Stagflation is sexy. It may also be unlikely.

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a pulsating petri dish of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda Stagflation fears may b [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a pulsating petri dish of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Stagflation fears [may be overdone](. - Inflation targeting is [the wrong policy]( for central banks. - [How to keep US babies fed.]( - The [TikTok-ification]( of social media platforms. Not Your Grandfather’s Recession Since the beginning of 2020, the number of headlines featuring the word “recession” from 150,000 news sources on the Bloomberg terminal has increased by 345%. With consumer prices roaring ahead, stagflation is imminent, right? Wrong, argues Matt Winkler. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg put the chances of a US recession at 30%. While that’s doubled since the end of January, it’s “not historically remarkable,” says Matt. Dan Moss sees policy makers torn between [“fighting the devil in front of them,”](namely inflation, versus tackling “the goblin lurking around the corner” in the shape of slower growth. The coming debate will be about how much and for how long interest rates should be raised: “A pause in rate increases later this year or next isn’t implausible,” Dan argues. For Richard Cookson, the current monetary-policy predicament is evidence of [the shortcomings of inflation targeting,](as well as the flaws of forward guidance. Central bankers “should ditch the idea that their actions should be predictable and transparent, since both encourage leverage and risk taking,” Richard says. Matt argues that several warning signs that typically augur recession, including an increase in the deficit-to-GDP ratio and a surge in borrowing costs for states and companies, are absent from the current backdrop. “It’s always more interesting to talk about the risk scenario, especially when the risk scenario is kind of sexy like a recession, rather than a base case of everything being OK,” as Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik reminds Matt. Solving the US Baby-Food Crisis There’s a thriving black market in the US for European infant formula. It has higher nutritional standards and healthier ingredients than domestic products, but can’t be sold legally because its producers aren’t overseen by the US Food and Drug Administration. In February, one-third of US infant food products became unavailable after Abbot Laboratories recalled some brands and shuttered a factory to investigate possible contamination. The American system, argues Amanda Little, [is broken.]( The government needs to “build a strategy to protect infant health while creating the conditions necessary for new players in the industry to succeed,” Amanda says. Licensing foreign-made formula for sale in the US is one step; another is requiring any domestic producer with a market share exceeding 20% to stockpile supplies in case of product recalls. Increasing the quality and supply of baby formula “will take a substantially funded, better-staffed and more nimble FDA,” she says. Social Media Copycats Short-form video is the hottest thing on the internet right now, and the market leader in monetizing the format is TikTok. The platform, owned by Beijing-based Byte Dance Ltd., has more than 1 billion active users of its AI-curated content. Its success is compelling competitors to copy its formula. But imitation is proving hard, Parmy Olson discovered [in a conversation](with social-media consultant and industry analyst Matt Navarra. Facebook-owned Meta Platforms Inc., for example, has spent years delivering content to its users based on their social networks, and is now shifting to letting algorithms decide what people might like. Parmy argues that the pivot to video will make content moderation much more difficult, because it’s harder for computers to scan moving images for nasty content than text. Matt reckons that users will remain stuck in their silos and resistant to alternative viewpoints. “It’s one of those problems that social media is never really going to solve,” he says. Telltale Charts This year has been terrible for investors and consumers alike. [“Do not expect it to get better in the short term,”]( argues Niall Ferguson. Further Reading The UK’s [cost-of-living crisis](is petrifying tenants. — Marcus Ashworth Here’s a way to [wean India off its dependence on Russian weapons.](— Mihir Sharma Biden is [missing an opportunity](to put pressure on Iran. — Bobby Ghosh America needs a better plan to pay [reparations for slavery.]( — A. Kirsten Mullen Sterling’s collapse means private equity can [lap up British businesses]( again. — Chris Hughes ICYMI To save humanity, [listen to the microbes.]( A top money-maker in the City of London is … [a traffic camera.]( Tesla is [no longer the top stock](in Cathie Wood’s flagship fund. Kickers Not now, [monkeypox virus.]( A 71-year old writer who penned a piece titled “How To Murder Your Husband” is on trial in the US for ... [murdering her husband.]( A £48,000 hotel ($60,000), and tea with the corgis: Bloomberg’s [Great British Jubilee Guide.]( At $142 million, this is now [the most expensive car in the world](: Notes: Please send Jubilee gig tickets and complaints to Mark Gilbert at magilbert@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022