We may be at peak inflation. Now how do we get down?

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a cheesemonger of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here.Today’s Agenda We’re at peak inflation. Now ho [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a cheesemonger of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Agenda - We’re at peak inflation. Now [how do we get down](? - A rising economy [lifts all New Jerseys](. - Keep [guns out of kids' hands](. - [Crypto FOMO is a no-no](. Whip Inflation Now-Ish As if 2021 weren’t apocalyptic enough already, it’s ending on a [cream-cheese shortage](, caused by a perfect cheese storm involving a cyberattack on one of the country’s largest cheesemongers and shortages in cheese-making supplies, workers and truckers. In short, as my colleague Stacey Shick [put it](, this could well be “the most 2021 story.” Unfortunately, though, this [Wallace and Gromit]( nightmare could also be a 2022 story. Today we learned the consumer price index skyrocketed in November at its highest rate since “[Eye of the Tiger](” topped the Billboard charts. It could have been worse, was the general market [response](, and there are plenty of reasons to expect [this might be about the worst of it](, John Authers writes. The trouble is, there’s a huge difference between peaking and reversing (at least for supply constraints; not so much for Survivor, which peaked and reversed with “Eye of the Tiger”). Like this year’s mascot, the cargo ship Ever Given, [turning global supply-chains around takes a loooooooooong]( time, Brooke Sutherland writes. And if the omicron variant causes more shutdowns at factories and docks, then those problems will just get worse again. The bond market expects this inflation to be a distant, bad memory five years from now, and it’s almost certainly right. The question is how we [get from point “cream-cheese shortage” to Point B](, writes Brian Chappatta. Will inflation fade quickly as the supply chain unkinks? Or is it sticky enough to require active Fed intervention? The Fed can’t unload cargo ships, but it can raise rates enough to quell the kind of consumer demand driving prices higher even in the non-energy and non-cream-cheese parts of CPI. Doing this without causing a recession will be the tricky part, and Gary Shilling warns [recent inventory buildups could be an early warning]( of one.  In any event, we’ll [still be talking about inflation](, maybe even more angrily, for a while in 2022, John Authers notes in a second column. It might already be [sinking]( President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda — though even hawks agree BBB has nothing to do with inflation. Maybe by then we’ll at least have some cream cheese for the pain. States Righted The ironic thing is that all this inflation is partly [the heat]( generated by what is a booming economy in many other ways. It’s so strong that even [fiscal basket cases such as Illinois and New Jersey]( have been magically turned around, writes Conor Sen. Tax revenues are soaring, and these states are still sitting on many billions in unspent infrastructure dollars. Those will keep their citizens employed — and, in the case of New Jerseyans, maybe crossing the Hudson River in something other than rat-drawn wooden carts through [leaky tubes]( — for years to come. It’s Too Easy for Kids to Get Guns In 17 U.S. states, there is no law holding gun owners liable for what happens if their kids can access their guns. One of those states is Michigan, where a kid recently used one of his parents’ unlocked guns to shoot up his high school, killing four children. The parents have been charged with involuntary manslaughter, perhaps to deter other parents from being as lax about gun safety. But Bloomberg’s editorial board suggests it might prevent many more tragedies to tighten up those laws about [keeping guns out of kids’ hands]( in the first place. Can we at least agree on that simple gun regulation? Further Reading Investors [succumbing to crypto FOMO should beware]( the regulatory environment grows more hostile by the day. — Lionel Laurent The Supreme Court should let [Congress access Donald Trump’s Jan. 6 records](. — Tim O’Brien [Expanding the House,]( as some want, would make it even more centralized and less effective. — Jonathan Bernstein Here are four ideas for [keeping Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine](. — James Stavridis What the baseball strike tells us about [unions and the superstar economy](. — Allison Schrager ICYMI Omicron is [mild for the vaccinated so far](. The DOJ is probing [hedge-fund short-selling](. The “Sex and the City” reboot [was a spoiler for Peloton](. Kickers People just [can’t get enough of Spam](. (h/t Mike Smedley) [Insects are more sensitive]( than they seem. New [eye drops could replace eyeglasses](. Pitchfork’s [50 best albums of 2021](. Notes:  Please send eye drops and complaints to Mark Gongloff at mgongloff1@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. Like Bloomberg Opinion Today? [Subscribe to Bloomberg All Access and get much, much more](. You’ll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Bloomberg Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022