China’s economic slowdown is everybody’s problem

Plus: Everybody hates bonds now. Time to buy? [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a mini-recession of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - China is threatening to [drag down the global economy](. - Business leaders [obsess too much over data](. - We need a better [presidential line of succession](. - [Everybody hates bonds]( now. China’s Sadness Exports Are Booming A little-remembered episode in our recent economic history is the mini-recession that happened between 2015-2016. It slammed the farming and factory sectors, filling America’s heartland with angry voters and arguably making Donald Trump a surprise president. That event had its roots in a sharp economic slowdown in China and a collapse of the yuan’s value. Say, that gives me an idea: Why don’t I take a big old swig of coffee from my “Everything’s Fine in China Now” mug and check the value of the yuan today: Now that I have toweled off my monitor, keyboard and dog, let me type: Yikes. As John Authers notes, the [yuan is once again plunging](, partly because China is once again deliberately slowing its own economy at the same time the Federal Reserve is getting ready to raise interest rates, a thing that makes the dollar more valuable. In 2015 Beijing was trying to pop property bubbles. In 2022 it’s trying to pop Covid’s bubble with mass [lockdowns](. The resulting downturn will have global repercussions, which might help explain why U.S. stocks inspired traders to do a lot of [coffee-spraying]( today. China’s [Generation Z is now in the unusual situation](, for that country, of beginning its working life in the middle of what could be a lasting economic slump, writes Shuli Ren. And this cohort no longer has demographics or runaway growth potential on its side. No wonder so many Chinese kids these days are “lying flat.” On the upside, Elon Musk’s ownership of Twitter will [give Beijing more leverage over that key social-media outlet](, write Matthew Brooker and Tim Culpan. Tough to see how that creates jobs, though. The U.S. economy is for now in better shape than China’s, if only because Americans have decided Covid is no longer a thing. But industrial [companies sound increasingly down]( on the economy these days, writes Brooke Sutherland. If we’ve learned anything over the past six years or so, it’s that when China gets sick we all end up under the weather. Too Much Information America’s companies are generally not run by dumb people. In fact, most of our corporate leaders have pieces of paper declaring them to be masters of business administration. And yet somehow you could fill several books with case studies of businesses that have not been administrationed well at all. The problem, writes Roger L. Martin, is that MBAs are [taught to obsess too much over data](, at the expense of paying attention to stories. Keeping their noses buried in spreadsheets often causes them to miss the big-picture issues wrecking their companies. Maybe my liberal arts degree wasn’t so useless after all! (It was.) Too much data is also a big problem for scientists. They’re drowning in the stuff, making it far too easy to find dubious correlations [they present to the public as bad science](, writes econ professor Gary Smith. Women who eat cereal for breakfast give birth to boys more often! Paperboard prices predict crypto prices! These and other such findings have been presented as real science, until other scientists couldn’t replicate them. This is hilarious, except it’s also shaking faith in real science. Bonus Bad-Science Reading: The WHO’s [long refusal to admit Covid is airborne]( is still causing confusion and problems. — Faye Flam Survivor: Presidential Edition Speaking of Covid, we found out today that Vice President Kamala Harris [has it](. She has no symptoms, thank goodness, so we don’t have to worry about who will fulfill all those key vice presidential [duties](. But it is a good time to worry about what might happen if, God forbid, both the president and vice president were incapacitated. The current line of succession would give us President Nancy Pelosi. And if she were unavailable, then it’d be President Patrick Leahy, only because he’s the current holder of the Senate Iron Man award. But having lawmakers at the top of the stack makes a [mockery of the separation of powers]( our system considers so important, writes Jonathan Bernstein. It’s long past time Congress reforms it. Telltale Charts Bond market [sentiment is just about as sour as it has ever been](, writes Jared Dillian. I wonder if this has ever been a decent contrarian indicator? Companies [slacked off on ESG disclosures]( during the pandemic, writes Chris Hughes. Less news in this case is probably not good news. Further Reading [Finland and Sweden would bolster NATO](, and any potential Russian tantrum can be managed. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Here’s how [Musk’s Twitter deal could still go wrong](. — Matt Levine Everybody should [want crypto regulation to start now](, before something bad happens and the crackdown is worse for all. — Bill Dudley Young people [getting addicted to trading crypto]( is how they learn. — Aaron Brown [Europe’s banks will benefit from higher rates](, but only up to a point. — Paul Davies President Joe [Biden should embrace Joe Manchin’s efforts]( to reach an energy compromise. — Karl Smith ICYMI Russia is [halting gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria](. Tesla stock could [lose $100 billion today](. More than half of Americans [may have had Covid](. Kickers A miniature version of “[Washington Crossing the Delaware](” is up for auction. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Russia’s master spies apparently [can’t tell the difference]( between “The Sims” and SIM cards. (h/t Scott Kominers) Area male spiders learn gymnastics to [avoid being eaten after sex](. (h/t Alistair Lowe) Ancient tablet lists 3,200-year-old [Egyptian excuses for missing work](. Notes: Please send work excuses and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. 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