The republic is more resilient than you think

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a non-jeremiad of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda Good news: America is reliving [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a non-jeremiad of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - Good news: America is reliving the [turmoil of 1968](, not 1858. - China and the U.S. have a chance next year for a [course correction](. - Bloomberg Opinion’s columnists juggle their crystal balls. It Could Always Be Worse In mid-1989, shortly before the [collapse of the U.S.S.R.](, an outgoing RAND Corporation Soviet-watcher named Francis Fukuyama captivated the chattering classes with an essay predicting [“The End of History.”]( Short version: The impending demise of communism made the universal triumph of liberal democracy all but inevitable. To borrow from what Wordsworth said about the French Revolution, that would have indeed been “[very heaven](.” But if anything, the rise of autocracies and the political and social turmoil in the U.S. and other democracies in recent years point downward to the very hot place — so much so that jeremiads about the implosion of the American form of government are now seen as surefire clickbait. Bloomberg columnist and Harvard law professor Noah Feldman looks back over two episodes of profound unrest in U.S. history and [takes a more measured view](. In 1858, congressional dysfunction, a feckless president, and a Supreme Court compromised by the infamous Dred Scott v. Sandford case left the federal government unable to stanch secessionist moves by Southern states, much less resolve the underlying issue of slavery. Result: the Civil War. A century later, the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. ignited smoldering divisions into riots in more than 100 American cities. The subsequent assassination of Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy led many Americans to believe, as the New York Times later [wrote](, “that the nation had gone mad; that the normal rules and constants of politics could no longer be counted on.” The good news, as Feldman sees it, is that Americans face circumstances that more closely resemble the aftermath of 1968, when conflicting social forces were gradually reconciled and redirected into electoral competition, not stoked into civil war. Notably, Congress and the Supreme Court checked the worst excesses of President Donald Trump’s administration, above all his effort to overturn the results of the 2020 election. “It doesn’t look as if our political institutions are headed for an 1858 kind of breakdown,” writes Feldman. “The tougher medium-term question is whether the Trump supporters’ condemnation of our institutions, which isn’t susceptible to either change or cooptation, is deep and durable enough to erode them.” China and the U.S. Should Take a Chill Pill Not to harp on Fukuyama, but as many commentators [have noted](, his initial essay also misread the trajectory of what has become the world’s leading autocracy. (To wit, he wrote in 1989: “The central issue is the fact that the People’s Republic of China can no longer act as a beacon for illiberal forces around the world.”) As in 2021, one of the defining challenges for years if not decades to come will be managing tensions between the U.S. and China. Fortunately, says former supreme allied commander of NATO James Stavridis, “2022 may turn out to be a bit of a breather.” President Xi Jinping will be focused on making the February Winter Olympics a success, keeping Covid under control, and preparing for the 20th Communist Party Congress. “The U.S. should take advantage of this year of living quietly by taking the time to consider all aspects of its relationship with China,” [writes]( Stavridis. That means finally publishing the National Security Council’s overarching strategy, which must enable the U.S. to confront China even as it seeks to cooperate on threats such as climate change. One area where the two superpowers need to put down their dukes is in financial markets, where interventions “can have far-reaching consequences that are hard to undo,” [argues]( Bloomberg’s editorial board. Any new U.S. measures “should be clear, narrow and targeted to protect U.S. investors and national security, not simply to undermine China’s economy.” Calling All Crystal-Ball Jugglers Things to do in Idaho. Photograph: David Rush Every year brings remarkable milestones, including in a pastime that seems almost ideally suited to a stay-at-home pandemic: An Idaho man [juggled blindfolded]( for more than 30 minutes, beating the world record (which he had previously set). Yes, but was he juggling crystal balls? Because that’s what we’re going to do right here, right now, in this paragraph. Andrea Felsted predicts that [2022 may be a rougher year]( for consumer spending, while Marcus Ashworth explains why it could also be a [harder year to make money](. David Fickling sees [wind and solar capacity rising]( about 50% over their pre-pandemic levels, but no recovery in upstream oil and gas spending. Whether that means the world turns a corner on carbon emissions depends on China’s energy choices. Shuli Ren will be watching next year to see whether China’s billionaires and Xi can reconcile their conflicting economic agendas and [make nice](. Balls down. Further Reading The SEC is going [too easy on insider trading](. — Michelle Leder Joe Biden’s future may [lie in the hands of Mitt Romney](. — Karl W. Smith The [growing rift]( between former BFFs Saudi Arabia and the UAE was one of this year’s biggest stories. — Bobby Ghosh A fourth Covid shot may be a [jab too far]( most Israelis. — Zev Chafets ICYMI Vladimir Putin just got rid of a [very big thorn]( in his side. What’s the secret to peak productivity? It starts with a sheet of [paper](. [Ten ways]( cities came back in 2021. Dubai has a [dirty gold]( problem. Kickers Ice loss in the Arctic could be [adding fuel to infernos]( in the Western U.S. Maybe it was [good]( that your flight just got cancelled. Amenhotep I is now ready for his [computed tomography close-up](. Notes: Please send juggling tips and complaints to James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022