How Russia’s war in Ukraine could get even worse

Plus: Elon Musk bought a Twitter stake. [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a widening gyre of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Until we stop buying Russia’s oil, its [war crimes will continue](. - Elon Musk probably [won’t be passive with Twitter](. - Fox News viewers are [open to persuasion](. - Americans [don’t have enough for retirement](. Things Fall Apart It’s pretty cliched to quote any line from“[The Second Coming](,” much less the one about how “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” But sometimes the reference is unavoidable. The war in Ukraine is such a time. The world has known for weeks Russia was committing war crimes in Ukraine. This was even predictable, given all the war crimes Russia previously committed in [Chechnya]( and Syria. But only after we saw images of atrocities in the town of Bucha, which Ukraine recently recaptured from retreating Russian forces, did we seem to get more [serious]( about stopping them … by talking about maybe sanctioning Russia a tiny bit more. There’s good reason to question [whether these new sanctions will be painful enough]( to force Russia to end the war, writes Clara Ferreira Marques. The only thing that might meet such a standard would be for Europe to stop buying Russian fossil fuels. That doesn’t seem to be on the table yet. While we wait for that conviction to congeal, the atrocities continue apace. Even if Europe comes around to inflicting real economic pain on Russia, Vladimir Putin has incentives, and the passionate intensity, to [keep the war going for a long, brutal time](, warns Niall Ferguson, or even to double down on his crimes with chemical or nuclear attacks. The Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, currently doing Putin’s dirty work in Ukraine, exemplifies a lot about the mentality here, writes, Clara Ferreira Marques in a second column: [He too is a desperate, overhyped tyrant]( perfectly willing to trash human decency to cling to power. Hal Brands suggests threats of U.S. military intervention [might have stopped Putin]( from launching the war in the first place. Guess we’ll never know. But even after seeing pictures of the horrors in Bucha, how many Americans are ready to risk World War III over it? And this is a nuance Yeats’s poem doesn’t capture: Being averse to nuclear war is a perfectly reasonable non-conviction to have. In the long, long run, Russia will probably lose its battle for a new empire. Even its [scheme for an alternative financial system]( built on rubles, bitcoin and chicken wire will probably fail just as a similar system helped bankrupt the USSR, writes Izabella Kaminska. But such failures usually don’t happen overnight. And you know what John Maynard Keynes said about the long, [long run]( (speaking of cliches). In the meantime, expect more anarchy to be loosed upon the world. Bonus Ukraine Reading: The war [keeps being bad news for China](. — James Stavridis Elon Musk’s New Toy Last month, Twitter power-user Elon Musk rummaged around in his couch cushions for a few billion dollars and bought … a [huge stake]( in Twitter. The regulatory filing Musk used to announce this is typically one you use when you [just plan on being a potted plant]( in the boardroom, Matt Levine notes. But come on. Given all the complaining Musk does about Twitter, usually on Twitter, few people doubt he wants to be more than a potted plant. At the very least, Tim O’Brien writes, Musk’s large and potentially growing stake in the company could make management [think twice about clamping down on misinformation]( and harassment as it has done in recent years, often to Musk’s displeasure. And it’s hard to imagine the self-proclaimed [Technoking]( of Tesla not opting to flex his power. Bonus Activism Reading: Bill [Ackman is settling down and avoiding fights](, but markets need more activism. — Chris Hughes The Persuadables Once upon a time, Americans had this wacky idea that facts and strong arguments could change voters’ minds. Then Fox News came along, and we all settled into warring political camps who seldom hear the same arguments, much less facts. After that, each side decided the other was hopelessly unpersuadable. But a new study suggests facts may still have some power. Matthew Yglesias writes about a study in which several Fox News viewers who were paid to watch CNN [actually came around to some wild left-wing ideas](, for instance that America didn’t have the world’s best response to Covid and many Joe Biden voters don’t enjoy seeing police officers get shot. Liberals may not be able to shut down Fox News, but maybe they could change some minds by appearing on it. Bonus Fox Reading: [Fox has ruined the GOP]( by making it care more about pleasing Fox than about winning elections. — Jonathan Bernstein Telltale Charts Saving for retirement is too hard, and [most Americans are failing at it](, warns Bloomberg’s editorial board. Chinese fast-fashion upstart [Shein is challenging H&M and Zara](, in a sign of how quickly the retail landscape can change these days, writes David Fickling. Further Reading [Businesses and conservatives are decoupling]( as the latter favor nationalism and populism over free markets. — Adrian Wooldridge Deglobalization and decarbonization will mean [government intervention replaces market action]( in the energy sector. — Liam Denning [China has sanction-proofed its companies]( by burrowing them deep into the global supply chain. — Shuli Ren Turns out [telling single mothers to get married]( doesn’t help them economically. — Kathryn A. Edwards How much should you [put down on a house these days](? It depends. — Alexis Leondis ICYMI Area crypto billionaire [wants to give it all away](. Donald Trump’s [Truth Social app is falling apart](. Apple employees [aren’t thrilled with its RTO policy](. Kickers Who [really wrote the pledge of allegiance](? (h/t Ellen Kominers) New [high-res images of the Sun]( just dropped. Why do [Victorians get such a bum rap](? How to find the [good photos on your phone](. Notes: Please send photos and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022