China and the U.S. must face harsh truths about each other

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Bizarro World Brady Bunch of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda China needs the We [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a Bizarro World Brady Bunch of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - China [needs the West](, and the West needs [better nuclear defenses](. - Spotify has [too much power](. - Markets will [be jumpy for a while](. - We’re [running low on oil](. The U.S. and China, somehow, sort of. The U.S. and China Need Family Counseling You can’t exactly call what the U.S. and China are going through a divorce, because the two were never really married. Instead for the past couple of decades they’ve been more like a Bizarro World Brady Bunch, a temporary union of rival clans that now seems to be nastily unwinding.  It’s always the children who suffer the most in these things. And the children in this metaphor, which is admittedly so tortured it violates several Geneva Conventions, are the world’s economy and ability to avoid nuclear winter. So for the sake of these metaphorical children, it’s time for some family counseling. China must realize [it can’t just cut itself off from the West]( economically, writes Minxin Pei. Though it may be condescending and leaves the toilet seat up even after you tell it a million times to put it down, the U.S. is still China’s most important trading partner. A little more self-sufficiency couldn’t hurt China, but shutting down this symbiotic economic relationship would lead to stagnation and unrest. The U.S., meanwhile, must recognize China and its new bestie Russia are [bulking up and modernizing their nuclear arsenals](, writes Hal Brands, ending blissful decades when we could pretend nuclear war was just something [Sting]( sang about. Now we have to re-learn the bananas geometry of nuclear deterrence, where up is down and less is more, like something from an Escher painting. Oh, and don’t forget China’s problem child North Korea, which has its own nuclear arsenal, [a crisis President Joe Biden can no longer ignore](, writes Bloomberg’s editorial board. If the U.S. really wants to top China in a constructive way, [it should let in more skilled immigrants](, especially those from Hong Kong, writes Matt Yglesias. This will make the economy more productive while also setting a good example for the rest of the world. Taking the high road is always better in these breakups, especially when children are involved. Bonus Foreign-Policy Reading: The Ukraine crisis is [making a case for a European military](. — James Stavridis After the Gold Rush, Spotify Edition We get many unhinged PR pitches here at BOT, usually involving NFTs, but a particularly unhinged one today claimed rock legend Neil Young had “reverse assassinated himself” by forcing Spotify to remove his music in protest of Joe Rogan’s Comedy and [Bad Medical Advice]( Hour. In fact, Neil Young is: - still alive (i.e. not reverse-assassinated) and - only [giving up]( about 14% of his streaming and sales revenue and 10% of his publishing revenue in this spat, according to Billboard. Still, the total hit to Young’s income is massive — maybe $754,000 a year. That would hire a lot of [maids](, even at today’s wages. The incident is also a reminder of just how much [power Spotify has over both the music and podcasting]( industrial complexes, writes Lionel Laurent. A lot of people have threatened to leave Spotify over this controversy, and not just Young and Joni Mitchell. These threats even pushed Spotify and Rogan to [admit]( they could do better. (Tyler Cowen argues [nobody in this dispute]( comes out looking good.) The truth, though, is that leaving Spotify is hard to do. Closest rival Apple Music has [notoriously terrible]( UX, and moving your data from app to app is too difficult, Lionel writes. With or without Neil Young, Spotify could use more and better competition. Market Forecast: More Anxiety Stocks today [continued]( to either - dead-cat-bounce or - plow their way to durable new highs. Who knows, really? But the odds seem pretty good this isn’t the end of the selling, with expectations about what the Fed will do to interest rates [changing almost by the hour](, as John Authers notes. A week ago we expected maybe [four]( rate increases this year. Now we’re up to maybe [seven](. Structural factors alone, including thin liquidity and the influence of ETFs, will [keep markets jumpy for a while](, too, writes Mohamed El-Erian. Nor does it help that we [can no longer rely on credit markets]( to be our coal-mine canaries, writes Lisa Abramowicz. They’re too ’roided up with Fed largesse to be truly sensitive to looming disasters, ironically. Bonus Looming-Disaster Reading: - A supply shortage has [morphed into an inventory glut]( that will weigh on growth just as the Fed tightens. — Gary Shilling - [Sovereign debt needs more transparency]( if we’re to avoid a crisis. — Bill Dudley Telltale Charts OPEC+ [keeps not supplying enough oil]( to the world, warns Julian Lee. Further Reading The Supreme Court will look hypocritical if it [kills Roe v. Wade in the name of judicial restraint]( before launching a campaign of judicial activism. — Noah Feldman Donald Trump this weekend made it even clearer why [we need Jan. 6 committee hearings ASAP](. — Jonathan Bernstein Boris Johnson has [made life much easier for Labour](, but maybe not enough for Keir Starmer to capitalize. — Therese Raphael [Quant investing strategies proved their mettle]( during the pandemic. — Aaron Brown The startup boom is good because we [need to take more economic risks](. — Allison Schrager More and more [companies are keeping people’s faceprints](, opening the door to misuse and mishandling. — Parmy Olson ICYMI Will the omicron wave [cause a long-Covid wave](? [Teen tracking Elon Musk’s jet]( plans to make a business of it. For sale: a [$380,000 Kansas missile silo](. The [New York Times bought Wordle]( for “low seven figures.” Kickers Our brains keep us [15 seconds in the past](. (h/t Ellen Kominers) Why Britain has [such weird place names](. (h/t Alistair Lowe) [Moderna’s HIV vaccine]( has begun human trials. The internet is [totally different with ad blockers](. Notes: Please send low seven figures and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022