Plus: The housing market shuts people out. [Bloomberg](
Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an unhappy family of Bloomberg Opinionâs opinions. [Sign up here](. Todayâs Agenda - A recession is coming! [Or is it](?
- Big Oil might want to [start pumping oil](.
- In Ukraine, women are [bearing the brunt]( of war crimes
- Low-income buyers are [shut out of the housing market](.
Nobody Knows Anything, Recession Edition If a troubled economy is like an unhappy family, and if every unhappy family is unhappy in [its own way](, then todayâs economy is like if the Addams Family and the Sopranos formed a three-way Brady Bunch with the Manson family. Beset by plague, war, ships that [canât stop]( getting stuck [in things](, and a Fed newly determined to crush inflation, it feels as if this economy is cruising for a bruising the likes of which we havenât seen since 2008 or maybe even 1982. Economists are swapping recession forecasts like Pokémon cards, and markets are nervous. Even China, which helped the global economy chug through the past couple of recessions, is too busy [dealing with its own Covid-induced slump]( this time, writes Dan Moss. But [before we retreat to our bomb shelters](, itâs worth taking some deep breaths, Robert Burgess writes. Almost nobody â not even Bloomberg Opinionâs own [recession-spotter]( Bill Dudley â sees a downturn happening this year. Thereâs just too much momentum and stimulus money sloshing around. Beyond that? Good luck guessing the future courses of the pandemic, Ukraine war and supply-chain disasters, and then plugging those into the chaos of a sprawling, messy global economy. Into that quantum soup of uncertainty you also must toss financial markets, which influence economic growth but also respond to expectations about that same growth. John Authers raises the [possibility we are reading markets all wrong](, as illustrated by the Nasdaq skyrocketing 2% a day after a Fed official idly speculated about jacking up interest rates by a nearly unheard-of 75 basis points in one shot. What on Earth? Either markets have lost their minds like the rest of us have, or they are crunching all these inputs in ways we canât fathom and seeing an outcome that is not apocalyptic. Speaking of unhappy families, âNobody Knows Anythingâ was the title of a Sopranos [episode](, but before that it was a [famous quote]( by screenwriter William Goldman about the impossibility of predicting Hollywood hits and flops. It could also apply to our confidence in any predictions about this economy. Big Oilâs Big Conundrum Hereâs another thing simple economic models probably couldnât predict: Oil producers are swimming in oceans of cash reaped from soaring oil and gas prices, Liam Denning writes, but [they refuse to pump more of the stuff](. See you in Hell, laws of supply and demand. The real law here is the energy sectorâs shareholder base, which will never let oil companies forget that wild Vegas-style binge where they blew all their money on new wells and fancy Stetson hats just before prices crashed. The energy sector is also in no hurry to give President Joe Biden a boost by lowering prices ahead of the midterms, Javier Blas notes. But politics is a double-edged sword. Natural-gas prices are rising in the U.S. partly because [Biden is shipping LNG to Europe]( to help wean it from Russian gas. Frackers could assist both the war effort and American consumers by pumping more. Not exactly Americaâs sweetheart to begin with, does this industry really want to be accused of both profiting from and helping Russiaâs war? The War Crime That Almost Always Goes Unpunished To Russiaâs long and growing list of war crimes in Ukraine, add the fact that Vladimir Putinâs troops are [systematically raping women]( as a way to terrorize and subjugate the population, writes Ruth Pollard. This is a depressingly familiar tactic in war, and even in modern times it is seldom punished. But the world has a chance to do better now. In what may be the [least-foggy war]( in history, we can learn about and be infuriated by such atrocities in real time, hopefully inspiring consequences harsh enough to prevent such acts in the future. Further Ukraine Reading: The [Moskvaâs sinking is a lesson for all navies](: Your ships arenât as safe as you think. â James Stavridis Telltale Charts The housing market is [especially punishing to low-income buyers]( these days, writes Jonathan Levin. Many may never be able to buy a house and all the wealth-creating potential it provides. Further Reading [Sri Lankaâs crisis is a political]( as well as financial one. â Bloombergâs editorial board [Breath tests could make rapid Covid screening]( of large groups possible. â Lisa Jarvis The [SECâs gag rule]( doesnât seem to be fairly applied. â Noah Feldman [Bidenâs approval rating seems to rise]( and fall with the pandemic and inflation. â Jonathan Bernstein [Lifting the federal mask mandate]( will be a political boon to the Democrats. â Matt Yglesias [Lax treatment of drug use]( explains a surge in crime. â Jim Hinch ICYMI Netflix [lost a bunch of subscribers](. Putin ordered [Russian companies to delist]( foreign shares. Pittsburgh has been [deemed]( the worldâs [most affordable housing market](. Kickers New [millipede is named for Taylor Swift](. (h/t Mike Smedley) Scientists invent electric [chopsticks that make food seem saltier](. [Cutting salt doesnât help heart patients](, a study has shown. Google's â[inclusive warningsâ feature]( wants to edit MLK but not David Duke. Notes: Please send electric chopsticks and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter.
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