[Bloomberg](
Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Get Jonathan Bernsteinâs newsletter every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe.]( If my recent [wild speculation]( was correct and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell actually wants to blow up the filibuster, it appears he may get his way. The good news in that event: Itâs very unlikely that the U.S. government will actually breach the debt limit and cause a crippling default. Possible, but unlikely. The Republicansâ official position, remember, is that the debt limit should be raised but that they should also do everything in their power to prevent it from happening. Specifically, theyâre not only voting against an increase (which is fine, and which out-parties have done numerous times) but filibustering any bill that would do whatâs necessary. Theyâre advising â if thatâs the correct word? â Democrats to use the fairly complicated reconciliation procedure to raise the debt limit by a simple majority. But without any assurances from Republicans that theyâll agree to streamline this process, which has a variety of potential foot-dragging options, Democrats canât be sure that theyâll beat the Oct. 18 deadline. Until recently, the Democratsâ official position was that they would only proceed with a regular bill, subject to a Senate filibuster, and so Republicans would just have to back down and allow it. But by Tuesday evening, it appeared that [they were at least considering]( the option of a âneutron bombâ or âtactical nukeâ approach â that is, carving out an exception in the filibuster exclusively for raising the debt limit. There was talk of a temporary âtime bombâ that would allow a majority to act for 24 hours or so. Even West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin gave a somewhat less definitive ânoâ on the question than he usually does. Which brings us back to McConnellâs preferences. From 2011 to 2013, Republicans repeatedly either refused compromises that would keep the filibuster intact for judicial and executive-branch nominations, or agreed to compromises and then backed away from them. Eventually, Democrats had little choice but to go ânuclearâ and impose changes by majority vote â a reform that worked well for McConnell and the Republicans during Donald Trumpâs presidency. (Itâs slightly more complicated. The Democrats exempted Supreme Court nominations from the 2013 change, so it remained necessary to reach 60 votes to beat a filibuster for those confirmations. Republicans changed that immediately when Democrats filibustered Neil Gorsuchâs nomination in 2017. Whatâs not entirely clear is whether McConnell wouldâve had the votes that year to impose the change had Democrats not acted in 2013; it seems likely, but with a 52-seat majority, itâs at least possible that three Republican senators wouldâve been reluctant to act. Once Democrats overhauled Senate procedures first, the second reform became inevitable.) So far, at least, thereâs [no hint]( that the executive branch will invoke any of the never-before-used procedures that have been proposed to avoid the debt limit altogether. Itâs possible that President Joe Biden might reverse that course as the danger gets closer. But Senate Democrats may well act first. They wouldnât end the legislative filibuster, but they might just punch a hole in it. Why would McConnell like that? For one thing, the filibuster doesnât just protect minorities from legislation they donât like; it also protects senators in the majority party from votes they donât want to take. If Democrats vote to establish a filibuster exception for the debt limit, pressure will increase to do the same for every party priority â including those that lack the votes to pass. If Republicans win House and Senate majorities next year, they may also be able to force Biden to veto lots of things heâd rather not veto in the run-up to the 2024 election. Of course, a future Republican majority could blow up the filibuster regardless of what Democrats do now, but McConnell probably thinks itâll be easier if Democrats act first. That said, there are downsides. Thereâs always the risk that Democrats could pass more items during the current Congress than they would if the filibuster was fully intact. And if McConnell is majority leader in a filibuster-free future, heâll lose a way to protect his marginal senators from casting tough votes themselves. It could be that McConnell really doesnât want Democrats to touch the filibuster right now, and is just convinced they wonât do so no matter how much Republicans provoke them. But it sure seems to me that heâs pushing them to eliminate the procedure. 1. Sarah Binder at the Monkey Cage on [raising the debt limit](. 2. Michele Swers on [the same topic](. 3. Julia Azari on the [disputatious, but not dysfunctional, Democrats](. Exactly correct. Iâd add that even if they canât reach an agreement on the two major bills theyâre working on, itâs much more a function of their tiny majorities than a sign of inability to govern. 4. Matthew Green at Mischiefs of Faction on what happens [when politicians learn things that are not true](. 5. Nate Persily on [regulating Facebook Inc](. 6. Dan Dreznerâs not-especially-friendly reaction to [compliments from China](. 7. Perry Bacon Jr. on the [two big Democratic bills](. Not sure I agree on his first point â weâll see how successful Democratic leaders will be! â but the rest is solid. 8. Annie Lowrey on [Biden and trade](. 9. Adam Serwer on [the war in Afghanistan](. 10. And here at Bloomberg Opinion, David Wilcox on [eliminating the debt limit](. Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. [Click here to subscribe](. Also subscribe to [Bloomberg All Access]( and get much, much more. Youâll receive our unmatched global news coverage and two in-depth daily newsletters, the Bloomberg Open and the Bloomberg Close.
Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Early Returns newsletter.
[Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices](
Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022