Europe needs to show some spine to Putin

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Gucci-agnostic collection of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda Europe needs to le [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Gucci-agnostic collection of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Europe [needs to lead]( on Russia. - Investors’ best defense [is a good offense](. - [Holding Ukraine won’t be easy]( for Putin. - Jackson will bring [a fresh perspective to the Supreme Court](. Gucci Loafers There is no easy way to talk about money when people’s lives are at stake. Ukrainians are huddling in basements, their president is [worried for his own life](, and thousands of anxious people are trying to escape, some of them [by foot](. And yet … narrow financial interests are, as always, a big driver of the global response to this war. Look no further than the fact that [Gucci loafers]( from Italy could get a carve-out in the EU’s sanctions package. Part of the problem for Western leaders is that punishing energy-rich Russia means hitting their own citizens where it hurts — their pockets. That is especially true for Europe, whose [banks with large exposures to Russian assets]( have been punished by markets, as Paul Davies notes. In responding to Vladimir Putin’s threat, Europe faces a catch-22: To save itself from Russian expansionism later, it has to inflict maximum pain on itself now. That’s why it’s crucial Europe lead the way with deeper sanctions than have been imposed so far, Paul argues. That could include a lot more than cutting Russia off from Gucci loafers. Europe’s not alone in depending on Russia. Spiking oil prices are a reminder that American energy independence is still an elusive goal. We may produce more oil and gas than we need, but we still feel [pain at the pump]( when the global supply is affected, writes Justin Fox. Still, America doesn’t face as much pain as Germany, which now relies more than necessary on Russian fossil fuels due to [its shortsighted decision]( to close its nuclear plants, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board. It’s just one telling example of a European leadership deficit that needs to close in a hurry. Bonus War-and-Commerce Reading: [Tech sanctions might not bite much](, but they’re still important. — Tim Culpan and Tae Kim Invasion? What Invasion? Putin may have just started the largest conventional war in Europe since World War II, but you wouldn’t know it looking at the Nasdaq 100 index, which is up more than 4% in the past two days. What could possibly be making investors so optimistic about a war that’s exacerbating geopolitical tensions and even directly affecting — as Tae Kim points out — a [vital component of the chipmaking process](? It seems, writes Aaron Brown, investors remembered the [“best defense is a good offense.”]( Meaning: buy the rumor, sell the fact. War may be destructive, but it can reward investors on the winning side, he writes. As John Authers points out, [plenty of research papers]( in the past two weeks have noted that the great majority of geopolitically driven selloffs since 1945 proved to be buying opportunities. But what if this time is the exception? When this war began, the world’s central banks were raising interest rates to curb inflation. This conflict threatens more inflation. Perhaps the historic example to go by is the Arab-Israeli war in 1973. Back then, inflation was already high so there was nothing the Fed could do about it, John writes. Sound familiar? This Could Be Messy Putin seems likely to capture Kyiv and topple Ukraine’s government in short order. His real problems will begin once Kyiv falls, writes Clara Ferreira Marques. It seems hard to imagine [Ukraine turning into a docile, loyal neighbor]( anytime soon, she writes. Whether the war is quick or a drawn-out occupation, it likely won’t be easily contained, [with spillover effects]( on everything from the global economy to cyberspace, writes Hal Brands. Even more concerning, Putin’s actions could lead to hardening fault lines, such as the Russia-Chinese alignment against the West. Yet there’s a silver lining: If the democratic community sticks together, as it did during the Korean war, then this conflict could actually fortify the existing order by “showing that efforts to break it will not pay,” Hal writes. Historic Justice There’s more to Joe Biden’s decision to pick Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson than her being the first Black female justice of the Supreme Court. She is a highly qualified former federal public defender and judge. But being a historical first [does carry significance too](, writes Noah Feldman. Great examples such as Thurgood Marshall, Sandra Day O’Connor and Louis Brandeis left a lasting imprint on the court in ways that were “unquestionably connected to their distinct personal experiences and perspectives.” Their worldviews shaped the way they interpret the Constitution. Jackson’s experiences as an African-American woman and as someone who had an uncle imprisoned on a drug felony will matter — in a way that goes beyond her elite educational background (she and Noah went to Harvard together) and her impressive resume. Telltale Charts The U.S. [aerospace sector is making progress digging out]( from the pandemic slump as demand rebounds, but its supply-chain and labor challenges are still far from over, writes Brooke Sutherland. [Ralph Lauren could help increase LVMH’s U.S. sales](, which stood at 26% of overall revenue in 2021, a year when the American luxury market’s growth outpaced that of China, writes Andrea Felsted. Further Reading Congress should [think twice before splurging](. — Bloomberg’s editorial board The Ukraine war is leading to [a rise in online misinformation](. — Parmy Olson Biden’s [approval numbers are perking up]( just a bit. — Jonathan Bernstein Brazil’s Bolsonaro is accelerating the [country’s brain drain](. — David Wainer ICYMI Russian punk band Pussy Riot is [raising money]( for Ukraine. China [tells Putin]( to negotiate with Ukraine. Russian [jets and superyachts]( are roaming free. Kickers Radiation is [spiking around Chernobyl](. How to [learn French in 12 months](. [Low-meat diets may reduce cancer]( risk, a study has shown. The [future is fungi](. Notes:  Please send fungi and comments to David Wainer at dwainer3@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022