Ukraine can’t escape Putin’s mind

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an all-war edition of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda Ukraine’s impending forever [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an all-war edition of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Ukraine’s [impending forever war]( - The U.S. pandemic’s [fratricidal Black war]( - The [Democrats’ uncivil war]( - The [U.K.’s Covid war]( Inside Vladimir Putin’s Id The pain in Ukraine comes mainly from the fevered brain of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Exhibit A would be the [rambling speech]( he gave justifying his decision to recognize and support the separatist republics of Eastern Ukraine. Drenched in grievance and resentment at the West and righteous revanchism over Russia’s lost glory, this “extraordinary rant” left Leonid Bershidsky with a “sinking feeling” that Putin’s “hatred” for Ukraine means that even if he forgoes a full-blown invasion, [he won’t give up undermining the neighboring country](. Meanwhile, Putin’s dispatch of troops to provide “peacekeeping” protection to the separatists will leave Ukraine in a state of suspended conflict, in which some mishap or miscalculation with Russian forces across the line could trigger a major mass-casualty assault and the end of Ukrainian sovereignty.  The U.S. and its allies will have to calibrate their response to maximize its deterrence value. The good news, according to Hal Brands, is that over the course of this crisis, the U.S. has [displayed admirable chops at information warfare](, releasing an unprecedented amount of intelligence to solidify support, expose Russian disinformation and put Putin on the back foot. The bad news is that Putin can still use Europe’s dependence on Russian energy to drive a wedge into the alliance against him. The EU relies on Russia for 40% of its gas, for instance. As Lionel Laurent points out, nations such as Italy have floated the idea of [excluding energy from sanctions](, which would fracture any unified Western response. Even the U.S. is not immune to Russian pressure on energy: One in 12 of the barrels of oil it imported in early February came from Russia. As Liam Denning argues, with President Joe Biden’s eye on mid-term elections and rising gas prices, he has [good reason to think hard about targeting Russia’s energy industry](. Whether through sanctions or disruptive armed conflict, disorder in the energy and financial markets would also make the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation [that much more complicated](, adds Mohamed A. El-Erian. Covid Is Fueling Black-on-Black Violence A lot of people have died since fighting began in Ukraine in 2014: about 14,000, of whom more than [3,000 were civilians](. What if I told you that was a walk in the park compared with what happened to Black Americans over the same period? In just 2020 alone, there were 13,645 Black homicide victims. And that pandemic year marked the beginning of a huge spike in Black homicides, which greatly outstripped those of other races. The majority of those killed were men aged 15 through 44. As Justin Fox notes in his [stark look at the these numbers](, the available data suggest young Black men are the main killers of young Black men. (Police killed 249 Black Americans in 2020, or 1.8% of that year’s total.) The homegrown pandemic murder wave is an emergency that must be treated with much greater urgency than it currently commands, and with greater honesty not just about what causes these deaths, but what can be done to prevent them. Progs Versus Rockers By the Bay And while we’re on the subject of reality checks and jarring truths, how about that recall of the three San Francisco school board members by margins of nearly three to one? Perhaps it’s my days as a penurious scribbler in Oakland — where like Tantalus I stood with the goat cheese and chardonnay forever receding out of reach — but I always savor a bit of schadenfreude when reality hits the high-falutin’, self-regarding multicultural wonderland columnist Herb Caen christened “Baghdad by the Bay.” By most accounts, the board members got the hook from angry parents for not moving quickly enough to re-open schools, focusing instead on renaming them and dismantling the merit-based admissions at star-powered Lowell High School. Former New York City Mayor and current Bloomberg LP owner Michael Bloomberg sees the recall as a harbinger of more [earthquakes to come](, with the Democrats bound to lose the midterms unless they can persuade voters they’re focused more on solving practical problems than on fighting the culture wars. It’s a strain of thinking [gathering strength]( among a certain kind of Democrat. But I suspect it will take a massive and costly electoral defeat before a new stasis will be achieved. Telltale Charts Boris Johnson’s decision to fast-forward the lifting of the U.K.’s Covid restrictions is pretty convenient for a leader whose political fortunes are in even more disarray than his coiffure. But as Therese Raphael notes, he also [has solid science]( on his side, thanks to the country’s high vaccination rates and other pandemic prophylactic measures. Meanwhile, restless world travelers seem to be bucking for some of that BoJo mojo on lifting Covid restrictions. U.S. travelers in particular are keen to dust off their seven-league boots. They just need to be prepared to [cope with higher prices](, says Andrea Felsted. Further Reading The FDIC’s outgoing chief innovation officer is hopping mad about the federal bureaucracy’s [hostility and ignorance toward technology](. — Sultan Meghji How to survive in the skeevy new world of “finfluencers,” who know exactly what you should do with your money, [for a price](. — Erin Lowry Porsche could be, well, the [Porsche of initial public offerings](. — Chris Bryant Consumer goods giant Unilever brims with good intentions, big promises to shareholders … and [really ugly financial surprises](. — Chris Hughes Cities like London need to reduce car traffic and pollution. But [ramping up “congestion charges” won’t work]( unless you improve the density of public transit networks. — Mark Buchanan ICYMI Turns out you can catch [Omicron twice](. The recruit-hungry Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Police Department is looking for [a few good New York City straphangers](. Davy Jones’s Locker will need a new garage to accommodate [$401 million worth of Porsches, Audis, Bentleys and Lamborghinis](. Quelle Surprise: Donald Trump’s new social media network Truth Social [is off to a rocky start](, complete with complaints about its copycat logo. Notwithstanding Elon Musk’s denials, Tesla’s new factory in Germany threatens to [deplete]( Brandenburg’s water supply. Kickers Scientists discover the International Space Station does [strange things]( to your brain. Sheesh, [Major Tom]( could have told them that. (h/t Ellen Kominers) BYU student cooking up homemade rocket fuel [discovers he’s no Werner von Braun](. Breaking Metaverse news: Insurance claims for physical damages caused by wearers of virtual reality headsets [surge]( in the U.K. Breaking animal news: Man [breaks into]( Boston Zoo tiger enclosure, 500-lb bear [breaks into]( more than 30 Lake Tahoe homes, kangaroo [breaks out]( of Danish home. Notes:  Please send homemade rocket fuel and complaints to James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram](, [TikTok](, [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. 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