China may be learning the wrong lessons from Ukraine

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a social learning theory of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda China might be taking [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a social learning theory of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - [China might be taking dangerous lessons]( from Ukraine. - Hooray, [business conventions are back](. - John Paulson is about to [make a mint on pianos](. - Marine [Le Pen est dangereuse]( for France, Europe, the world. Ukraine: What Has China Learned? One reason humans can’t get enough gawking at disasters is that we’re wired to seek survival lessons everywhere. Could I have avoided that?, some part of our excited ape brain asks whenever we see a car accident/tsunami/[“Love Is Blind”]( episode. You might think China’s leadership would be watching Russia’s slow-motion disaster in Ukraine and thinking: Maybe we should avoid that. It turns out taking over a country — say, one that rhymes with “Shmaiwan” — isn’t as easy as it sounds. Countries tend to get annoyed and fight back, while the rest of the world sanctions your economy half to death. Even Germany grew a spine to stand up to Russia — although Andreas Kluth notes that [spine has gone wobbly recently](. But Hal Brands posits Beijing might be taking entirely different lessons from Russia’s failings. Instead of thinking Let’s avoid that, China’s leadership might end up thinking [Let’s not-avoid that even harder](. It may believe Russia’s big mistake was not bringing enough shock and awe to the invasion. Don’t take your eyes off of Shmaiwan just yet. Bonus Ukraine-Reaction Reading: - [Banning Russian tennis players from Wimbledon]( won’t help Ukraine and it might not be fair. Otherwise, fine. — Therese Raphael - Israel must stay on America’s good side but also [can’t cross Russia too much](. — Zev Chafets Living With Covid, at the Airport Radisson Now that Covid is apparently over, what with [Hong Kong](, [Singapore]( and [Thailand]( loosening their restrictions and America ripping off its masks, we can finally get back to doing what we all love: getting drunk and eating rubber chicken with businesspeople at the airport Radisson. Yes, [business conventions are back, baby](, writes Brooke Sutherland, clocking in at roughly 90% of their 2019 levels by one measure. As the call I failed to properly run this morning reminds us, getting medium-to-large-sized groups of people together over Zoom is only slightly less awkward than trying to conduct brain surgery over Zoom. With the proper precautions — haha, who am I kidding — a nice confab can still be the most effective way to network, team-build and embarrass yourself. Bonus Living-With-Covid Reading: If we must rely on home Covid tests, then we [need better guidance on using them](. — Faye Flam Telltale Charts John Paulson is about to hit it big again with [the IPO of the piano-maker Steinway](, Chris Bryant writes. Further Reading Marine Le Pen is [so obviously the wrong choice for France]( that it’s alarming she’s even close. — Bloomberg’s editorial board Maybe if we develop [the equivalent of cyber nukes]( we can have cyber MAD and fewer cyberattacks. — Tim Culpan The Fed only this week [seems to have gotten serious]( about fighting inflation. — Jenny Paris ICYMI The U.S. [walked out of the World Bank/IMF]( meeting to protest Russia. Exxon [bans the LGBTQ Pride flag](. Backlash ensues. The hot [new shortage is lithium](. Kickers [Invasive pear trees]( may or may not be a “menace” “worse than murder hornets.” (h/t Mike Smedley) [Bacteria may be telling you]( what you want to eat. Can you slow global warming? Play the [climate change game](. How to [resurrect a coral reef](. Notes: Please send invasive pears and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022