for a quick terribleness update: Things are still terrible. There’s war in Europe and shortages in everything, the Fed is jacking up interest rates, and “[Batgirl](” has been eighty-sixed. The likeliest prediction for the future of the US and global economy is, in the words of [Clubber Lang](, “Pain.” And yet! Financial markets are starting to [price in]( a real possibility that deep pain will be avoided. JPMorgan’s stock-based odds of a recession have plunged to just 51% from 91% in June: Please feel free to ignore what Treasuries and base metals have done in that chart, along with the possibility that markets are once again being Big Stupid Idiots (see above), and just hear me out: What if the two dinky little declines in quarterly GDP we just experienced were the whole recession? Jared Dillian suggests [the odds are rising that the Fed has managed]( the seemingly impossible feat of fighting inflation while only gently damaging the economy. Probably not? But stranger things have happened, especially in the past two years. Bonus Economic Reading: - We could [bribe homeowners to raise housing density]( and solve our housing crisis, but we can’t afford the tab. — Eduardo Porter - A brief [history of the recession-spotting NBER](. — Justin Fox Navigating a Minefield At least one key global shortage could soon be addressed, if Ukraine can finally get its huge stockpile of wheat to market. It just has to make sure the stuff doesn’t end up on the bottom of the Black Sea. James Stavridis notes the waters around Odesa and other key Ukrainian ports are [probably lousy with mines](, many of them placed by Ukraine to keep the Russians out. Avoiding them will be harrowing and may end up requiring help from allies. Meanwhile, Andreas Kluth writes, [Kosovo and Serbia may be about to throw a miniature version]( of the Ukraine war, over license plates. What a time to be alive. Telltale Charts President Joe Biden’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia possibly gave him [Covid](, forced him to fist-bump MBS, and didn’t even end up producing that much extra oil: The [hike agreed by OPEC+ yesterday is insultingly tiny](, writes Julian Lee. It is possible the fossil-fuel supergroup is already pumping all it can. Even Russia’s post-sanctions surge in oil exports is fading: Russia will also soon be exporting less (meaning possibly “zero”) natural gas to Europe. The good news, Javier Blas writes, is that German factories can switch to diesel and other fuel instead. The bad news is [this will make diesel even scarcer]( and expensive-er. Further Reading The US should ramp up diplomacy with China while also [ramping up Taiwan’s defenses](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Other [central banks should be as brutally honest]( as the Bank of England was today. — Mohamed El-Erian Joe [Manchin has been hoodwinked]( by his fellow Democrats. — Ramesh Ponnuru The [dark side of China throwing money at its tech]( industry is waste and corruption. The US should pay heed. — Shuli Ren AI’s snapshot of 200 million proteins will [make drug discovery easier](. — Lisa Jarvis ICYMI Monkeypox is now [officially an emergency](. Missing: [$500 million in copper](. Brittney [Griner was sentenced]( to nine years in a Russian prison. Attorney ineptitude wasn't enough to [get Alex Jones a mistrial](. Kickers For sale: real [NYC subway station signs](. (h/t Jessica Karl) [Black holes are officially stable](, according to math. Not stable: the [number of Google Meets]( in the universe. Why the [human brain is so efficient](. Notes: Please send copper and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022